Narcisa G. Pricope

Biodiversity Areas under Threat: Overlap of Climate Change and Population Pressures on the World's Biodiversity Priorities.

Humans and the ecosystem services they depend on are threatened by climate change. Places with high or growing human population as well as increasing climate variability, have a reduced ability to provide ecosystem services just as the need for these services is most critical. A spiral of vulnerability and ecosystem degradation often ensues in such places. We apply different global conservation schemes as proxies to examine the spatial relation between wet season precipitation, population change over three decades, and natural resource conservation. We pose two research questions: 1) Where are biodiversity and ecosystem services vulnerable to the combined effects of climate change and population growth? 2) Where are human populations vulnerable to degraded ecosystem services? Results suggest that globally only about 20% of the area between 50 degrees latitude North and South has experienced significant change–largely wetting–in wet season precipitation. Approximately 40% of rangelands and 30% of rainfed agriculture lands have experienced significant precipitation changes, with important implications for food security. Over recent decades a number of critical conservation areas experienced high population growth concurrent with significant wetting or drying (e.g. the Horn of Africa, Himalaya, Western Ghats, and Sri Lanka), posing challenges not only for human adaptation but also to the protection and sustenance of biodiversity and ecosystem services. Identifying areas of climate and population risk and their overlap with conservation priorities can help to target activities and resources that promote biodiversity and ecosystem services while improving human well-being.

Thermal Imagery-Derived Surface Inundation Modeling to Assess Flood Risk in a Flood-Pulsed Savannah Watershed in Botswana and Namibia

The Chobe River Basin (CRB), a sub-basin of the Upper Zambezi Basin shared by Namibia and Botswana, is a complex hydrologic system that lies at the center of the world’s largest transfrontier conservation area. Despite its regional importance for livelihoods and biodiversity, its hydrology, controlled by the timing and relative contributions of water from two regional rivers, remains poorly understood. An increase in the magnitude of flooding in this region since 2009 has resulted in significant displacements of rural communities. We use an innovative approach that employs time-series of thermal imagery and station discharge data to model seasonal flooding patterns, identify the driving forces that control the magnitude of flooding and the high population density areas that are most at risk of high magnitude floods throughout the watershed. Spatio-temporal changes in surface inundation determined using NASA Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) thermal imagery (2000–2015) revealed that flooding extent in the CRB is extremely variable, ranging from 401 km2 to 5779 km2 over the last 15 years. A multiple regression model of lagged discharge of surface contributor basins and flooding extent in the CRB indicated that the best predictor of flooding in this region is the discharge of the Zambezi River 64 days prior to flooding. The seasonal floods have increased drastically in magnitude since 2008 causing large populations to be displaced. Over 46,000 people (53% of Zambezi Region population) are living in high magnitude flood risk areas, making the need for resettlement planning and mitigation strategies increasingly important.

Geospatial datasets in support of high-resolution spatial assessment of population vulnerability to climate change in Nepal

We present a geographic information system (GIS) dataset with a nominal spatial resolution of one-kilometer composed of grid polygons originally derived and utilized in a high-resolution climate vulnerability model for Nepal. The different data sets described and shared in this article are processed and tailored to the specific objectives of our research paper entitled “High-resolution Spatial Assessment of Population Vulnerability to Climate Change in Nepal” (Mainali and Pricope, In press) [1]. We share these data recognizing that there is a significant gap in regards to data availability, the spatial patterns of different biophysical and socioeconomic variables, and the overall population vulnerability to climatic variability and disasters in Nepal. Individual variables, as well as the entire set presented in this dataset, can be used to better understand the spatial pattern of different physical, biological, climatic, and vulnerability characteristics in Nepal. The datasets presented in this article are sourced from different national and global databases and have been statistically treated to meet the needs of the article. The data are in GIS-ready ESRI shapefile file format of one-kilometer grid polygon with various fields (columns) for each dataset.

Anthropogenic and Environmental Disturbance Factors in the Annapurna Conservation Area of Nepal

Human-environment interactions in the Nepali Himalaya are a topic of increased interest given the importance of the region from a biophysical, hydro-climatic, and socio-economic point of view. In this paper, we discuss a range of anthropogenic and environmental disturbance factors affecting one of the best-known conservation areas in Nepal: the Annapurna region. Similar to other mountainous environments, this region has been experiencing heightened human and natural pressures resulting in environmental degradation from a variety of multiple causal factors, such as deforestation, over-grazing, improper cultivation techniques on poor soils and slopes and haphazard policy and management decisions regarding conservation and tourism. Mountain ranges are very sensitive to environmental changes and even slight alterations and imbalances can result in exponentially detrimental effects not only for the livelihoods of local and regional communities, but also biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. We utilize a combination of field-collected data such as ground control points and remotely-sensed imagery and datasets and, acknowledging the variability of the constantly changing landscape, we provide a preliminary quantitative analysis of environmental and socio-economic impacts in the Annapurna Conservation Area to highlight the extent of anthropogenically-induced changes in the region over the last decades.

Climate-Related Child Undernutrition in the Lake Victoria Basin: An Integrated Spatial Analysis of Health Surveys, NDVI, and Precipitation Data

Despite growing research into the socio-economic aspects of vulnerability [1]-[4], relatively little work has linked population dynamics with climate change beyond the complex relationship between migration and climate change [5]. It is likely, however, that most people experience climate change in situ, so understanding the role of population dynamics remains critical. How a given number of people, in a given location and with varying population characteristics may exacerbate or mitigate the impacts of climate change or how, conversely, they may be vulnerable to climate change impacts are basic questions that remain largely unresolved [6]. This paper explores where and to what extent population dynamics intersect with high exposure to climate change. Specifically, in Eastern Africas Lake Victoria Basin (LVB), a climate change/health vulnerability hotspot we have identified in prior research [7], we model child undernutrition vulnerability indices based on climate variables, including proxy measures (NDVI) derived from satellite imagery, at a 5-km spatial resolution. Results suggest that vegetation changes associated with precipitation decline in rural areas of sub-Saharan Africa can help predict deteriorating child health.

Mapping the need for adaptation: assessing drought vulnerability using the livelihood vulnerability index approach in a mid-hill region of Nepal

ABSTRACT For effective development and adaptation interventions in resource-poor regions to take place, it is critical to identify, at the highest spatial scale possible, regions of higher priority based on current needs and vulnerabilities. The index-based assessment of vulnerability to climate change and variability is typically used to identify administrative-level regions of high vulnerability using various socioeconomic and biophysical datasets. One method that combines both approaches at the community level consists of collecting highly resolved socio-economic data and using the livelihood vulnerability index (LVI) to assess population vulnerability to increased climate variability and shocks. We use this mixed-methods approach in mapping climate vulnerability of ten drought-prone villages in the central-east mid-hill region of Nepal. We integrate data from over 900 household surveys and national-level databases and identify spatial patterns in the different components of climate vulnerability. We assess to what extent climatic extremes or peoples socioeconomic capacity contribute to vulnerability and may shape development needs at the sub-district scale. We find that the majority of our study area falls in the high vulnerability category with significant spatial variation. In some villages, there are different vulnerability classes in different wards, indicating that even within the lowest administrative units, there is a significant spatial variation in the level of vulnerability. Livelihood strategies, water availability, and topographic components played the most important role in determining overall vulnerability and we measure strong interconnections among different components. The interconnectedness nature of different vulnerability components is creating a self-reinforcing downward spiral of vulnerability that traps local communities in a state of heightened vulnerability. We conclude that adaptation strategies in highly vulnerable regions should include careful consideration of different livelihoods and environmental components, their fine-scale spatial variations, and interconnections.