Nandan Mukherjee

Vulnerability of Bangladesh to Cyclones in a Changing Climate: Potential Damages and Adaptation Cost

This paper integrates information on climate change, hydrodynamic models, and geographic overlays to assess the vulnerability of coastal areas in Bangladesh to larger storm surges and sea-level rise by 2050. The approach identifies polders (diked areas), coastal populations, settlements, infrastructure, and economic activity at risk of inundation, and estimates the cost of damage versus the cost of several adaptation measures. A 27-centimeter sea-level rise and 10 percent intensification of wind speed from global warming suggests the vulnerable zone increases in size by 69 percent given a +3-meter inundation depth and by 14 percent given a +1-meter inundation depth. At present, Bangladesh has 123 polders, an early warning and evacuation system, and more than 2,400 emergency shelters to protect coastal inhabitants from tidal waves and storm surges. However, in a changing climate, it is estimated that 59 of the 123 polders would be overtopped during storm surges and another 5,500 cyclone shelters (each with the capacity of 1,600 people) to safeguard the population would be needed. Investments including strengthening polders, foreshore afforestation, additional multi-purpose cyclone shelters, cyclone-resistant private housing, and further strengthening of the early warning and evacuation system would cost more than

Cyclones in a Changing Climate : The Case of Bangladesh

2.4 billion with an annual recurrent cost of more than

Climate Proofing Infrastructure in Bangladesh: The Incremental Cost of Limiting Future Inland Monsoon Flood Damage

50 million. However, a conservative damage estimate suggests that the incremental cost of adapting to these climate change related risks by 2050 is small compared with the potential damage in the absence of adaptation measures.

Sea Level Rise and Its Impacts in Coastal Areas of Bangladesh

This paper integrates information on climate-change, hydrodynamic models, and geographic overlays to assess the vulnerability of coastal areas in Bangladesh to larger storm surges and sea-level rise (SLR) by 2050. The approach identifies polders, coastal populations, settlements, infrastructure, and economic activity at risk of inundation, and estimates the damage from storm surge inundation versus the cost of several adaptation measures. A 27-centimetre SLR and 10% intensification of wind speed resulting from global warming suggest that the vulnerable zone increases in size by 69% given a +3-metre inundation depth, and by 14% given a +1-metre inundation depth. Estimates indicate investments including strengthening polders, foreshore afforestation, additional multi-purpose cyclone shelters, cyclone-resistant private housing, and further strengthening of the early warning and evacuation system would cost more than

Climate Change Impacts, Scenario and Vulnerability of Bangladesh

2.4 billion, with an annual recurrent cost of more than

In support of urban adaptation: a participatory assessment process for secondary cities in Vietnam and Bangladesh

50 million. These estimates can serve as a prototype in climate negotiations of the adaptation costs of extreme weather events.

A Range of Approaches to Address Loss and Damage from Climate Change Impacts in Bangladesh

Two-thirds of Bangladesh is less than 5 meters above sea level, making it one of the most flood prone countries in the world. Severe flooding during a monsoon causes significant damage to crops and property, with severe adverse impacts on rural livelihoods. Future climate change seems likely to increase the destructive power of monsoon floods. This paper examines the potential cost of offsetting increased flooding risk from climate change, based on simulations from a climate model of extreme floods out to 2050. Using the 1998 flood as a benchmark for evaluating additional protection measures, the authors calculate conservatively that necessary capital investments out to 2050 would total US

Loss and Damage from the Local Perspective in the Context of a Slow Onset Process: The Case of Sea Level Rise in Bangladesh

2,671 million (at 2009 prices) to protect roads and railways, river embankments surrounding agricultural lands, and drainage systems and erosion control measures for major towns. With gradual climate change, however, required investments would be phased. Beyond these capital-intensive investments, improved policies, planning and institutions are essential to ensure that such investments are used correctly and yield the expected benefits. Particular attention is needed to the robustness of benefits from large-scale fixed capital investments. Investments in increased understanding of risk-mitigation options and in economic mobility will have especially high returns.

Hydro-climatic hazards for crops and cropping system in the chars of the Jamuna River and potential adaptation options

Sea level rise due to sedimentation, although significant near river deltas, is negligible on a global scale. Sea level rise (SLR) on a short time scale (several years) is associated with El Nino/Southern oscillations. Bangladesh is highly vulnerable to sea level rise, as it is a densely populated coastal country of smooth relief comprising broad and narrow ridges and depressions. A big chunk of the fresh- water zone that will be disappearing due to sea level rise near to the estuary will have a far reaching effect on the country’s ecology and will extinct some of its endangered species. The southwest region of Bangladesh comprises the world’s largest single track of mangrove forest—the Sundarbans, which is also vulnerable to the sea level rise. It is located at the southern extremity of the Ganges river delta bordering the Bay of Bengal. A possible 45 cm sea level rise by the year 2050 could inundate 75 % of the Sundarbans. Several studies are initiated to find out suitable adaptation measures that have the potential to help farmers adapt to climate changes and to identify suitable varieties of crops that would be able to adapt to climate change. One of them is a study titled “Adaptive Crop Agriculture Including Innovative Farming Practices in the Coastal Zone of Bangladesh,” which was conducted in Satkhira, a coastal district of Bangladesh.

Loss and Damage from the Local Perspective in the Context of a Slow Onset Process

Bangladesh is affected strongly by climate change. Increasing surface air temperature is most prominent in Bangladesh, where an increasing trend and temporal variation in the mean seasonal temperature is observed within the range of 0.4–0.65 °C during the past 40-year period. Although the winter season experiences the minimum rainfall, historical trend is showing a positive inclination in 27 out of 32 rainfall observatories of the meteorological department. The riverine flood (or monsoon flood) is affected by the following climate change related phenomenon, especially due to change in the frequency and intensity in extreme rainfall event may subsequently increase the intensity of flood. Riverbank erosion is one of the major natural disasters of Bangladesh, which is also related to the monsoon flooding. Floods, especially the high intensity floods, often devastate physical infrastructure such as road networks, educational centres, market places, administrative buildings etc. Changes in climate may affect irrigation requirements for all the three cropping seasons: Rabi, Kharif-I, and Kharif-II. At present, western parts of Bangladesh are periodically being affected by droughts in winter months. Since the temperature will rise, and there exists a strong possibility that the winter precipitation will decrease further, it is likely that the moisture content of topsoil would decrease substantially leading to severe moisture stress.