Natalia Shakhova

Extensive Methane Venting to the Atmosphere from Sediments of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf

Bubble, Bubble, Warming and Trouble Vast quantities of methane are stored in ocean sediments, mostly in the form of clathrates, but methane is also trapped in submerged terrestrial permafrost that was flooded during the last deglaciation. There is thus concern that climate warming could warm ocean waters enough to release methane cryogenically trapped beneath the seabed, causing even more warming. Shakova et al. (p. 1246; see the Perspective by Heimann) report that more than 80% of the bottom water, and more than 50% of the surface water, over the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, is indeed supersaturated with methane that is being released from the sub-sea permafrost, and that the flux to the atmosphere now is as great as previous estimates of that from the entire world ocean. Methane emissions from this region of sub-sea permafrost are comparable to previous estimates for the world ocean. Remobilization to the atmosphere of only a small fraction of the methane held in East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS) sediments could trigger abrupt climate warming, yet it is believed that sub-sea permafrost acts as a lid to keep this shallow methane reservoir in place. Here, we show that more than 5000 at-sea observations of dissolved methane demonstrates that greater than 80% of ESAS bottom waters and greater than 50% of surface waters are supersaturated with methane regarding to the atmosphere. The current atmospheric venting flux, which is composed of a diffusive component and a gradual ebullition component, is on par with previous estimates of methane venting from the entire World Ocean. Leakage of methane through shallow ESAS waters needs to be considered in interactions between the biogeosphere and a warming Arctic climate.

Activation of old carbon by erosion of coastal and subsea permafrost in Arctic Siberia.

The future trajectory of greenhouse gas concentrations depends on interactions between climate and the biogeosphere. Thawing of Arctic permafrost could release significant amounts of carbon into the atmosphere in this century. Ancient Ice Complex deposits outcropping along the ∼7,000-kilometre-long coastline of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS), and associated shallow subsea permafrost, are two large pools of permafrost carbon, yet their vulnerabilities towards thawing and decomposition are largely unknown. Recent Arctic warming is stronger than has been predicted by several degrees, and is particularly pronounced over the coastal ESAS region. There is thus a pressing need to improve our understanding of the links between permafrost carbon and climate in this relatively inaccessible region. Here we show that extensive release of carbon from these Ice Complex deposits dominates (57 ± 2 per cent) the sedimentary carbon budget of the ESAS, the world’s largest continental shelf, overwhelming the marine and topsoil terrestrial components. Inverse modelling of the dual-carbon isotope composition of organic carbon accumulating in ESAS surface sediments, using Monte Carlo simulations to account for uncertainties, suggests that 44 ± 10 teragrams of old carbon is activated annually from Ice Complex permafrost, an order of magnitude more than has been suggested by previous studies. We estimate that about two-thirds (66 ± 16 per cent) of this old carbon escapes to the atmosphere as carbon dioxide, with the remainder being re-buried in shelf sediments. Thermal collapse and erosion of these carbon-rich Pleistocene coastline and seafloor deposits may accelerate with Arctic amplification of climate warming.

The East Siberian Arctic Shelf: towards further assessment of permafrost-related methane fluxes and role of sea ice.

Sustained release of methane (CH4) to the atmosphere from thawing Arctic permafrost may be a positive and significant feedback to climate warming. Atmospheric venting of CH4 from the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS) was recently reported to be on par with flux from the Arctic tundra; however, the future scale of these releases remains unclear. Here, based on results of our latest observations, we show that CH4 emissions from this shelf are likely to be determined by the state of subsea permafrost degradation. We observed CH4 emissions from two previously understudied areas of the ESAS: the outer shelf, where subsea permafrost is predicted to be discontinuous or mostly degraded due to long submergence by seawater, and the near shore area, where deep/open taliks presumably form due to combined heating effects of seawater, river run-off, geothermal flux and pre-existing thermokarst. CH4 emissions from these areas emerge from largely thawed sediments via strong flare-like ebullition, producing fluxes that are orders of magnitude greater than fluxes observed in background areas underlain by largely frozen sediments. We suggest that progression of subsea permafrost thawing and decrease in ice extent could result in a significant increase in CH4 emissions from the ESAS.

Preferential burial of permafrost‐derived organic carbon in Siberian‐Arctic shelf waters

The rapidly changing East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS) receives large amounts of terrestrial organic carbon (OC) from coastal erosion and Russian-Arctic rivers. Climate warming increases thawing of coastal Ice Complex Deposits (ICD) and can change both the amount of released OC, as well as its propensity to be converted to greenhouse gases (fueling further global warming) or to be buried in coastal sediments. This study aimed to unravel the susceptibility to degradation, and transport and dispersal patterns of OC delivered to the ESAS. Bulk and molecular radiocarbon analyses on surface particulate matter (PM), sinking PM and underlying surface sediments illustrate the active release of old OC from coastal permafrost. Molecular tracers for recalcitrant soil OC showed ages of 3.4–13 14C-ky in surface PM and 5.5–18 14C-ky in surface sediments. The age difference of these markers between surface PM and surface sediments is larger (i) in regions with low OC accumulation rates, suggesting a weaker exchange between water column and sediments, and (ii) with increasing distance from the Lena River, suggesting preferential settling of fluvially derived old OC nearshore. A dual-carbon end-member mixing model showed that (i) contemporary terrestrial OC is dispersed mainly by horizontal transport while being subject to active degradation, (ii) marine OC is most affected by vertical transport and also actively degraded in the water column, and (iii) OC from ICD settles rapidly and dominates surface sediments. Preferential burial of ICD-OC released into ESAS coastal waters might therefore lower the suggested carbon cycle climate feedback from thawing ICD permafrost.

The degradation of submarine permafrost and the destruction of hydrates on the shelf of east arctic seas as a potential cause of the “Methane Catastrophe”: some results of integrated studies in 2011

On the basis of the analysis of published data and in the course of the authors’ long-term geochemical and acoustic surveys performed in 1995–2011 on the East Siberian shelf (ESS) and aimed to research the role of the Arctic shelf in the processes of massive methane outbursts into the Earth’s atmosphere, some crucially new results were obtained. A number of hypotheses were proposed concerning the qualitative and quantitative characterization of the scale of this phenomenon. The ESS is a powerful supplier of methane to the atmosphere owing to the continued degradation of the submarine permafrost, which causes the destruction of gas hydrates. The emission of methane in several areas of the ESS is massive to the extent that growth in the methane concentrations in the atmosphere to values capable of causing a considerable and even catastrophic warning on the Earth is possible. The seismic data were compared to those of the drilling from ice performed first by the authors in 2011 in the southeastern part of the Laptev Sea to a depth of 65 m from the ice surface. This made it possible to reveal some new factors explaining the observed massive methane bursts out of the bottom sediments.

Siberian-Arctic black carbon sources constrained by model and observation

Significance A successful mitigation strategy for climate warming agents such as black carbon (BC) requires reliable source information from bottom-up emission inventory data, which can only be verified by observation. We measured BC in one of the fastest-warming and, at the same time, substantially understudied regions on our planet, the northeastern Siberian Arctic. Our observations, compared with an atmospheric transport model, imply that quantification and spatial allocation of emissions at high latitudes, specifically in the Russian Arctic, need improvement by reallocating emissions and significantly shifting source contributions for the transport, domestic, power plant, and gas flaring sectors. This strong shift in reported emissions has potentially considerable implications for climate modeling and BC mitigation efforts. Black carbon (BC) in haze and deposited on snow and ice can have strong effects on the radiative balance of the Arctic. There is a geographic bias in Arctic BC studies toward the Atlantic sector, with lack of observational constraints for the extensive Russian Siberian Arctic, spanning nearly half of the circum-Arctic. Here, 2 y of observations at Tiksi (East Siberian Arctic) establish a strong seasonality in both BC concentrations (8 ng⋅m−3 to 302 ng⋅m−3) and dual-isotope–constrained sources (19 to 73% contribution from biomass burning). Comparisons between observations and a dispersion model, coupled to an anthropogenic emissions inventory and a fire emissions inventory, give mixed results. In the European Arctic, this model has proven to simulate BC concentrations and source contributions well. However, the model is less successful in reproducing BC concentrations and sources for the Russian Arctic. Using a Bayesian approach, we show that, in contrast to earlier studies, contributions from gas flaring (6%), power plants (9%), and open fires (12%) are relatively small, with the major sources instead being domestic (35%) and transport (38%). The observation-based evaluation of reported emissions identifies errors in spatial allocation of BC sources in the inventory and highlights the importance of improving emission distribution and source attribution, to develop reliable mitigation strategies for efficient reduction of BC impact on the Russian Arctic, one of the fastest-warming regions on Earth.

Current rates and mechanisms of subsea permafrost degradation in the East Siberian Arctic Shelf

The rates of subsea permafrost degradation and occurrence of gas-migration pathways are key factors controlling the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS) methane (CH4) emissions, yet these factors still require assessment. It is thought that after inundation, permafrost-degradation rates would decrease over time and submerged thaw-lake taliks would freeze; therefore, no CH4 release would occur for millennia. Here we present results of the first comprehensive scientific re-drilling to show that subsea permafrost in the near-shore zone of the ESAS has a downward movement of the ice-bonded permafrost table of ∼14 cm year−1 over the past 31–32 years. Our data reveal polygonal thermokarst patterns on the seafloor and gas-migration associated with submerged taliks, ice scouring and pockmarks. Knowing the rate and mechanisms of subsea permafrost degradation is a prerequisite to meaningful predictions of near-future CH4 release in the Arctic.

Sea‐surface temperature and salinity product comparison against external in situ data in the Arctic Ocean

Sea-surface temperature and salinity (SST/S) in the Arctic Ocean (AO) are largely governed by sea-ice and continental runoff rather than evaporation and precipitation as in lower latitude oceans, and global satellite analyses and models which incorporate remotely observed SST/S may be inaccurate in the AO due to lack of direct measurements for calibrating satellite data. For this reason, we are motivated to validate several satellite sea-surface temperature (SST) data products and SST/S models by comparing gridded data in the AO with oceanographic records from 2006 to 2013. Statistical analysis of product-minus-observation differences reveals that the satellite SST products considered have a temperature bias magnitude of less than 0.5 °C compared to ship-based CTD measurements, and most of these biases are negative in sign. SST/S models also show an overall negative temperature bias, but no common sign or magnitude of salinity bias against CTD data. Ice tethered profiler (ITP) near-surface data span the seasons of several years, and these measurements reflect a sea-ice dominated region where the ocean surface cannot be remotely observed. Against this data, many of the considered models and products show large errors with detectable seasonal differences in SST bias. Possible sources of these errors are discussed, and two adjustments of product SST on the basis of sea-ice concentration are suggested for reducing bias to within less than 0.01 °C of ITP near-surface temperatures.

Anthropogenic factor and methane emission on the East-Siberian shelf

Results of data analysis, based on measurement of atmospheric concentrations of methane in the shallow part of the East Siberian shelf (ESS) are presented in this work. It was shown that methane emission in the atmosphere is determined not only by natural factors, but is also sensitive to anthropogenic influences, like the engine mode of a ship. It was determined that the hydraulic impact, which occurs when starting a ship’s engine after drifting through a shallow, can induce a great methane outbreak in the atmosphere. The power of these “short-lived” sources can exceed the power of any one deep-water mud volcano. In the shallow parts of the ESS, the anthropogenic factor can be one of the important factors effecting methane outbreaks in the atmosphere.

Methane in the surface waters of Northern Eurasian marginal seas

More than 12 000 measurements of the dissolved methane (CH4) concentrations in the surface waters of Northern Eurasian marginal seas (Barents, Kara, Laptev, Chukchi, and Bering Seas, Sea of Okhotsk, and Sea of Japan) during two marine expeditions (September–October 2011 and 2012) show that all seas are CH4 source to the atmosphere, but the Laptev and East Siberian seas demonstrate the strongest signal.