Natsuki Fujita

Import Substitution and Export Promotion in the Growth of the Indonesian Industrial Sector

Indonesia lagged behind most Asian developing economies in growth and indus trialization during the 1960s. In the 1970s, however, Indonesia experienced very high real growth and this was reflected in rapid expansion of the industrial sector. There was a subtle change in policy emphasis during the mid-1970s away from the import substitution strategy in favour of a more export-oriented approach. This study seeks to evaluate how successful this was in making use of input-output analysis, using data from 1971, 1975, and 1980. The sources of output expansion are decomposed into four categories: domestic final demand, export demand, import substitution, and technological change. The findings indicate that the measures designed to stimulate export growth were moderately successful.

Growth Patterns of the Japanese Economy in the 1980s: Before and After the Appreciation of the Yen

Input–output tables are used to examine output and employment growth patterns in Japanese industries between 1980–85 and 1985–88. The purpose is to determine if substantial structural change in output and employment had occurred following the sharp real appreciation of the yen against the dollar and other currencies in 1985. The results indicate Japan had shifted from export-led growth in 1980–85 to domestic-demand-driven growth in 1985–88. There were substantial changes in the composition of Japanese imports, including a much larger proportion of manufactured goods. Employment growth in manufacturing industries slowed in the late 1980s indicating the structural change was not painless. Japans new growth pattern appears to be favorable for other export-oriented developing Asian countries and may help offset slower imports by the USA as it reduces its macroeconomic imbalances.

Impact of increased eating away from home on volume and composition of Japanese imports of agricultural products

An input-output model is used to analyze the impacts of consumption of food away from home (FAFH) on domestic agricultural production and foreign imports in Japan. The results show that FAFH induced considerable growth of imports of meat and dairy products, seafood, and tobacco during 1980 to 1989. Additional insights on the growth of these imports are revealed by disaggregating FAFH into subsectors. ©1994 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Export oriented growth of output and employment in Taiwan and Korea, 1973/74—1983/84

ZusammenfassungExportorientiertes Wachstum von Produktion und Beschäftigung in Taiwan und Korea von 1973/74 bis 1983/84. — Die exportorientierte Industrialisierung in Taiwan und Korea begann in den sechziger Jahren. Jedoch gab es in den siebziger Jahren externe Schocks, welche für diese beiden dynamischen Volkswirtschaften eine Bedrohung darstellten. Die beiden untersuchten Länder reagierten auf die externen Schocks in unterschiedlicher Weise. Korea begann in der zweiten Hälfte der siebziger Jahre, die Schwerindustrie auszubauen, während Taiwan die internationale Wettbewerbsfähigkeit seiner kleinen und mittleren Unternehmen zu verstärken suchte. Die Autoren dieses Aufsatzes benutzen ein Input/Output-Modell, um die unterschiedlichen Wirkungen auf Wachstum und Beschäftigung zu zeigen, die sich aus diesen verschiedenen Reaktionen in der Zeit von 1974 bis 1984 ergaben. Im ganzen scheint das Vorgehen Taiwans erfolgreicher gewesen zu sein, um Exporte, Beschäftigung und Strukturwandel zu fördern.RésuméL’accroissement de l’output orienté vers l’exportation et l’emploi au Taiwan et en Corée, 1973/74—1983/84. — L’industrialisation qui est orientée vers l’exportation au Taiwan et en Corée a commencé dans les années 1960. Cependant, dans les années 1970 des chocs extérieurs ont menacé ces deux économies dynamiques. Ces deux pays ont réagit sur ces chocs d’une manière différente. La Corée a initié une stratégie de l’industrialisation concentrée sur l’industrie lourde dans la deuxième moitié des années 1970. Le Taiwan a mis l’accent sur l’augmentation de la compétitivité internationale de ses entreprises de taille petite et moyenne. Dans l’étude présente on utilise un modèle «input-output» pour montrer les effets des actions différentes sur l’accroissement de la production et de l’emploi pendant les années 1974 à 1984. En général, il semble que la stratégie économique de Taiwan a eu plus de succès à stimuler l’exportation, l’emploi et le changement structurel.ResumenEl crecimiento del producto y del empleo orientado hacia las exportaciones en Taiwan y Corea 1973/74—1983/84. — La industrialización orientada hacia las exportaciones comenzó en Taiwán y Corea en la década de los sesenta. En los afios setenta, empero, shocks externos significaron una amenaza para estas economías dinámicas. Las respuestas de ambos divergieron durante la década de shocks externos. Corea inició una estrategia de industrialización pesada en la segunda mitad de los años setenta. Taiwán enfatizó la creciente competitividad de sus empresas de escala pequeña y mediana. En este trabajo se utiliza un modelo insumo-producto para mostrar las diferencias en los efectos de crecimiento y empleo de estas diferentes respuestas durante el período 1974–1984. En general, el enfoque de Taiwan parece haber sido el mejor en promover las exportaciones, el empleo y el cambio estructural.

Exports, Manufacturing Linkages, and Employment in the Philippines, 1961 to 1983

Three resource-rich Southeast Asian nations-Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailandhave demonstrated strong economic growth for the last 30 years. In the 1960s real growth of GDP ranged from 4% for Indonesia to nearly 8% for Thailand. These GDP growth rates, though lower than those of the Asian NIEs, were much higher than the average for LDCs. Southeast Asia’s per capita income growth of 4 to 5% annually has been impressive. The lone exception has been the Philippines. The assassination of Senator Aquino, of course, triggered a serious political crisis, but the Philippine problem began much earlier than 1983. Economic growth has slowed since the late 1970s. Per capita income growth over the period from 1965 to 1985 averaged less than 2%, comparable to that of South Asian countries. l The weakness in the growth record is reflected in the long-term unsustainability of industrial growth rates and the poor record of labor absorption. The central purpose of this article is to examine, using input-output techniques, how trade policies may have affected patterns of industrial growth in the Philippines. Moreover, since one of the important objectives of the developing countries is to minimize their unemployment (especially in urban areas), the relationship between industrial growth and employment will also be examined. An unbroken string of studies on the Philippine industrial and trade policy regime (Golay, 1961; Power and Sicat, 1971; Sicat, 1974; Baldwin, 1975; Bautista and Power, 1979; Sicat, 1984; Hooley, 1985; Shepherd and Alburo, 1991) provide a running commentary on the Philippine development experience. The recurring