Natalie J. Jones

Addressing problems with traditional crime linking methods using receiver operating characteristic analysis

Purpose. Through an examination of serial rape data, the current article presents arguments supporting the use of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis over traditional methods in addressing challenges that arise when attempting to link serial crimes. Primarily, these arguments centre on the fact that traditional linking methods do not take into account how linking accuracy will vary as a function of the threshold used for determining when two crimes are similar enough to be considered linked. Methods. Considered for analysis were 27 crime scene behaviours exhibited in 126 rapes, which were committed by 42 perpetrators. Similarity scores were derived for every possible crime pair in the sample. These measures of similarity were then subjected to ROC analysis in order to (1) determine threshold-independent measures of linking accuracy and (2) set appropriate decision thresholds for linking purposes. Results. By providing a measure of linking accuracy that is not biased by threshold placement, the analysis confirmed that it is possible to link crimes at a level that significantly exceeds chance (AUC = .75). The use of ROC analysis also allowed for the identification of decision thresholds that resulted in the desired balance between various linking outcomes (e.g. hits and false alarms). Conclusions. ROC analysis is exclusive in its ability to circumvent the limitations of threshold-specific results yielded from traditional approaches to linkage analysis. Moreover, results of the current analysis provide a basis for challenging common assumptions underlying the linking task.

Predicting Criminal Recidivism in Adult Male Offenders Researcher Versus Parole Officer Assessment of Dynamic Risk

In an attempt to bridge the gap between research and practice in the domain of criminal risk assessment, this study compared the predictive accuracy of dynamic risk assessments attained via an exhaustive research protocol to that achieved by the proxy ratings generated by parole officers. After an initial prerelease assessment, 127 male offenders under community supervision in Ontario, Canada, were assessed by parole officers and researchers at three different intervals (i.e., 1, 3, and 6 months postrelease). Cox regression survival analyses with time-dependent covariates and receiver operating characteristic analyses revealed moderate to high levels of predictive accuracy in both research-based and parole officer ratings (area under the curve [AUC] = .79 and .76, respectively). The strongest prediction model combined the research-based time-dependent dynamic factors with static items (AUC = .86), thus offering provisional support for the inclusion of prospectively rated dynamic factors in risk assessment protocols.

A Quantitative Exploration of Gendered Pathways to Crime in a Sample of Male and Female Juvenile Offenders

Feminist (gendered) pathways theorists maintain that female criminality is largely survival-based, and tied to a constellation of factors including early trauma, ensuing mental health issues, and poverty. Based on items drawn from the Youth Assessment and Screening Instrument, multidimensional scaling was performed to elucidate the respective thematic structure of background and offending characteristics of 663 female and 1,175 male juvenile offenders under community supervision in New York State. Although the gendered pathways theme emerged exclusively for females, a theme closely resembling the traditional antisocial pathway depicted in mainstream correctional literature was also evident among females. Theoretical integration is therefore recommended.

Validities and Abilities in Criminal Profiling: A Critique of the Studies Conducted by Richard Kocsis and His Colleagues

In a recent issue of this journal, Kocsis reviewed the criminal profiling research that he and his colleagues have conducted during the past 4 years. Their research examines the correlates of profile accuracy with respect to the skills of the individual constructing the profile, and it has led Kocsis to draw conclusions that are important to the profiling field. In this article, the authors review the contributions of the Kocsis studies and critique their methodological and conceptual foundations. The authors raise a number of concerns and argue that data from the Kocsis studies fail to support many of the conclusions presented in his recent review. The authors present evidence in support of their assertions and provide recommendations that will allow future research in the area to generate data that are more meaningful and generalizable.

Incorporating Strengths Into Quantitative Assessments of Criminal Risk for Adult Offenders The Service Planning Instrument

The primary aim of this study is to determine the extent to which the consideration of strengths enhances the predictive validity of risk assessment protocols applied to correctional populations. Data from the Service Planning Instrument (SPIn) Pre-Screen were analyzed for 3,656 adult offenders bound by provincial supervision across Alberta, Canada. The predictive validity of the screening instrument was equivalent across gender and Aboriginal status (areas under the curve [AUCs] = .75-.77). Hierarchical logistic regression revealed significant main effects for risk and strength subtotals in predicting new offenses over 18 months for the overall sample, indicating that the inclusion of strengths adds uniquely to the prediction of recidivism. The overall model yielded a significant Risk Score × Strength Score interaction, illustrating that high strength scores are particularly effective in attenuating recidivism among higher risk cases. Rather than limit their consideration to case management contexts, results support the integration of strengths into quantitative assessments of criminal risk.

The Development and Validation of Statistical Prediction Rules for Discriminating Between Genuine and Simulated Suicide Notes

The suicide note is a valuable source of information for assisting police forces in equivocal death investigations. The present study endeavored to develop statistical prediction rules to discriminate between genuine and simulated suicide notes. Discriminant function analysis was performed on a sample of 33 genuine and 33 simulated notes to identify variables that serve as best predictors of note authenticity. Receiver operating characteristic analysis was then applied to validate these models and establish decision thresholds. The optimal model yielded an accuracy score of ⋅82, with average sentence length and expression of positive affect being particularly effective at discriminating between the notes. Theoretical implications are discussed as are the practical advantages of applying receiver operating characteristic analysis in the investigation of equivocal deaths.

DOES USE-OF-FORCE SIMULATION TRAINING IN CANADIAN POLICE AGENCIES INCORPORATE PRINCIPLES OF EFFECTIVE TRAINING?

Numerous police agencies in Canada incorporate use-of-force simulation training into their overall instructional regime. A prominent theory of learning, known as cognitive load theory, suggests that in order for this training to be effective, instructional methods must facilitate the acquisition and automation of task-relevant schemas without overwhelming the limited processing capacity of the learner. In this article, several instructional effects, proposed and supported by the cognitive load literature, are discussed. These training effects operate by minimizing unnecessary cognitive demands, by drawing on instructional methods that enhance schema acquisition, and/or by carefully managing the inherent complexity of the to-be-learned material. The argument is advanced that although use-of-force simulation training may be able to capitalize on many of these effects, at present there is little evidence to suggest that it currently does. The authors conclude by discussing the urgent need to assess how the knowledge gained from cognitive load theory might serve to enhance the effectiveness of use-of-force simulation training.

Validity of the Youth Assessment and Screening Instrument: a juvenile justice tool incorporating risks, needs, and strengths

The primary purpose of this study is to introduce the Youth Assessment and Screening Instrument (YASI; Orbis Partners, 2000), which is a comprehensive assessment protocol gauging a range of risks, needs, and strengths associated with criminal conduct in juvenile populations. Applied to a sample of 464 juvenile offenders bound by community supervision in Alberta, Canada, the Pre-Screen version of the instrument achieved a high level of accuracy in predicting both general and violent offenses over an 18-month follow-up period (Area Under the Curve [AUC] = .79). No significant differences in overall predictive validity were found across demographic groups, save for the relatively lower level of accuracy achieved in predicting general reoffending across the subsample of girls (AUC = .68). With regard to strengths, a buffering effect was identified whereby high-risk cases with higher levels of strength had superior outcomes compared to their lower strength counterparts. Results suggest that it is advisable to consider the quantitative inclusion of strength-based items in the assessment of juvenile risk.

Determining the Authenticity of Suicide Notes: Can Training Improve Human Judgment?

Two studies examined the degree to which training could improve participants’ ability to determine the authenticity of suicide notes. In Study 1, informing participants about variables that are known to discriminate between genuine and simulated suicide notes did not improve their decision accuracy beyond chance, nor did this training allow participants to perform as accurately as a statistical prediction rule. In Study 2, the provision of additional training instructions did enhance participants’ decision accuracy but not to a level achieved by the statistical prediction rule. However, training that included all instructions simultaneously resulted in a slight performance decrease attributable to the fact that certain instructions proved problematic when applied to the sample of suicide notes upon which decisions were being made. The potential implications of these findings for police decision making and training are discussed.

Taking Stock of the Intersection of Race, Gender, and Crime: Statistics, Theory, and Correctional Applications

Criminal conduct is largely the purview of boys and men. Regardless of time, culture, country, or measurement strategy, scholars have repeatedly concluded that males, irrespective of their race or ethnicity, are responsible for the vast majority of crime, particularly crime of a violent and serious nature (Belknap, The invisible woman: Gender, crime, and justice (3rd ed.). Thomson Wadsworth Publishing Company, 2007; Blanchette & Brown, The assessment and treatment of women offenders: An integrative perspective. Wiley, 2006; Muraskin, Women and Justice: It’s a crime. (5th ed.). Prentice Hall, 2012). Although girls and women commit considerably less crime than boys and men, official statistics suggest that arrest and incarceration rates for females have increased substantially over the last two decades while the corresponding male rates have either remained constant or declined (Glaze, Correctional Population in the United States, 2010, 2011; Snyder, Patterns and trends: Arrests in the United States, 1980-2009. U.S. Department of Justice, Office of Justice Programs, Bureau of Justice Statistics, 2011; Snyder & Sickmund, Juvenile Offenders and Victims: 2006 National Report. US Department of Justice, Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention, 2006). In 2010, women comprised 1.3 million of the 7.1 million adults in the USA under some form of correctional supervision (Glaze, 2011; Glaze & Bonczar, Probation and parole in the United States. U.S. Department of Justice, Office of Justice Programs, Bureau of Justice Statistics, 2011; Guerino, Harrison, & Sabol, Prisoners in 2010. U.S. Department of Justice, Office of Justice Programs, Bureau of Justice Statistics, 2011; Minton, Jail Inmates at Midyear 2011-Statistical Tables. U.S. Department of Justice, Office of Justice Programs, Bureau of Justice Statistics, 2012).