Nathan J. M. Laxague

Pattern in escalations in insurgent and terrorist activity.

The escalation of fatal attacks by insurgent groups follows a common pattern. In military planning, it is important to be able to estimate not only the number of fatalities but how often attacks that result in fatalities will take place. We uncovered a simple dynamical pattern that may be used to estimate the escalation rate and timing of fatal attacks. The time difference between fatal attacks by insurgent groups within individual provinces in both Afghanistan and Iraq, and by terrorist groups operating worldwide, gives a potent indicator of the later pace of lethal activity.

Statistical properties of the surface velocity field in the northern Gulf of Mexico sampled by GLAD drifters

The Grand LAgrangian Deployment (GLAD) used multiscale sampling and GPS technology to observe time series of drifter positions with initial drifter separation of O(100 m) to O(10 km), and nominal 5 min sampling, during the summer and fall of 2012 in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Histograms of the velocity field and its statistical parameters are non-Gaussian; most are multimodal. The dominant periods for the surface velocity field are 1–2 days due to inertial oscillations, tides, and the sea breeze; 5–6 days due to wind forcing and submesoscale eddies; 9–10 days and two weeks or longer periods due to wind forcing and mesoscale variability, including the period of eddy rotation. The temporal e-folding scales of a fitted drifter velocity autocorrelation function are bimodal with time scales, 0.25–0.50 days and 0.9–1.4 days, and are the same order as the temporal e-folding scales of observed winds from nearby moored National Data Buoy Center stations. The Lagrangian integral time scales increase from coastal values of 8 h to offshore values of approximately 2 days with peak values of 3–4 days. The velocity variance is large, O(1)m2/s2, the surface velocity statistics are more anisotropic, and increased dispersion is observed at flow bifurcations. Horizontal diffusivity estimates are O(103)m2/s in coastal regions with weaker flow to O(105)m2/s in flow bifurcations, a strong jet, and during the passage of Hurricane Isaac. The Gulf of Mexico surface velocity statistics sampled by the GLAD drifters are a strong function of the feature sampled, topography, and wind forcing

A Biodegradable Surface Drifter for Ocean Sampling on a Massive Scale

AbstractTargeted observations of submesoscale currents are necessary to improve science’s understanding of oceanic mixing, but these dynamics occur at spatiotemporal scales that are currently challenging to detect. Prior studies have recently shown that the submesoscale surface velocity field can be measured by tracking hundreds of surface drifters released in tight arrays. This strategy requires drifter positioning to be accurate, frequent, and to last for several weeks. However, because of the large numbers involved, drifters must be low-cost, compact, easy to handle, and also made of materials harmless to the environment. Therefore, the novel Consortium for Advanced Research on Transport of Hydrocarbon in the Environment (CARTHE) drifter was designed following these criteria to facilitate massive sampling of near-surface currents during the Lagrangian Submesoscale Experiment (LASER). The drifting characteristics were determined under a wide range of currents, waves, and wind conditions in laboratory se...

The spatial-temporal variability of air-sea momentum fluxes observed at a tidal inlet

Coastal waters are an aerodynamically unique environment that has been little explored from an air-sea interaction point of view. Consequently, most studies must assume that open ocean-derived parameterizations of the air-sea momentum flux are representative of the nearshore wind forcing. Observations made at the New River Inlet in North Carolina, during the Riverine and Estuarine Transport experiment (RIVET), were used to evaluate the suitability of wind speed-dependent, wind stress parameterizations in coastal waters. As part of the field campaign, a small, agile research vessel was deployed to make high-resolution wind velocity measurements in and around the tidal inlet. The eddy covariance method was employed to recover direct estimates of the 10 m neutral atmospheric drag coefficient from the three-dimensional winds. Observations of wind stress angle, near-surface currents, and heat flux were used to analyze the cross-shore variability of wind stress steering off the mean wind azimuth. In general, for onshore winds above 5 m/s, the drag coefficient was observed to be two and a half times the predicted open ocean value. Significant wind stress steering is observed within 2 km of the inlet mouth, which is observed to be correlated with the horizontal current shear. Other mechanisms such as the reduction in wave celerity or depth-limited breaking could also play a role. It was determined that outside the influence of these typical coastal processes, the open ocean parameterizations generally represent the wind stress field. The nearshore stress variability has significant implications for observations and simulations of coastal transport, circulation, mixing, and general surf-zone dynamics.

On the nature of the frontal zone of the Choctawhatchee Bay plume in the Gulf of Mexico

River plumes often feature turbulent processes in the frontal zone and interfacial region at base of the plume, which ultimately impact spreading and mixing rates with the ambient coastal ocean. The degree to which these processes govern overall plume mixing is yet to be quantified with microstructure observations. A field campaign was conducted in a river plume in the northeast Gulf of Mexico in December 2013, in order to assess mixing processes that could potentially impact transport and dispersion of surface material near coastal regions. Current velocity, density, and Turbulent Kinetic Energy Values, e, were obtained using an Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP), a Conductivity Temperature Depth (CTD) profiler, a Vertical Microstructure Profiler (VMP), and two Acoustic Doppler Velocimeters (ADVs). The frontal region contained e values on the order of 10−5 m2 s−3, which were markedly larger than in the ambient water beneath (O 10−9 m2 s−3). An energetic wake of moderate e values (O 10−6 m2 s−3) was observed trailing the frontal edge. The interfacial region of an interior section of the plume featured opposing horizontal velocities and a e value on the order of 10−6 m2 s−3. A simplified mixing budget was used under significant assumptions to compare contributions from wind, tides, and frontal regions of the plume. The results from this order of magnitude analysis indicated that frontal processes (59%) dominated in overall mixing. This emphasizes the importance of adequate parameterization of river plume frontal processes in coastal predictive models.

Spectral characterization of fine-scale wind waves using shipboard optical polarimetry

Fine-scale sea surface waves are of profound importance to a number of air-sea interaction processes. Due to a number of reasons, there exists a great degree of difficulty in obtaining quality in situ observations of these waves. This paper presents the application of a shipboard wave-sensing method toward the following quantifications: regime-specific contribution to sea surface slope and sensitivity to wind speed increases. Measurements were made via polarimetric camera, resolving waves with wavelengths ranging from 0.21 to 0.003 m (30 rad/m < k < 1750 rad/m). The gravity-capillary regime was found to contribute the bulk of mean square slope during stationary wind conditions and supply the majority of mean square slope growth during periods of increasing wind speed. Capillary waves were found to contribute approximately 5% of the overall surface roughness. Furthermore, capillary waves were found to be the least sensitive to increases in wind speed. This implies that such waves saturate at low wind speeds ( ≈ 3 m/s) and slow wind speed increases ( ≈ 0.02 m/s2). The slight roughness contribution from capillary waves and significant contribution from gravity-capillary waves offers insight for scientists in the remote sensing field and important information for the formation of new wave models.

Ocean convergence and the dispersion of flotsam

Significance Ocean currents move material released on the ocean surface away from the release point and, over time, spread it over an increasingly large area. However, observations also show high concentrations of the material even after significant spreading. This work examines a mechanism for creating such concentrations: downwelling of water at the boundaries of different water masses concentrates floating material at this boundary. Hundreds of satellite-tracked drifters were released near the site of the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill. Surprisingly, most of these gathered into a single cluster less than 100 m in size, dramatically demonstrating the strength of this mechanism. Floating oil, plastics, and marine organisms are continually redistributed by ocean surface currents. Prediction of their resulting distribution on the surface is a fundamental, long-standing, and practically important problem. The dominant paradigm is dispersion within the dynamical context of a nondivergent flow: objects initially close together will on average spread apart but the area of surface patches of material does not change. Although this paradigm is likely valid at mesoscales, larger than 100 km in horizontal scale, recent theoretical studies of submesoscales (less than ∼10 km) predict strong surface convergences and downwelling associated with horizontal density fronts and cyclonic vortices. Here we show that such structures can dramatically concentrate floating material. More than half of an array of ∼200 surface drifters covering ∼20 × 20 km2 converged into a 60 × 60 m region within a week, a factor of more than 105 decrease in area, before slowly dispersing. As predicted, the convergence occurred at density fronts and with cyclonic vorticity. A zipperlike structure may play an important role. Cyclonic vorticity and vertical velocity reached 0.001 s−1 and 0.01 ms−1, respectively, which is much larger than usually inferred. This suggests a paradigm in which nearby objects form submesoscale clusters, and these clusters then spread apart. Together, these effects set both the overall extent and the finescale texture of a patch of floating material. Material concentrated at submesoscale convergences can create unique communities of organisms, amplify impacts of toxic material, and create opportunities to more efficiently recover such material.

Near-Surface Current Mapping by Shipboard Marine X-Band Radar: A Validation

AbstractThe Lagrangian Submesoscale Experiment (LASER) involved the deployment of ~1000 biodegradable GPS-tracked Consortium for Advanced Research on Transport of Hydrocarbon in the Environment (CA...

Passive Optical Sensing of the Near-Surface Wind-Driven Current Profile

AbstractEstimation of near-surface current is essential to the estimation of upper-ocean material transport. Wind forcing and wave motions are dominant in the near-surface layer [within O(0.01) m of the surface], where the highly sheared flows can differ greatly from those at depth. This study presents a new method for remotely measuring the directional wind and wave drift current profile near to the surface (between 0.01 and 0.001 m for the laboratory and between 0.1 and 0.001 m for the field). This work follows the spectral analysis of high spatial (0.002 m) and temporal resolution (60 Hz) wave slope images, allowing for the evaluation of near-surface current characteristics without having to rely on instruments that may disturb the flow. Observations gathered in the 15 m × 1 m × 1 m wind-wave flume at the University of Miami’s Surge-Structure-Atmosphere Interaction (SUSTAIN) facility show that currents retrieved via this method agree well with the drift velocity of camera-tracked dye. Application of th...

Sea Spray Generation in Very High Winds

AbstractQuantifying the amount and rate of sea spray production at the ocean surface is critical to understanding the effect spray has on atmospheric boundary layer processes (e.g., tropical cyclones). Currently, only limited observational data exist that can be used to validate available droplet production models. To help fill this gap, a laboratory experiment was conducted that directly observed the vertical distribution of spume droplets above actively breaking waves. The experiments were carried out in hurricane-force conditions (10-m equivalent wind speed of 36–54 m s−1), and the observed particles ranged in radius r from 80 to nearly 1400 μm. High-resolution profiles (3 mm) were reconstructed from optical imagery taken within the boundary layer, ranging from 2 to 6 times the local significant wave height. Number concentrations were observed to have a radius dependence proportional to r−3 leading to spume production estimates that diverge from typical source models, which tend to exhibit a radius fal...