Nathan D. Chelgren

Using occupancy models to understand the distribution of an amphibian pathogen, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis

Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis is a fungal pathogen that is receiving attention around the world for its role in amphibian declines. Study of its occurrence patterns is hampered by false negatives: the failure to detect the pathogen when it is present. Occupancy models are a useful but currently underutilized tool for analyzing detection data when the probability of detecting a species is <1. We use occupancy models to evaluate hypotheses concerning the occurrence and prevalence of B. dendrobatidis and discuss how this application differs from a conventional occupancy approach. We found that the probability of detecting the pathogen, conditional on presence of the pathogen in the anuran population, was related to amphibian development stage, day of the year, elevation, and human activities. Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis was found throughout our study area but was only estimated to occur in 53.4% of 78 populations of native amphibians and 66.4% of 40 populations of nonnative Rana catesbeiana tested. We found little evidence to support any spatial hypotheses concerning the probability that the pathogen occurs in a population, but did find evidence of some taxonomic variation. We discuss the interpretation of occupancy model parameters, when, unlike a conventional occupancy application, the number of potential samples or observations is finite.

Widespread Occurrence of the Chytrid Fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis on Oregon Spotted Frogs (Rana pretiosa)

The pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) has been associated with amphibian declines in multiple continents, including western North America. We investigated Bd prevalence in Oregon spotted frog (Rana pretiosa), a species that has declined across its range in the Pacific Northwest. Polymerase chain reaction analysis of skin swabs indicated that Bd was prevalent within populations (420 of 617 juvenile and adults) and widespread among populations (36 of 36 sites) where we sampled R. pretiosa in Oregon and Washington. We rarely detected Bd in R. pretiosa larvae (2 of 72). Prevalence of Bd in postmetamorphic R. pretiosa was inversely related to frog size. We found support for an interactive effect of elevation and sampling date on Bd: prevalence of Bd generally increased with date, but this effect was more pronounced at lower elevations. We also found evidence that the body condition of juvenile R. pretiosa with Bd decreased after their first winter. Our data indicate that some Oregon spotted frog populations are currently persisting with relatively high Bd prevalence, but the risk posed by Bd is unknown.

Using multilevel spatial models to understand salamander site occupancy patterns after wildfire

Studies of the distribution of elusive forest wildlife have suffered from the confounding of true presence with the uncertainty of detection. Occupancy modeling, which incorporates probabilities of species detection conditional on presence, is an emerging approach for reducing observation bias. However, the current likelihood modeling framework is restrictive for handling unexplained sources of variation in the response that may occur when there are dependence structures such as smaller sampling units that are nested within larger sampling units. We used multilevel Bayesian occupancy modeling to handle dependence structures and to partition sources of variation in occupancy of sites by terrestrial salamanders (family Plethodontidae) within and surrounding an earlier wildfire in western Oregon, USA. Comparison of model fit favored a spatial N-mixture model that accounted for variation in salamander abundance over models that were based on binary detection/non-detection data. Though catch per unit effort was higher in burned areas than unburned, there was strong support that this pattern was due to a higher probability of capture for individuals in burned plots. Within the burn, the odds of capturing an individual given it was present were 2.06 times the odds outside the burn, reflecting reduced complexity of ground cover in the burn. Ther was weak support that true occupancy was lower within the burned area. While the odds of occupancy in the burn were 0.49 times the odds outside the burn among the five species, the magnitude of variation attributed to the burn was small in comparison to variation attributed to other landscape variables and to unexplained, spatially autocorrelated random variation. While ordinary occupancy models may separate the biological pattern of interest from variation in detection probability when all sources of variation are known, the addition of random effects structures for unexplained sources of variation in occupancy and detection probability may often more appropriately represent levels of uncertainty.

Demography and Movement in a Relocated Population of Oregon Spotted Frogs (Rana pretiosa): Influence of Season and Gender

Abstract We used five years of recapture data and Bayesian estimation to assess seasonal survival, movement, and growth of Oregon Spotted Frogs (Rana pretiosa) relocated into created ponds at Dilman Meadow in Oregon, USA. We evaluate hypotheses specific to the relocation and elucidate aspects of R. pretiosa life history that are poorly known. The odds of survival of relocated individuals during the first year following relocation were 0.36 times the survival odds of relocated and non-relocated frogs after one year since the relocation. Survival rate was higher for large frogs. After accounting for frog size, we found little variation in survival between ponds at Dilman Meadow. Survival was lowest for males during the breeding/post-breeding redistribution period, suggesting a high cost of breeding for males. The highest survival rates occurred during winter for both genders, and one small spring was used heavily during winter but was used rarely during the rest of the year. Individual growth was higher in ponds that were not used for breeding, and increased with increasing pond age. Our study supports other evidence that R. pretiosa use different habitats seasonally and are specific in their overwintering habitat requirements. Because frogs were concentrated during winter, predator-free overwintering springs are likely to be of particular value for R. pretiosa populations.

Connectivity and conditional models of access and abundance of species in stream networks

Barriers to passage of aquatic organisms at stream road crossings are a major cause of habitat fragmentation in stream networks. Accordingly, large investments have been made to restore passage at these crossings, but often without estimation of population-level benefits. Here, we describe a broad-scale approach to quantifying the effectiveness of passage restoration in terms interpretable at population levels, namely numbers of fish and length of stream gained through restoration, by sampling abundance in a study design that accounts for variable biogeographic species pools, variable stream and barrier configurations, and variable probabilities of capture and detectability for multiple species. We modified an existing zero-inflated negative-binomial model to estimate the probability of site access, abundance conditional on access, and capture probability of individual fish. Therein, we modeled probability of access as a function of gradient, stream road-crossing type, and downstream access by fish simultaneously with a predictive model for abundance at sites accessible to fish. Results indicated that replacement of barriers with new crossing designs intended to allow for greater movement was associated with dramatically higher probability of access for all fishes, including migratory Pacific salmon, trout, sculpin, and lamprey. Conversely, existing non-replaced crossings negatively impacted fish distributions. Assuming no downstream constraints on access, we estimated the potential length of stream restored by the program ranged between 7.33 (lamprey) and 15.28 km (small coastal cutthroat and rainbow trout). These contributions represented a fraction of the total length available upstream (187 km) of replaced crossings. When limited ranges of species were considered, the estimated contributions of culvert replacement were reduced (1.65-km range, for longnose dace to 12.31 km for small coastal cutthroat and rainbow trout). Numbers of fish contributed ranged from less than 500 (longnose dace) to greater than 100 000 (sculpin). Although our framework can address the question of effectiveness in a broad array of stream and crossing configurations, much stronger inferences would be possible if future restoration efforts were designed to address the limitations we encountered in this study, particularly the lack of available information on crossings and species presence prior to restoration, and nonrandom selection of crossings to be replaced.

Comparison of Electrofishing Techniques to Detect Larval Lampreys in Wadeable Streams in the Pacific Northwest

Abstract We evaluated the probability of detecting larval lampreys using different methods of backpack electrofishing in wadeable streams in the U.S. Pacific Northwest. Our primary objective was to compare capture of lampreys using electrofishing with standard settings for salmon and trout to settings specifically adapted for capture of lampreys. Field work consisted of removal sampling by means of backpack electrofishing in 19 sites in streams representing a broad range of conditions in the region. Captures of lampreys at these sites were analyzed with a modified removal-sampling model and Bayesian estimation to measure the relative odds of capture using the lamprey-specific settings compared with the standard salmonid settings. We found that the odds of capture were 2.66 (95% credible interval, 0.87–78.18) times greater for the lamprey-specific settings relative to standard salmonid settings. When estimates of capture probability were applied to estimating the probabilities of detection, we found high (...

Inference of Timber Harvest Effects on Survival of Stream Amphibians Is Complicated by Movement

The effects of contemporary logging practices on headwater stream amphibians have received considerable study but with conflicting or ambiguous results. We posit that focusing inference on demographic rates of aquatic life stages may help refine understanding, as aquatic and terrestrial impacts may differ considerably. We investigated in-stream survival and movement of two stream-breeding amphibian species within a before-after timber harvest experiment in the Oregon Coast Range. We used recaptures of marked individuals and a joint probability model of survival, movement, and capture probability, to measure variation in these rates attributed to stream reach, stream gradient, pre- and post-harvest periods, and the timber harvest intensity. Downstream biased movement occurred in both species but was greater for Coastal Tailed Frog (Ascaphus truei) larvae than aquatic Coastal Giant Salamanders (Dicamptodon tenebrosus). For D. tenebrosus, downstream biased movement occurred early in life, soon after an individuals first summer. Increasing timber harvest intensity reduced downstream movement bias and reduced survival of D. tenebrosus, but neither of these effects were detected for larvae of A. truei. Our findings provide insight into the demographic mechanisms underlying previous nuanced studies of amphibian responses to timber harvest based on biomass or counts of larvae.