Nathalie Aminian

Integration of markets vs. integration by agreements

This paper provides an analysis of the two channels of regional integration: integration via markets and integration via agreements. Given that East Asia and Latin America are two fertile regions where both forms of integrations have taken place, the authors examine the experiences of these two areas. There are four related results. First, East Asia had been integrating via markets long before formal agreements were in vogue in the region. Latin America, by contrast, has primarily used formal regional trade treaties as the main channel of integration. Second, despite the relative lack of formal regional trade treaties until recently, East Asia is more integrated among itself than Latin America. Third, from a purely economic and trade standpoint, the proper sequence of integrations seems to be first integrating via markets and subsequently via formal regional trade agreements. Fourth, regional trade agreements often serve multiple constituents. The reason why integrating via markets first can be helpful is because this can give stronger political bargaining power to the outward-looking economic-oriented forces within the country.

Trade in Services: East Asian and Latin American Experiences

This paper investigates the trend and characteristics of trade in services in two fertile regions where different forms of trade integration have taken place: East Asia and Latin America. To that end, the World Bank data are utilized to categorize services trade in order to put on view the national and regional positions on dynamic sectors, and to compare East Asia and Latin America in terms of revealed comparative advantages, the weight of service activities in the regional economic activity, the share of services employment. The paper deals also with the issue of internationalization of services through FDI. Overall, it shows the increasing importance of East Asia as a trading region while the share of North & Latin America is low and declining over time.

Prospects for Closer Economic Cooperation in Northeast Asia

In contrast to developments in other world regions, efforts to institutionalize regional economic cooperation in East Asia have been weak. Though Southeast Asian economies have taken action toward trade liberalization (ASEAN Free Trade Area), the major economies of the region such as China, Japan, and Korea have not been part of any formal trade groupings until recently. However, given the slow pace of progress within AFTA and the importance of the Northeast Asian countries in terms of weight in the Asian economy, a de facto Northeast Asian economic cooperation is a necessary condition for East Asian integration. This paper investigates the substance of recent economic cooperation in Northeast Asia. The trilateral economic cooperation is analyzed through examination of trade and direct investment links for 1990–2004, and estimation of selected determinants of direct investment, in particular the relationship between trade and FDI. Estimation results suggest that the main driving forces for direct investment outflows from the source country have been the falling-off of exchange rate risk, the level of the nominal bilateral exchange rates, growth rate of the recipient country, and the per capita GDP gap between source and host countries. Bilateral trade has been shown to be statistically insignificant.

The Euro and the Yuan: Some Political Economy Considerations

This paper sets out a political economy model of exchange rates, focusing on the importance of lobbying. Applying it to the Euro and the Chinese Yuan, we show that pressure groups in China can influence the determination of exchange rate. Furthermore, international negotiations could theoretically lead to an appreciation of the Chinese Yuan. We further extend the political economy model to include some of the special characteristics of Chinese trade such as the prevalence of processing trade and foreign-invested enterprises. Our paper makes a theoretical contribution in linking the Yuan, the Euro, trade disputes and politics. High unemployment and sluggish growth in Europe have led many European voters to put pressure on their governments and Brussels to take a tougher stance in trade disputes with China, leading to a form of “China bashing”.

Some International Policy Issues for China

In this paper we provide a simple model of an emerging market like China. We attempt to capture two characteristics of an emerging market: The simultaneous presence of market failures and government failures. In this model, we study the national welfare properties of four types of “governance” or “institutions”: A Benevolent Dictator, Extreme Economic Liberalism, Extreme Economic Nationalism and Factional Fighting with groups pressuring the government. We also discuss a case of the Realistic Dictator, who may switch from adopting liberal policies to nationalistic policies as the domestic market gets larger.