Nathan D. Grawe

Reconsidering the Use of Nonlinearities in Intergenerational Earnings Mobility as a Test for Credit Constraints

Intergenerational earnings regression among Canadian men is nonlinear; middle-earning families experience slower regression. This pattern appears to confirm economic models of educational choice with credit constraints. This paper reexamines the economic model and finds no connection between credit markets and earnings regression nonlinearities. In particular, credit constraints need not produce concavity and concavity does not imply credit market failure. Despite the invalidity of the test, data availability will likely lead to continued research along this path. The paper proposes an amended test using quantile regressions. Applied to Canadian data, the simple liquidity constraint conclusion is rejected.

Integration with Writing Programs: A Strategy for Quantitative Reasoning Program Development

As an inherently interdisciplinary endeavor, quantitative reasoning (QR) risks falling through the cracks between the traditional “silos” of higher education. This article describes one strategy for developing a truly cross-campus QR initiative: leverage the existing structures of campus writing programs by placing QR in the context of argument. We first describe the integration of Carleton College’s Quantitative Inquiry, Reasoning, and Knowledge initiative with the Writing Program. Based on our experience, we argue that such an approach leads to four benefits: it reflects important aspects of QR often overlooked by other approaches; it defuses the commonly raised objection that QR is merely remedial math; it sidesteps challenges of institutional culture (idiosyncratic campus history, ownership, and inertia); and it improves writing instruction. We then explore the implications of our approach for QR graduation standards. Our experience suggests that once we engaged faculty from across the curriculum in our work, it would have been difficult to adopt a narrowly defined requirement of skills-based courses. The article concludes by providing resources for those who would like to implement this approach at the course and institutional level.

A Rubric for Assessing Quantitative Reasoning in Written Arguments

This paper introduces a rubric for assessing QR in student papers and analyzes the inter-rater reliability of the instrument based on a reading session involving 11 participants. Despite the disciplinary diversity of the group (which included a faculty member from the arts and literature, two staff members, and representatives from five natural and social science departments), the rubric produced reliable measures of QR use and proficiency in a sample of student papers. Readers agreed on the relevance and extent of QR in 75.0 and 81.9 percent of cases respectively (corresponding to Cohen’s κ= 0.611 and 0.693). A four-category measure of quality produced slightly less agreement (66.7 percent, κ = 0.532). Collapsing the index into a 3-point scale raises the inter-rater agreement to 77.8 percent (κ = 0.653). The substantial agreement attained by this rubric suggests that it is possible to construct a reliable instrument for the assessment of QR in student arguments.

Family Size and Child Achievement

Using data from the British National Childhood Development Study, this paper examines the quality–quantity trade-off in fertility in multiple measures of child achievement. The results exhibit three characteristics: (1) Family-size effects appear very early in child development – as early as age two; (2) the effects are found in a broad array of achievement measures: labor market, cognitive, physical, and social; and (3) by age 16, the effects of family size stop growing (and what little evidence there is of change after that is not consistently in one direction). The paper argues that these results are inconsistent with preference-based explanations of the trade-off and point to some family-resource constraint. However, the relevant constraint appears more likely to be temporal than financial.

Primary and Secondary School Quality and Intergenerational Earnings Mobility

While theory suggests that public expenditures on education may affect intergenerational earnings mobility, the direction of the effect hinges on whether such outlays substitute for or complement private human capital investments. Analysis of U.S. census data, 1940–2000, shows that state-cohorts with low pupil-to-teacher ratios enjoy less intergenerational mobility: a two-standard-deviation reduction in the pupil-to-teacher ratio increases earnings persistence by 40 percent. These results are robust to controls for the average pupil-to-teacher ratio in the state in years the son was not in school, a result contrary to simple endogeneity stories.

Does Completion of Quantitative Courses Predict Better Quantitative Reasoning-in-Writing Proficiency?

Using data from Carleton College, this study explores the connection between students’ completion of a range of quantitative courses and the quality of their quantitative reasoning in writing (QRW) as exhibited in courses throughout the undergraduate curriculum during the first two years of college. Because the assessment takes place in the context of a campus-wide initiative which has improved QRW on the whole, the study identifies course-taking patterns which predict stronger than average improvement. Results suggest QRW is not exceptionally improved by taking courses in statistics, principles of economics, or in the social sciences more broadly. QRW performance is, on the other hand, correlated strongly with having taken a firstyear seminar specifically designed to teach QR thinking and communication. To a lesser degree, QRW is correlated with courses in the natural sciences and upper-level calculus. It is impossible to rule out all forms of selection bias explanations for these patterns. However, the broad pattern of correlations between QRW, courses, and standardized test scores argues for a causal interpretation.

How Broad Liberal Arts Training Produces PhD Economists: Carleton's Story

Several recent studies point to strong performance in economics PhD programs of graduates from liberal arts colleges. While every undergraduate program is unique and the likelihood of selection bias combines with small sample sizes to caution against drawing strong conclusions, the authors reflect on their experience at Carleton College to identify potentially generalizable principles. They believe that accessibility of the curriculum to non-majors, intense faculty supervision of student-driven research, in-depth advising, and careful programming contribute to Carleton Colleges recent success in producing PhDs. Although some of the practices can be easily adapted, the authors note large opportunity costs associated with many of the choices the College has made.

Forging On-Campus Connections to Enhance Undergraduate Student Reasoning, Writing, and Research Skills.

ABSTRACT Research and writing are critical components of an undergraduate education. Partnerships between economics faculty and campus resources can improve student research and writing skills. Here, the authors describe programs at three different campuses that bridge department and campus resources: the Empirical Reasoning Lab at Barnard College, the Writing Program at Carleton College, and the Librarys Data Lab at the University of California, Berkeley. The authors describe each programs mission and structure, provide examples of its impact on student learning, and discuss administrative factors (and hurdles) to consider in implementing similar programs elsewhere.

A Simulation of Counter-Cyclical Intervention: Some Practical Lessons

The author introduces a simulation of counter-cyclical interventions that highlights important issues surrounding the practice of government intervention. The simulation provides experiential insight as to why economists have long debated the degree of persistence exhibited by disequilibrating shocks and connects this debate to discussions about policy lags. In addition, the author explores the related issues such as unintended procyclical stimuli created by the political business cycle, the importance of central bank independence, the role of automatic stabilizers, and the value of forecasting. The simulation reminds students of the real-life complexities behind curve-shifting textbook problems and cautions that even optimal strategies may fail over short time horizons.

Lynn Steen's Imprint on Demographic Change and the Demand for Higher Education

Nathan D. Grawe. 2018. Demographic Change and the Demand for Higher Education (Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press) 192 pp. ISBN 978-1421424132. This essay introduces and excerpts my Demographic Change and the Demand for Higher Education, published by Johns Hopkins University Press. The book reflects Lynn Steens vision of quantitative reasoning as more to do with the quality of thought than the impressiveness of the mathematical tools involved. The excerpt lays out the basic demographic challenge facing higher education and how a refinement of simple headcount forecasts can support institutions of higher education as they make preparations.