Nathan Y. Sharp

Inside the 'Black Box' of Sell-Side Financial Analysts

Our objective is to penetrate the “black box” of sell-side financial analysts by providing new insights into the inputs analysts use and the incentives they face. We survey 365 analysts and conduct 18 follow-up interviews covering a wide range of topics, including the inputs to analysts’ earnings forecasts and stock recommendations, the value of their industry knowledge, the determinants of their compensation, the career benefits of Institutional Investor All-Star status, and the factors they consider indicative of high-quality earnings. One important finding is that private communication with management is a more useful input to analysts’ earnings forecasts and stock recommendations than their own primary research, recent earnings performance, and recent 10-K and 10-Q reports. Another notable finding is that issuing earnings forecasts and stock recommendations that are well below the consensus often leads to an increase in analysts’ credibility with their investing clients. We conduct cross-sectional analyses that highlight the impact of analyst and brokerage characteristics on analysts’ inputs and incentives. Our findings are relevant to investors, managers, analysts, and academic researchers.

Internal Audit Outsourcing and the Risk of Misleading or Fraudulent Financial Reporting: Did Sarbanes-Oxley Get It Wrong?

The Sarbanes-Oxley Act (SOX) prohibits companies from outsourcing internal audit work to their external audit provider. Competing predictions on the effects of this prohibition stem from two academic arguments relating to the provision of nonaudit services by the external auditor: knowledge spillover and economic bonding. Using proprietary data, we investigate whether companies that outsourced internal audit work to their external auditor pre-SOX had a higher risk of misleading or fraudulent external financial reporting (accounting risk). Consistent with the knowledge spillover argument, our results indicate that prior to SOX, outsourcing internal audit work to the external auditor is associated with lower accounting risk as compared to keeping the internal audit function (IAF) entirely in-house or outsourcing the work of the IAF to a third party other than the external auditor. The magnitude of the relation is significant, as outsourcing to the external auditor is associated with a 23 percent reduction in accounting risk relative to firms that kept the IAF in-house.

Short Selling Around Restatement Announcements When Do Bears Pounce

This paper draws on two distinct literatures – one that investigates the impact of accounting restatements and another that investigates the trading behavior of short sellers – to further our understanding of how sophisticated investors process and respond to news about accounting corrections. We examine short-seller behavior in the days surrounding restatement announcements to determine when short sellers identify restatements and how they trade on restatement news. Our findings suggest that short sellers do not appear to anticipate restatement announcement dates, but we find that abnormal short selling is significantly higher than is typical when restatements are announced, especially for restatements announced transparently (i.e., in press releases or 8-Ks). Short sellers target small companies, whose information environments may be weaker, and companies making restatements that reduce previously reported income. In addition, we find that restating companies targeted most heavily by short sellers experience the most negative subsequent abnormal returns over horizons of up to 40 trading days following the restatement disclosure. Overall, our results suggest that short sellers respond to, but do not anticipate, restatement announcements and trade as if they understand the post-announcement stock price implications of restatement disclosures.

Short Selling Around Restatement Announcements

This article draws on two distinct literatures—one that investigates the impact of accounting restatements and another that investigates the trading behavior of short sellers—to further our understanding of how sophisticated investors process and respond to news about accounting corrections. We examine short-seller behavior in the days surrounding restatement announcements to determine when short sellers identify restatements and how they trade on restatement news. Our findings suggest that short sellers do not appear to anticipate restatement announcement dates, but we find that abnormal short selling is significantly higher than is typical when restatements are announced, especially for restatements announced transparently (i.e., in press releases or 8-Ks). Short sellers target small companies, whose information environments may be weaker, and companies making restatements that reduce previously reported income. In addition, we find that restating companies targeted most heavily by short sellers experience the most negative subsequent abnormal returns over horizons of up to 40 trading days following the restatement disclosure. Overall, our results suggest that short sellers respond to, but do not anticipate, restatement announcements and trade as if they understand the post-announcement stock price implications of restatement disclosures.

Working on the Weekend: Do Analysts Strategically Time the Release of Their Recommendation Revisions?

We examine whether financial analysts strategically time the announcement of their recommendation revisions consistent with their incentives to maintain relations with management. We provide evidence that investor and media attention to recommendation revisions is reduced on weekends, which analysts can exploit to strategically time the release of their revisions. We find that downgrades are a higher proportion of weekend revisions than weekday revisions and that analysts with characteristics that suggest they possess the strongest incentives to maintain favor with management are more likely to downgrade on the weekend. In contrast, analysts absent these characteristics are more likely to release downgrades during the week, consistent with these analysts being driven primarily by other incentives, such as the timely release of their recommendation and garnering media attention. We also present evidence suggesting that strategic disclosure of recommendation downgrades is associated with greater access to management on public earnings conference calls.

Are State Tax Amnesty Programs Associated with Financial Reporting Irregularities

This article investigates the relation between state tax amnesties and financial reporting irregularities. State tax amnesty programs, which potentially signal a lax regulatory enforcement environment, provide a unique setting in which to examine the effects of state tax authorities on non-tax financial reporting behavior. The results suggest that firms headquartered in states offering a tax amnesty program are more likely to begin engaging in a financial reporting irregularity during the amnesty period. Furthermore, the results show that the observed increase in financial reporting irregularities occurs only during periods of repeat, not initial, amnesty programs. These findings suggest state tax amnesties have previously unexplored adverse effects on managers’ behavior.

The People in Your Neighborhood: Evidence of Local Information Leakage Around Corporate Headquarters When Insiders Trade

This study adds to the literature on the existence of information asymmetries in financial markets by investigating whether information leakage occurs in the local geographic area surrounding corporate headquarters at the time of nonpublic corporate events. On days when a corporation’s headquarters city is the top location for Google searches for company-specific financial information, we find that insider selling is positively associated with the volume of Google search. This result is consistent with information leakage in close proximity to corporate headquarters before news of insider selling is public. In addition, we find that insider selling is negatively associated with Google search volume when the top search location is away from corporate headquarters, consistent with insiders avoiding selling shares around public information events. We also find more negative future abnormal returns when local information search is high at the time of insider selling. Collectively, our results provide evidence consistent with a local information advantage near corporate headquarters when insiders sell their shares.