Natasa Todorovic

Sovereign rescheduling probabilities in emerging markets: a comparison with credit rating agencies’ ratings

This study estimates default probabilities of 124 emerging countries from 1981 to 2002 as a function of a set of macroeconomic and political variables. The estimated probabilities are then compared with the default rates implied by sovereign credit ratings of three major international credit rating agencies (CRAs) – Moodys Investors Service, Standard & Poors and Fitch Ratings. Sovereign debt default probabilities are used by investors in pricing sovereign bonds and loans as well as in determining country risk exposure. The study finds that CRAs usually underestimate the risk of sovereign debt as the sovereign credit ratings from rating agencies are usually too optimistic.

DETERMINANTS OF DEBT RESCHEDULING IN EASTERN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES

This study utilizes Panel Logit Models applied to a set of macroeconomic, financial, and political variables to estimate the debt rescheduling probabilities of 15 Eastern European countries during the transition period from 1990-2005. These transition economies became a very attractive region for foreign investment. Specifically, the region became the largest recipient of net non-FDI flows among all emerging market regions in 2005. Therefore, it is relevant for policy makers and institutional and private foreign investors to investigate factors that influence debt rescheduling probabilities, as these may directly affect the size of and return on investments in these countries. Our findings suggest that policy efforts focused on reducing government expenditure, attracting foreign direct investment, increasing export revenues, and keeping a good repayment record result in low debt rescheduling probabilities and, in turn, decrease the cost of debt for these countries. This is a common finding for all countries in the sample, including those that have become EU members.

A Tale of Two States: Asymmetries in the UK Small, Value and Momentum Premiums

ABSTRACT This article performs comparative analysis of the asymmetries in size, value and momentum premium and their macroeconomic determinants over the UK economic cycles, using Markov switching approach. We associate Markov switching regime 1 with economic upturn and regime 2 with economic downturn. We find clear evidence of cyclical variations in the three premiums, most notable being that in the size premium, which changes from positive in expansions to negative in recessions. Macroeconomic indicators prompting such cyclicality the most are variables that proxy credit market conditions, namely the interest rates, term structure and credit spread. Overall, macro factors tend to have more significant impact on the three premiums during economic downturns. The results are robust to the choice of information variable used in modelling transition probabilities of the two-stage Markov switching model. We show that exploiting cyclicality in premiums proves particularly profitable for portfolios featuring small cap stocks in recessions at a feasible level of transaction costs.

A guide to survival of momentum in UK style portfolios

In this study we estimate the survival time of momentum in six UK style portfolio returns from October 1980 to June 2014. We utilise the Kaplan-Meier estimator, a non-parametric method that measures the probability that momentum will persist beyond the present month. This probability enables us to compute the average momentum survival time for each of the six style portfolios. Discrepancies between these empirical mean survival times and those implied by theoretical models [Random Walk and ARMA (1, 1)] show that there is scope for profiting from momentum trading. We illustrate this by forming long-only, short-only and long-short trading strategies that exploit positive and negative momentum and their average survival time. These trading strategies yield considerably higher Sharpe ratios than the comparative buy-and-hold strategies at a feasible level of transaction costs. This result is most pronounced for the long/short strategies. Our findings remain robust during the 2007/2008 financial crisis and the aftermath, suggesting that Kaplan-Meier estimator is a powerful tool for designing a profitable momentum strategy.

A Guide to Survival of Momentum in UK Style Portfolios

In this study we estimate the survival time of momentum in six UK style portfolios’ returns in the period October 1980–June 2014. We utilise the Kaplan-Meier estimator, a non-parametric method that measures the probability that momentum will persist beyond the present month. This probability enables us to compute the average momentum survival time for each of the six style portfolios. Discrepancies between these empirical mean survival times to those implied by theoretical models (Random Walk and ARMA (1, 1)) show that there is scope for profiting from momentum trading. We illustrate this by forming long-only, short-only and long-short trading strategies that exploit positive and negative momentum and their average survival time. Our trading strategies show that utilising momentum mean survival time yields considerably higher Sharpe ratios than the naïve buy-and-hold at a feasible level of transaction costs. This finding is most pronounced among the long/short strategies.

Macroeconomic Determinants of Cyclical Variations in Value, Size, and Momentum Premium in the UK

The paper examines the asymmetries in size, value and momentum premiums over the economic cycles in the UK and their macroeconomic determinants. Using Markov switching approach we find clear evidence of cyclical variations of the three premiums, most noticeably variations in size premium. We associate Markov switching regime 1 with economic upturn and regime 2 with economic downturn. The macroeconomic indicators prompting such cyclicality the most are growth in industrial production, term structure, credit spread and money supply. Using forecast returns from our model and a trading strategy that alternates between size/style/momentum portfolios and risk-free rate, we show that exploiting cyclicality in premiums proves particularly profitable for portfolios featuring small cap stocks in recessions.