Naveed Z. Janjua

Association between the 2008-09 seasonal influenza vaccine and pandemic H1N1 illness during Spring-Summer 2009: four observational studies from Canada.

BACKGROUND In late spring 2009, concern was raised in Canada that prior vaccination with the 2008-09 trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (TIV) was associated with increased risk of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) (pH1N1) illness. Several epidemiologic investigations were conducted through the summer to assess this putative association. METHODS AND FINDINGS STUDIES INCLUDED (1) test-negative case-control design based on Canadas sentinel vaccine effectiveness monitoring system in British Columbia, Alberta, Ontario, and Quebec; (2) conventional case-control design using population controls in Quebec; (3) test-negative case-control design in Ontario; and (4) prospective household transmission (cohort) study in Quebec. Logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios for TIV effect on community- or hospital-based laboratory-confirmed seasonal or pH1N1 influenza cases compared to controls with restriction, stratification, and adjustment for covariates including combinations of age, sex, comorbidity, timeliness of medical visit, prior physician visits, and/or health care worker (HCW) status. For the prospective study risk ratios were computed. Based on the sentinel study of 672 cases and 857 controls, 2008-09 TIV was associated with statistically significant protection against seasonal influenza (odds ratio 0.44, 95% CI 0.33-0.59). In contrast, estimates from the sentinel and three other observational studies, involving a total of 1,226 laboratory-confirmed pH1N1 cases and 1,505 controls, indicated that prior receipt of 2008-09 TIV was associated with increased risk of medically attended pH1N1 illness during the spring-summer 2009, with estimated risk or odds ratios ranging from 1.4 to 2.5. Risk of pH1N1 hospitalization was not further increased among vaccinated people when comparing hospitalized to community cases. CONCLUSIONS Prior receipt of 2008-09 TIV was associated with increased risk of medically attended pH1N1 illness during the spring-summer 2009 in Canada. The occurrence of bias (selection, information) or confounding cannot be ruled out. Further experimental and epidemiological assessment is warranted. Possible biological mechanisms and immunoepidemiologic implications are considered.

Low 2012–13 Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness Associated with Mutation in the Egg-Adapted H3N2 Vaccine Strain Not Antigenic Drift in Circulating Viruses

Background Influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) is generally interpreted in the context of vaccine match/mismatch to circulating strains with evolutionary drift in the latter invoked to explain reduced protection. During the 2012–13 season, however, detailed genotypic and phenotypic characterization shows that low VE was instead related to mutations in the egg-adapted H3N2 vaccine strain rather than antigenic drift in circulating viruses. Methods/Findings Component-specific VE against medically-attended, PCR-confirmed influenza was estimated in Canada by test-negative case-control design. Influenza A viruses were characterized genotypically by amino acid (AA) sequencing of established haemagglutinin (HA) antigenic sites and phenotypically through haemagglutination inhibition (HI) assay. H3N2 viruses were characterized in relation to the WHO-recommended, cell-passaged vaccine prototype (A/Victoria/361/2011) as well as the egg-adapted strain as per actually used in vaccine production. Among the total of 1501 participants, influenza virus was detected in 652 (43%). Nearly two-thirds of viruses typed/subtyped were A(H3N2) (394/626; 63%); the remainder were A(H1N1)pdm09 (79/626; 13%), B/Yamagata (98/626; 16%) or B/Victoria (54/626; 9%). Suboptimal VE of 50% (95%CI: 33–63%) overall was driven by predominant H3N2 activity for which VE was 41% (95%CI: 17–59%). All H3N2 field isolates were HI-characterized as well-matched to the WHO-recommended A/Victoria/361/2011 prototype whereas all but one were antigenically distinct from the egg-adapted strain as per actually used in vaccine production. The egg-adapted strain was itself antigenically distinct from the WHO-recommended prototype, and bore three AA mutations at antigenic sites B [H156Q, G186V] and D [S219Y]. Conversely, circulating viruses were identical to the WHO-recommended prototype at these positions with other genetic variation that did not affect antigenicity. VE was 59% (95%CI:16–80%) against A(H1N1)pdm09, 67% (95%CI: 30–85%) against B/Yamagata (vaccine-lineage) and 75% (95%CI: 29–91%) against B/Victoria (non-vaccine-lineage) viruses. Conclusions These findings underscore the need to monitor vaccine viruses as well as circulating strains to explain vaccine performance. Evolutionary drift in circulating viruses cannot be regulated, but influential mutations introduced as part of egg-based vaccine production may be amenable to improvements.

Effectiveness of AS03 adjuvanted pandemic H1N1 vaccine: case-control evaluation based on sentinel surveillance system in Canada, autumn 2009

Objective To assess the effectiveness of the pandemic influenza A/H1N1 vaccine used in Canada during autumn 2009. Design Test negative incident case-control study based on sentinel physician surveillance system. Setting Community based clinics contributing to sentinel networks in British Columbia, Alberta, Ontario, and Quebec, Canada. Participants 552 patients who presented to a sentinel site within seven days of onset of influenza-like illness during the primary analysis period between 8 November and 5 December 2009; participants were mostly (>80%) children and adults under 50 years old. Interventions Monovalent AS03 adjuvanted pandemic influenza A/H1N1 vaccine as the predominant formulation (>95%) distributed in Canada. Main outcome measures Vaccine effectiveness calculated as 1−(odds ratio for influenza in vaccinated (received pandemic H1N1 vaccine at least two weeks before onset of influenza-like illness) versus unvaccinated participants), with adjustment for age, comorbidity, province, timeliness of specimen collection, and week of illness onset. Sensitivity analyses explored the influence of varying analysis periods between 1 November and 31 December, receipt of trivalent seasonal influenza vaccine, and restriction to participants without comorbidity. Results During the primary analysis period, pandemic H1N1 was detected by reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction in 209/552 (38%) participants; rates were highest in children and young adults (40%) and lowest in people aged 65 or over (9%). Among the 209 cases, 35 (17%) reported comorbidity compared with 80/343 (23%) controls. Two (1%) cases had received pandemic H1N1 vaccine at least two weeks before the onset of illness, compared with 58/343 (17%) controls, all single dose. Adjusted vaccine effectiveness overall was 93% (95% confidence interval 69% to 98%). High estimates of vaccine protection—generally at least 90%—were maintained across most sensitivity analyses. Conclusions Although limited by a small number of vaccine failures, this study suggests that the monovalent AS03 adjuvanted vaccine used in Canada during autumn 2009 was highly effective in preventing medically attended, laboratory confirmed pandemic H1N1 illness, with reference in particular to a single dose in children and young adults.

Immuno-epidemiologic Correlates of Pandemic H1N1 Surveillance Observations: Higher Antibody and Lower Cell-Mediated Immune Responses with Advanced Age

BACKGROUND Pandemic H1N1 (pH1N1) surveillance data showed lower attack rates but higher risk of severe outcomes with advanced age. We explored immuno-epidemiologic correlates of surveillance findings including humoral and cell-mediated immunity (CMI). METHODS In an age-based design, ∼100 banked/residual sera per 10-year age stratum were assessed by hemagglutination inhibition (HI) and microneutralization (MN) assays for preexisting antibody to pH1N1 and recent seasonal H1N1 and H3N2 strains. In a separate birth cohort design defined by childhood influenza A/subtype priming (1919-1929: H1N1; 1945-1949: H1N1; 1958-1960: H2N2; 1969-1970: H3N2; 1978-1989: H3N2/H1N1), whole blood was collected from up to 50 volunteers per birth cohort. The ratio of Th1(IFN-γ):Th2(IL-10) cytokine responses was evaluated in vitro. RESULTS Antibody to seasonal viruses was highest in school-age children. Cross-reactive HI/MN antibody to pH1N1 was low among participants <70 years of age (yoa; 6%/4% ≥ 40), but seroprevalence increased at 70-79 yoa (27%/6%), increased even more at 80-89 yoa (65%/47%), and was highest at ≥90 yoa (88%/76%). CMI to pH1N1 was evident in all 5 birth cohorts but was lower compared with seasonal strains. There was little differentiation by subtype priming, but the Th1:Th2 ratio for all viruses dropped significantly in the 2 oldest cohorts. CONCLUSIONS Preexisting antibody may have protected the very old from pH1N1 infection, while diminished CMI may have contributed to greater severity once infected. In the young, cross-reactive pH1N1 antibody was mostly absent, while more intact CMI may have protected against severe outcomes.

Cross-reactive and Vaccine-Induced Antibody to an Emerging Swine-Origin Variant of Influenza A Virus Subtype H3N2 (H3N2v)

BACKGROUND Cases of infection due to a novel swine-origin variant of influenza A virus subtype H3N2 (H3N2v) have recently been identified in the United States, primarily among children. We estimate levels of cross-reactive antibody to H3N2v by age and assess whether seasonal trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (TIV), with or without adjuvant, may increase seroprotection. METHODS Antibody to H3N2v was assessed by hemagglutination inhibition (HI) assay and, for a subset, also by microneutralization assay. Seroprevalence and seroprotection were defined as an HI titer of ≥40, and levels were compared with those for ancestral and contemporary human strains. The analysis included 1116 sera collected during fall 2010, corresponding to approximately 100 sera per decade of life. Vaccine-induced antibody levels were also assessed in sera from 136 children aged <10 years and 65 adults aged 20-59 years before and after receipt of 2010-2011 split TIV and in sera from 182 elderly individuals aged ≥65 years before and after receipt of 2011-2012 split TIV (for 31 individuals), MF59-adjuvanted TIV (for 72), or unadjuvanted subunit TIV (for 79). RESULTS The overall prevalence of HI titers of ≥40 against A(H3N2)v was 25%. No children aged <5 years and <20% of individuals aged ≤14 years or ≥40 years had an HI titer of ≥40. Conversely, among individuals aged 15-39 years, half of teens and adults showed H3N2v seroprotection. Following TIV receipt, <15% of individuals in any vaccine group developed a 4-fold increase in antibody level. CONCLUSIONS A substantial proportion of adolescents and young adults have cross-reactive antibody against emerging H3N2v, whereas children and older adults show broad susceptibility. Recent formulations of TIV do not substantially increase seroprotection. A specific vaccine would be needed if H3N2v establishes epidemic spread. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION NCT01140009 and NCT01368796.

Seasonal Influenza Vaccine and Increased Risk of Pandemic A/H1N1-Related Illness: First Detection of the Association in British Columbia, Canada

Abstract Background. In April 2009, an elementary school outbreak of pandemic H1N1 (pH1N1) influenza was reported in a community in northern British Columbia, Canada-an area that includes both non-Aboriginal and Aboriginal residents living on or off a reserve. During the outbreak investigation, we explored the relationship between prior receipt of trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (TIV) and pH1N1-related illness. Methods. A telephone survey was conducted from 15 May through 5 June 2009 among households of children attending any school in the affected community. Members of participating households where influenza-like illness (ILI) was described were then invited to submit blood samples for confirmation of pH1N1 infection by hemagglutination inhibition and microneutralization assays. Circulation of pH1N1 was concentrated among households of the elementary school and elsewhere on-reserve to which analyses of TIV effect were thus restricted. Odds ratios (ORs) for the TIV effect on ILI were computed through logistic regression, with adjustment for age, comorbidity, household density, and Aboriginal status. The influence of within-household clustering was assessed through generalized-linear-mixed models. Results. Of 408 participants, 92 (23%) met ILI criteria: 29 (32%) of 92 persons with ILI, compared with 61 (19%) 316 persons without ILI, had received the 2008–2009 formulation of TIV. Fully adjusted ORs for 2008- 2009 TIV effect on ILI were 2.45 (95% confidence interval, 1.34–4.48) by logistic regression and 2.68 [95% confidence interval, 1.37–5.25) by generalized-linear-mixed model. Conclusions. An outbreak investigation in British Columbia during the late spring of 2009 provided the first indication of an unexpected association between receipt of TIV and pH1N1 illness. This led to 5 additional studies through the summer 2009 in Canada, each of which corroborated these initial findings.

Estimates of Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness for 2007–2008 From Canada's Sentinel Surveillance System: Cross-Protection Against Major and Minor Variants

OBJECTIVES To estimate influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) for the 2007-2008 season and assess the sentinel surveillance system in Canada for monitoring virus evolution and impact on VE. METHODS Nasal/nasopharyngeal swabs and epidemiologic details were collected from patients presenting to a sentinel physician within 7 days of influenza-like illness onset. Cases tested positive for influenza A/B virus by real-time polymerase chain reaction; controls tested negative. Hemagglutination inhibition (HI) and gene sequencing explored virus relatedness to vaccine. VE was calculated as 1 minus the odds ratio for influenza in vaccinated versus nonvaccinated participants, with adjustment for confounders. RESULTS Of 1425 participants, 21% were vaccinated. Influenza virus was detected in 689 (48%), of which isolates from 663 were typed/subtyped: 189 (29%) were A/H1, 210 (32%) were A/H3, and 264 (40%) were B. Of A/H1N1 isolates, 6% showed minor HI antigenic mismatch to vaccine, with greater variation based on genetic identity. All A/H3N2 isolates showed moderate antigenic mismatch, and 98% of influenza B virus isolates showed major lineage-level mismatch to vaccine. Adjusted VE for A/H1N1, A/H3N2, and B components was 69% (95% confidence interval [CI], 44%-83%), 57% (95% CI, 32%-73%), and 55% (95% CI, 32%-70%), respectively, with an overall VE of 60% (95% CI, 45%-71%). CONCLUSIONS Detailed antigenic and genotypic analysis of influenza viruses was consistent with epidemiologic estimates of VE showing cross-protection. A routine sentinel surveillance system that combines detailed virus and VE monitoring annually, as modeled in Canada, may guide improved vaccine selection and protection.

Health burden of skin lesions at low arsenic exposure through groundwater in Pakistan. Is river the source

A significant proportion of groundwater in south Asia is contaminated with arsenic. Pakistan has low levels of arsenic in groundwater compared with China, Bangladesh and India. A representative multi-stage cluster survey conducted among 3874 persons > or = 15 years of age to determine the prevalence of arsenic skin lesions, its relation with arsenic levels and cumulative arsenic dose in drinking water in a rural district (population: 1.82 million) in Pakistan. Spot-urine arsenic levels were compared among individuals with and without arsenic skin lesions. In addition, the relation of age, body mass index, smoking status with arsenic skin lesions was determined. The geographical distribution of the skin lesions and arsenic-contaminated wells in the district were ascertained using global positioning system. The total arsenic, inorganic and organic forms, in water and spot-urine samples were determined by atomic absorption spectrophotometry. The prevalence of skin lesions of arsenic was estimated for complex survey design, using surveyfreq and surveylogistic options of SAS 9.1 software.The prevalence of definitive cases i.e. hyperkeratosis of both palms and soles, was 3.4 per 1000 and suspected cases i.e. any sign of arsenic skin lesions (melanosis and/or keratosis), were 13.0 per 1000 among > or = 15-year-old persons in the district. Cumulative arsenic exposure (dose) was calculated from levels of arsenic in water and duration of use of current drinking water source. Prevalence of skin lesions increases with cumulative arsenic exposure (dose) in drinking water and arsenic levels in urine. Skin lesions were 2.5-fold among individuals with BMI <18.5 kg/m2. Geographically, more arsenic-contaminated wells and skin lesions were alongside Indus River, suggests a strong link between arsenic contamination of groundwater with proximity to river.This is the first reported epidemiological and clinical evidence of arsenic skin lesions due to groundwater in Pakistan. Further investigations and focal mitigation measures for arsenic may be carried out alongside Indus River.

Poor knowledge – predictor of nonadherence to universal precautions for blood borne pathogens at first level care facilities in Pakistan

BackgroundWe conducted an assessment of knowledge about blood borne pathogens (BBP) and use of universal precautions at first level care facilities (FLCF) in two districts of Pakistan.MethodsWe conducted a cross-sectional survey and selected three different types of FLCFs ; public, general practitioners and unqualified practitioners through stratified random sampling technique. At each facility, we interviewed a prescriber, a dispenser, and a housekeeper for knowledge of BBPs transmission and preventive practices, risk perception, and use of universal precautions. We performed multiple linear regression to assess the effect of knowledge score (11 items) on the practice of universal precautions score (4 items- use of gloves, gown, needle recapping, and HBV vaccination).ResultsWe interviewed 239 subjects. Most of the participants 128 (53%) were recruited from general practitioners clinics and 166 (69.5%) of them were dispensers. Mean (SD) knowledge score was 3.8 (2.3) with median of 4. MBBS prescribers had the highest knowledge score while the housekeepers had the lowest. Mean universal precautions use score was 2.7 ± 2.1. Knowledge about mode of transmission and the work experience alone, significantly predicted universal precaution use in multiple linear regression model (adR2 = 0.093).ConclusionKnowledge about mode of transmission of blood borne pathogens is very low. Use of universal precautions can improve with increase in knowledge.

Acute health effects of the Tasman Spirit oil spill on residents of Karachi, Pakistan

BackgroundOn July 27 2003, a ship carrying crude oil run aground near Karachi and after two weeks released 37,000 tons of its cargo into the sea. Oil on the coastal areas and fumes in air raised health concerns among people. We assessed the immediate health impact of oil spill from the tanker Tasman Spirit on residents of the affected coastline in Karachi, Pakistan.MethodsWe conducted a study consisting of an exposed group including adults living in houses on the affected shoreline and two control groups (A and B) who lived at the distance of 2 km and 20 km away from the sea, respectively. We selected households through systematic sampling and interviewed an adult male and female in each household about symptoms relating to eyes, respiratory tract, skin and nervous system, smoking, allergies, beliefs about the effect on their health and anxiety about the health effects. We used logistic regression procedures to model each symptom as an outcome and the exposure status as an independent variable while adjusting for confounders. We also used linear regression procedure to assess the relationship exposure status with symptoms score; calculated by summation of all symptoms.ResultsOverall 400 subjects were interviewed (exposed, n = 216; group A, n = 83; and group B, n = 101). The exposed group reported a higher occurrence of one or more symptoms compared to either of the control groups (exposed, 96% vs. group A, 70%, group B 85%; P < 0.001). Mean summary symptom scores were higher among the exposed group (14.5) than control group A (4.5) and control group B (3.8, P < 0.001). Logistic regression models indicated that there were statistically significant, moderate-to-strong associations (Prevalence ORs (POR) ranging from 2.3 to 37.0) between the exposed group and the symptoms. There was a trend of decreasing symptom-specific PORs with increase in distance from the spill site. Multiple linear regression model revealed strong relationship of exposure status with the symptoms score (β = 8.24, 95% CI: 6.37 – 10.12).ConclusionResults suggest that the occurrence of increased symptoms among the exposed group is more likely to be due to exposure to the crude oil spill.