Natalie Staplin

Evidence for the prevention and treatment of stroke in dialysis patients.

The risks of both ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke are particularly high in dialysis patients of any age and outcomes are poor. It is therefore important to identify strategies that safely minimize stroke risk in this population. Observational studies have been unable to clarify the relative importance of traditional stroke risk factors such as blood pressure and cholesterol in those on dialysis, and are affected by biases that usually make them an inappropriate source of data on which to base therapeutic decisions. Well‐conducted randomized trials are not susceptible to such biases and can reliably investigate the causal nature of the association between a potential risk factor and the outcome of interest. However, dialysis patients have been under‐represented in the cardiovascular trials which have proven net benefit of commonly used preventative treatments (e.g., antihypertensive treatments, low‐dose aspirin, carotid revascularization, and thromboprophylaxis for atrial fibrillation), and there remains uncertainty about safety and efficacy of many of these treatments in this high‐risk population. Moreover, the efficacy of renal‐specific therapies that might reduce cardiovascular risk, such as modulators of mineral and bone disorder, online hemodiafiltration, and daily (nocturnal) hemodialysis, have not been tested in adequately powered trials. Recent trials have also demonstrated how widespread current practices could be causing stroke. Therefore, it is important that reliable information on the prevention and treatment of stroke (and other cardiovascular disease) in dialysis patients is generated by performing large‐scale randomized trials of many current and future treatments.

Smoking and Adverse Outcomes in Patients With CKD: The Study of Heart and Renal Protection (SHARP)

Background The absolute and relative importance of smoking to vascular and nonvascular outcomes in people with chronic kidney disease (CKD), as well its relevance to kidney disease progression, is uncertain. Study Design Observational study. Setting & Participants 9,270 participants with CKD enrolled in SHARP. Predictor Baseline smoking status (current, former, and never). Outcomes Vascular events, site-specific cancer, ESRD, rate of change in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), and cause-specific mortality. Results At baseline, 1,243 (13%) participants were current smokers (median consumption, 10 cigarettes/day); 3,272 (35%), former smokers; and 4,755 (51%), never smokers. Median follow-up was 4.9 years. Vascular event rates were 36% higher for current than never smokers (2,317 events; relative risk [RR], 1.36; 95% CI, 1.19-1.55), reflecting increases in both atherosclerotic (RR, 1.49; 95% CI, 1.26-1.76) and nonatherosclerotic (RR, 1.25; 95% CI, 1.05-1.50) events. Cancer was 37% higher among current smokers (632 events; RR, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.07-1.76), with the biggest RRs for lung (RR, 9.31; 95% CI, 4.37-19.83) and upper aerodigestive tract (RR, 4.87; 95% CI, 2.10-11.32) cancers. For 6,245 patients not receiving dialysis at baseline, ESRD incidence did not differ significantly between current and never smokers (2,141 events; RR, 1.02; 95% CI, 0.89-1.17), nor did estimated rate of change in eGFR (current smokers, −1.77 ± 0.14 [SE]; never smokers, −1.70 ± 0.07 mL/min/1.73 m2 per year). All-cause mortality was 48% higher among current smokers (2,257 events; RR, 1.48; 95% CI, 1.30-1.70), with significant increases in vascular (RR, 1.35; 95% CI, 1.07-1.69) and nonvascular (RR, 1.60; 95% CI, 1.34-1.91) causes of death, especially cancer (RR, 2.32; 95% CI, 1.58-3.40) and respiratory (RR, 2.25; 95% CI, 1.51-3.35) mortality. Limitations Smoking status not assessed during follow-up. Conclusions In this study of patients with CKD, smoking significantly increased the risks for vascular and nonvascular morbidity and mortality, but was not associated with kidney disease progression. The associations with vascular and neoplastic disease are in keeping with those observed in the general population and are likely modifiable by cessation.

Evidence for Reverse Causality in the Association Between Blood Pressure and Cardiovascular Risk in Patients With Chronic Kidney Disease

Among those with moderate-to-advanced chronic kidney disease, the relationship between blood pressure (BP) and cardiovascular disease seems U shaped but is loglinear in apparently healthy adults. The SHARP (Study of Heart and Renal Protection) randomized 9270 patients with chronic kidney disease to ezetimibe/simvastatin versus matching placebo and measured BP at each follow-up visit. Cox regression was used to assess the association between BP and risk of cardiovascular disease among (1) those with a self-reported history of cardiovascular disease and (2) those with no such history and, based on plasma troponin-I concentration, a low probability of subclinical cardiac disease. A total of 8666 participants had a valid baseline BP and troponin-I measurement, and 2188 had at least 1 cardiovascular event during follow-up. After adjustment for relevant confounders, the association between systolic BP and cardiovascular events was U shaped, but among participants without evidence of previous cardiovascular disease, there was a positive loglinear association throughout the range of values studied. Among those with the lowest probability of subclinical cardiac disease, each 10 mm Hg higher systolic BP corresponded to a 27% increased risk of cardiovascular disease (hazard ratio, 1.27; 95% confidence interval, 1.11–1.44). In contrast, the relationship between diastolic BP and cardiovascular risk remained U shaped irrespective of cardiovascular disease history or risk of subclinical disease. In conclusion, the lack of a clear association between systolic BP and cardiovascular risk in this population seems attributable to confounding, suggesting that more intensive systolic BP reduction may be beneficial in such patients. Clinical Trial Registration— URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00125593.

Impact of Educational Attainment on Health Outcomes in Moderate to Severe CKD

Background The inverse association between educational attainment and mortality is well established, but its relevance to vascular events and renal progression in a population with chronic kidney disease (CKD) is less clear. This study aims to determine the association between highest educational attainment and risk of vascular events, cause-specific mortality, and CKD progression. Study Design Prospective epidemiologic analysis among participants in the Study of Heart and Renal Protection (SHARP), a randomized controlled trial. Setting & Participants 9,270 adults with moderate to severe CKD (6,245 not receiving dialysis at baseline) and no history of myocardial infarction or coronary revascularization recruited in Europe, North America, Asia, Australia, and New Zealand. Predictor Highest educational attainment measured at study entry using 6 levels that ranged from “no formal education” to “tertiary education.” Outcomes Any vascular event (any fatal or nonfatal cardiac, cerebrovascular, or peripheral vascular event), cause-specific mortality, and CKD progression during 4.9 years’ median follow-up. Results There was a significant trend (P < 0.001) toward increased vascular risk with decreasing levels of education. Participants with no formal education were at a 46% higher risk of vascular events (relative risk [RR], 1.46; 95% CI, 1.14-1.86) compared with participants with tertiary education. The trend for mortality across education levels was also significant (P < 0.001): all-cause mortality was twice as high among those with no formal education compared with tertiary-educated individuals (RR, 2.05; 95% CI, 1.62-2.58), and significant increases were seen for both vascular (RR, 1.84; 95% CI, 1.21-2.81) and nonvascular (RR, 2.15; 95% CI, 1.60-2.89) deaths. Lifestyle factors and prior disease explain most of the excess mortality risk. Among 6,245 participants not receiving dialysis at baseline, education level was not significantly associated with progression to end-stage renal disease or doubling of creatinine level (P for trend = 0.4). Limitations No data for employment or health insurance coverage. Conclusions Lower educational attainment is associated with increased risk of adverse health outcomes in individuals with CKD.

The Effect of Lowering LDL Cholesterol on Vascular Access Patency: Post Hoc Analysis of the Study of Heart and Renal Protection

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES Reducing LDL cholesterol (LDL-C) with statin-based therapy reduces the risk of major atherosclerotic events among patients with CKD, including dialysis patients, but the effect of lowering LDL-C on vascular access patency is unclear. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS The Study of Heart and Renal Protection (SHARP) randomized patients with CKD to 20 mg simvastatin plus 10 mg ezetimibe daily versus matching placebo. This study aimed to explore the effects of treatment on vascular access occlusive events, defined as any access revision procedure, access thrombosis, removal of an old dialysis access, or formation of new permanent dialysis access. RESULTS Among 2353 SHARP participants who had functioning vascular access at randomization, allocation to simvastatin plus ezetimibe resulted in a 13% proportional reduction in vascular access occlusive events (355 [29.7%] for simvastatin/ezetimibe versus 388 [33.5%] for placebo; risk ratio [RR], 0.87; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 0.75 to 1.00; P=0.05). There was no evidence that the effects of treatment differed for any of the separate components of this outcome. To test the hypothesis raised by SHARP, comparable analyses were performed using the AURORA (A Study to Evaluate the Use of Rosuvastatin in Subjects on Regular Hemodialysis: An Assessment of Survival and Cardiovascular Events) trial cohort. AURORA did not provide independent confirmation (vascular access occlusive events: 352 [28.9%] for rosuvastatin versus 337 [27.6%] for placebo; RR, 1.06, 95% CI, 0.91 to 1.23; P=0.44). After combining the two trials, the overall effect of reducing LDL-C with a statin-based regimen on vascular access occlusive events was not statistically significant (707 [29.3%] with any LDL-C-lowering therapy versus 725 [30.5%] with placebo; RR, 0.95, 95% CI, 0.85 to 1.05; P=0.29). CONCLUSIONS Exploratory analyses from SHARP suggest that lowering LDL-C with statin-based therapy may improve vascular access patency, but there was no evidence of benefit in AURORA. Taken together, the available evidence suggests that any benefits of lowering LDL-C on vascular access patency are likely to be modest.

Dependent censoring in piecewise exponential survival models

There are often reasons to suppose that there is dependence between the time to event and time to censoring, or dependent censoring, for survival data, particularly when considering medical data. This is because the decision to treat or not is often made according to prognosis, usually with the most ill patients being prioritised. Due to identifiability issues, sensitivity analyses are often used to assess whether independent censoring can lead to misleading results. In this paper, a sensitivity analysis method for piecewise exponential survival models is presented. This method assesses the sensitivity of the results of standard survival models to small amounts of dependence between the time to failure and time to censoring variables. It uses the same assumption about the dependence between the time to failure and time to censoring as previous sensitivity analyses for both standard parametric survival models and the Cox model. However, the method presented in this paper allows the use of more flexible models for the marginal distributions whilst remaining computationally simple. A simulation study is used to assess the accuracy of the sensitivity analysis method and identify the situations in which it is suitable to use this method. The study found that the sensitivity analysis performs well in many situations, but not when the data have a high proportion of censoring.

Randomized multicentre pilot study of sacubitril/valsartan versus irbesartan in patients with chronic kidney disease: United Kingdom Heart and Renal Protection (HARP)- III—rationale, trial design and baseline data

Abstract Background Patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) are at risk of progression to end-stage renal disease and cardiovascular disease. Data from other populations and animal experiments suggest that neprilysin inhibition (which augments the natriuretic peptide system) may reduce these risks, but clinical trials among patients with CKD are required to test this hypothesis. Methods UK Heart and Renal Protection III (HARP-III) is a multicentre, double-blind, randomized controlled trial comparing sacubitril/valsartan 97/103 mg two times daily (an angiotensin receptor–neprilysin inhibitor) with irbesartan 300 mg one time daily among 414 patients with CKD. Patients ≥18 years of age with an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of ≥45 but <60 mL/min/1.73 m2 and urine albumin:creatinine ratio (uACR) >20 mg/mmol or eGFR ≥20 but <45 mL/min/1.73 m2 (regardless of uACR) were invited to be screened. Following a 4- to 7-week pre-randomization single-blind placebo run-in phase (during which any current renin–angiotensin system inhibitors were stopped), willing and eligible participants were randomly assigned either sacubitril/valsartan or irbesartan and followed-up for 12 months. The primary aim was to compare the effects of sacubitril/valsartan and irbesartan on measured GFR after 12 months of therapy. Important secondary outcomes include effects on albuminuria, change in eGFR over time and the safety and tolerability of sacubitril/valsartan in CKD. Results Between November 2014 and January 2016, 620 patients attended a screening visit and 566 (91%) entered the pre-randomization run-in phase. Of these, 414 (73%) participants were randomized (mean age 63 years; 72% male). The mean eGFR was 34.0 mL/min/1.73 m2 and the median uACR was 58.5 mg/mmol. Conclusions UK HARP-III will provide important information on the short-term effects of sacubitril/valsartan on renal function, tolerability and safety among patients with CKD.

Lowering LDL cholesterol reduces cardiovascular risk independently of presence of inflammation

Markers of inflammation, including plasma C-reactive protein (CRP), are associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease, and it has been suggested that this association is causal. However, the relationship between inflammation and cardiovascular disease has not been extensively studied in patients with chronic kidney disease. To evaluate this, we used data from the Study of Heart and Renal Protection (SHARP) to assess associations between circulating CRP and LDL cholesterol levels and the risk of vascular and non-vascular outcomes. Major vascular events were defined as nonfatal myocardial infarction, cardiac death, stroke or arterial revascularization, with an expanded outcome of vascular events of any type. Higher baseline CRP was associated with an increased risk of major vascular events (hazard ratio per 3x increase 1.28; 95% confidence interval 1.19-1.38). Higher baseline LDL cholesterol was also associated with an increased risk of major vascular events (hazard ratio per 0.6 mmol/L higher LDL cholesterol; 1.14, 1.06-1.22). Higher baseline CRP was associated with an increased risk of a range of non-vascular events (1.16, 1.12-1.21), but there was a weak inverse association between baseline LDL cholesterol and non-vascular events (0.96, 0.92-0.99). The efficacy of lowering LDL cholesterol with simvastatin/ezetimibe on major vascular events, in the randomized comparison, was similar irrespective of CRP concentration at baseline. Thus, decisions to offer statin-based therapy to patients with chronic kidney disease should continue to be guided by their absolute risk of atherosclerotic events. Estimation of such risk may include plasma biomarkers of inflammation, but there is no evidence that the relative beneficial effects of reducing LDL cholesterol depends on plasma CRP concentration.

Use of Causal Diagrams to Inform the Design and Interpretation of Observational Studies: An Example from the Study of Heart and Renal Protection (SHARP)

Observational studies often seek to estimate the causal relevance of an exposure to an outcome of interest. However, many possible biases can arise when estimating such relationships, in particular bias because of confounding. To control for confounding properly, careful consideration of the nature of the assumed relationships between the exposure, the outcome, and other characteristics is required. Causal diagrams provide a simple graphic means of displaying such relationships, describing the assumptions made, and allowing for the identification of a set of characteristics that should be taken into account (i.e., adjusted for) in any analysis. Furthermore, causal diagrams can be used to identify other possible sources of bias (such as selection bias), which if understood from the outset, can inform the planning of appropriate analyses. In this article, we review the basic theory of causal diagrams and describe some of the methods available to identify which characteristics need to be taken into account when estimating the total effect of an exposure on an outcome. In doing so, we review the concept of collider bias and show how it is inappropriate to adjust for characteristics that may be influenced, directly or indirectly, by both the exposure and the outcome of interest. A motivating example is taken from the Study of Heart and Renal Protection, in which the relevance of smoking to progression to ESRD is considered.

Declining comorbidity-adjusted mortality rates in English patients receiving maintenance renal replacement therapy.

We aimed to compare long-term mortality trends in end-stage renal disease versus general population controls after accounting for differences in age, sex and comorbidity. Cohorts of 45,000 patients starting maintenance renal replacement therapy (RRT) and 5.3 million hospital controls were identified from two large electronic hospital inpatient data sets: the Oxford Record Linkage Study (1965-1999) and all-England Hospital Episode Statistics (2000-2011). All-cause and cause-specific three-year mortality rates for both populations were calculated using Poisson regression and standardized to the age, sex, and comorbidity structure of an average 1970-2008 RRT population. The median age at initiation of RRT in 1970-1990 was 49 years, increasing to 61 years by 2006-2008. Over that period, there were increases in the prevalence of vascular disease (from 10.0 to 25.2%) and diabetes (from 6.7 to 33.9%). After accounting for age, sex and comorbidity differences, standardized three-year all-cause mortality rates in treated patients with end-stage renal disease between 1970 and 2011 fell by about one-half (relative decline 51%, 95% confidence interval 41-60%) steeper than the one-third decline (34%, 31-36%) observed in the general population. Declines in three-year mortality rates were evident among those who received a kidney transplant and those who remained on dialysis, and among those with and without diabetes. These data suggest that the full extent of mortality rate declines among RRT patients since 1970 is only apparent when changes in comorbidity over time are taken into account, and that mortality rates in RRT patients appear to have declined faster than in the general population.