Nanda Nanthakumaran

Real estate portfolio diversification by property type and region

Analyses data from the USA and UK to determine whether diversification within a region by property type is better than diversification between regions within a property type. Compares both strategies to full diversification by both property type and region. Calculates and compares property type and regional correlation matrices. Produces efficient frontiers and calculates principal components to determine if there are dominant property type or regional dimensions to real estate returns. Suggests that for the USA a purely retail portfolio diversified over all regions would have been almost as effective as a fully diversified portfolio. In the UK, there is less diversity across regions within retail property. Overall, there is no simple conclusion applicable to all regions and all property types in either country.

The allocation to property in the multi‐asset portfolio: The evidence and theory reconsidered

Summary Studies which use modern portfolio theory (MPT) to calculate the optimal allocation to property in a multi‐asset portfolio are fundamentally flawed. These suggest optimal theoretical allocations for property which are much higher than actual allocations to property. Criticism can be made of: the exclusion of other eligible assets from the analysis; the use of a mean‐variance optimization technique on estimated data; the inadequacies of the historical data which understates risk and correlation and may overstate return; the changing characteristics of property as an investment; the indivisibility of property and the consequent difficulties in achieving a diversified property portfolio; the complexity of risk as a concept compared to the simple and simplistic definition used in MPT; and the omission of explicit consideration of differential liquidity. An alternative which offers a more practicable framework for decision‐making is a combination of econometric techniques to forecast income under diffe...

The short term inflation hedging characteristics of UK real estate

This study investigates the short-term inflation-hedging characteristics of U.K. real estate compared to other U.K. investments. It considers not only total returns but also changes in income and changes in capital values. The analyses are undertaken using annual and quarterly data. Stocks, bonds, appraisal-based real estate (including the three property types, separately), and real estate stocks are considered. Real estate series, constructed from the original appraisal series to take account of autocorrelation, also are used. The methodology is based on that devised by Fama and Schwert (1977) and tests are undertaken for stationarity and structural breaks. Hypotheses are established about the coefficients on expected and unexpected inflation in the model, and these are tested. It is concluded that real estate has poorer short-term hedging characteristics for total return, change in capital value, and change in income than stocks but better characteristics than bonds. However, there is evidence to suggest that the relationships change under different economic environments.

An analysis of valuation variation in the UK commercial property market: Hager and Lord revisited

Addresses the issue of valuation variation. The fundamental research question is to establish the range of valuations which a group of qualified valuers operating in the same market and using the same basic assumptions would produce in their estimation of price. It significantly extends the approach adopted by Hager and Lord and draws conclusions about different market sectors, locations and size of firms. The results of the survey show a wide variation in value across both rack rented and reversionary interests. In terms of the former over 80 per cent of all valuations produced a variation from the mean of less than 20 per cent with a corresponding figure of over 90 per cent for the reversionary investments. These levels of accuracy fall short of the contention that valuers can value to within 5‐10 per cent of market value.

The long‐term inflation‐hedging characteristics of UK commercial property

Based on a multivariate analysis of long‐term total returns and inflation data over the period 1963‐1993, shows that commercial property total returns reflect both expected and unexpected components of inflation in the long term. There is no evidence that property returns systematically provide, on an annual basis, hedging characteristics against either of these components.

The calculation of investment worth – Issues of market efficiency, variable estimation and risk analysis

The Mallinson Report, published in 1994, emphasised the need for valuers to develop expertise for the purpose of estimating the worth of property investments. Implicit in attempts to estimate worth is the assumption that the property market displays some level of inefficiency and that, in such a market, price and worth may diverge. It is believed that astute investors can exploit such inefficiencies in the market to add value to their portfolios. This paper reviews the main issues relating to the calculation of worth. Specifically it examines market efficiency, individual and market worth, and the use of risk analysis in the calculation. Finally, it recommends a shorter analysis period in view of the uncertainty in the estimation of the variables.

Understanding Property Market Dynamics: Insights from Modelling the Supply-Side Adjustment Mechanism

The volatility of commercial property markets in the United Kingdom has stimulated the development of explanatory models of ‘price’ determination. These models have tended to focus on the demand-side as the driver of change. A corollary of this is that, despite the fact that construction lags are known to exacerbate cyclical fluctuations, the supply-side adjustment mechanism has been subject to relatively little research effort. In this paper the authors develop a new model of commercial property markets in the United Kingdom. The model is adapted from Poterbas two-equation asset-market approach to modelling the housing market. The first equation is an arbitrage relationship where the return on property is made up of rent, as determined in the user market for property services, and the capital gain, which is dependent on the return on alternative assets. This can be interpreted as a ‘stock’ demand equation. The second equation explains that ‘flow’ supply is determined by real capital values. The long-run empirical generalisation of the two-equation model allows the authors to estimate two key behavioural parameters required in explaining supply-side adjustment to market change. First, the authors interpret the coefficient on the capital value variable in the supply equation as an estimate of the long-run ‘price’ elasticity of supply. Second, from the demand equation, they estimate the extent to which new supply can act as an ‘automatic stabiliser’ on property values. It is argued that although increases in demand drive up property values, new development is also initiated and will, in turn, dampen down the growth in real capital values. The equations are estimated for the office, industrial, and retail sectors. Although there are no comparable estimates of supply elasticities in the real estate economics literature, the results are generally consistent with prior knowledge. Estimates of the stabiliser effect are also plausible and, taken together, the supply-side parameters help provide insights required in understanding property market dynamics in the last twenty-five years.

A comparison of UK equity and property duration

This paper considers the duration of property and equity. A general formula for duration of asset classes is derived. It is shown that calculations which assume, usually implicitly, that the flowthrough of inflation to cash flow is zero, produce misleadingly high durations for property and equities. These are typically in the range 15-25 years. Simulations using the formulae show that property has some bond-like characteristics. The results indicate that, for realistic flow-through rates, equities have a higher duration than property. The flow-through rate is the most important variable in the estimation of equities. Using historical data, equity duration is estimated at 8.65 years and propertys at 3.15 years. These are substantially lower than those commonly cited. If these values can be substantiated, and if higher values are used in practice, portfolio immunization strategies may need to be reconsidered.

The sensitivity of UK commercial property values to interest rate changes

Duration and convexity measures are commonly applied in the management of bond portfolios to measure the sensitivity of asset values to changes in interest rates, enabling fund managers to manage their exposure to interest rate risk. Yet, there are no commonly accepted methods for applying the concepts of duration and convexity to equities and real estate, making it difficult for fund managers to analyse the exposure of multi-asset portfolios to interest rate risk (Blitzer & Dash, 2004). This paper contributes to this underdeveloped area of interest rate risk management by assessing the accuracy of using duration and convexity to measure the sensitivity of commercial property values in the UK to discount rate movements. Simulations confirm that property has duration and convexity characteristics similar to bonds. Our estimates overlap with duration figures estimated by Cairns and Wilkie (2010) for index-linked British government bonds over 15 years but are higher than their estimates for conventional bonds and five- to 15-year index-linked gilts. Perhaps more importantly, the paper demonstrates that duration is not sufficiently reliable enough to mitigate the interest rate risk attached to a property portfolio. The inclusion of convexity is necessary for effective interest rate immunisation strategies.

Valuation of Varying Profit Rents – Part 1

Concludes an earlier paper by analysing the problems of negative contributions to the sinking fund. Notes that the use of traditional dual rate valuations results in a mathematical error within the valuation and an under‐valuation of the interest. Concludes that should the Chancellor of the Exchequer decide to allow exemptions from tax of sinking fund contributions and income within sinking funds the logic of dual rate valuation would be removed.