Nazli Avdan

Human trafficking and migration control policy: vicious or virtuous cycle?

This paper examines the relationship between states’ migration control policies and human trafficking in origin, transit and destination states. Using cross-sectional data on states’ visa policies for 192 states and indicators for human trafficking from the Global Patterns report by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, the paper analyses feedback mechanisms between policies and trafficking. The empirical evidence suggests that, contrary to the pessimistic predictions of policy scholarship, the feedback is characterised by a virtuous mechanism. Firstly, the results show that, in line with expectations of security studies, states tighten visa policies in response to trafficking threats. Origin and transit states face a greater number of restrictions on travel. Similarly, destination states of trafficking impose tighter controls. Secondly, visa restrictions against origin and transit countries mitigate trafficking from and through these states. Finally, the paper demonstrates that the vicious effect whereby stricter policies exacerbate trafficking pertains mostly to destination states’ visa policies and to visas imposed at borders.

Controlling Access to Territory Economic Interdependence, Transnational Terrorism, and Visa Policies

Previous scholarship has largely failed to address the effect of economic interdependence on issue areas other than interstate conflict. This study seeks to redress this lacuna by focusing on states’ visa policies and examining the impact of trade and capital interdependence in the context of transnational terrorism. The article argues that economic ties affect visa policies through a reconfiguration of preferences and the opportunity costs of economic loss and by tempering the impact of terrorism. To support this claim, the study conducts statistical analysis using directed dyad data on the visa policies of 207 states and independent political units. The article shows that the impact of economic interdependence is contingent on whether states are directly targeted in attacks of terrorism or face indirect threats from global terror. The study finds that economic incentives overwhelm security concerns when threats are indirect but have relatively limited influence, given threats against a state’s own citizens or territory.

Do asylum recognition rates in Europe respond to transnational terrorism? The migration-security nexus revisited:

Scholars assume that transnational terrorism has culminated in policy securitization with expansive restrictions on migration. I evaluate the impact of transnational terrorism on asylum recognition among European Union and Schengen member-states from 1980 until 2007. I unpack the impact of terrorism according to the location of incidents. The article illustrates that policy tightening is more pronounced when recipient states experience terrorism on their own soil or against their citizens. In contrast, measuring transnational terrorism as attacks worldwide mutes the impact of security concerns. The findings show that policy stringency is not directed against particular sources of terrorism and demonstrates that the humanitarian principles underpinning asylum recognition have not been eroded by terrorism. The article thus represents an important step in differentiating between channels of impact whereby transnational terror shapes policy outcomes.

Democracies at risk? A forecasting analysis of regime type and the risk of terrorist attack

How substantial is democracy as a cause of transnational terrorist attacks? Can our identification of democratic political systems help us to anticipate the flow of transnational terrorism? We seek to address these questions by analyzing data on transnational terrorist incidents from 1968 to 2007. We rely on receiver operating curves as a diagnostic tool to assess forecasting ability of various models of terrorist activity. Our analyses yield four central conclusions. First, our model of transnational terrorism provides a fairly strong basis for forecasting attacks—at least at the (relatively broad) level of the country-year. Second, while the overall forecasting capacity of this model is fairly strong, democracy adds very little to our capacity to forecast terrorist attacks relative to a parsimonious model that includes only distance and the prior history of terrorism. Collectively, these two variables perform about as well as a much more broadly specified model in forecasting terrorist attacks out of sample. Third, the model is highly redundant in a predictive sense. That is, many if not most of the other variables appear to provide similar information in terms of identifying terrorist attacks. Finally, we suggest that scholars focus on the development of more fine-grained and time-variant predictive indicators in order to improve our ability to forecast transnational terrorism.

V for Vendetta: Government Mass Killing and Domestic Terrorism

ABSTRACT Scholarship explores the impact of human rights abuse and state repression on terrorism. Heretofore, scholarship has ignored the impact of government-sponsored killings on domestic terrorism. This article proposes that mass killings create a focal point for terrorist mobilization. The vendetta agenda fuels violence by animating retributory violence. Additionally, mass atrocities create a permissive environment for violent nonstate activity. A spiral of violence ensues whereby groups resort to terrorism. Utilizing data from the Global Terrorism Database, 1971–2011, the study shows that mass killings significantly increase domestic terrorism. It contributes to emerging scholarship examining how state policies influence terrorist activity.

Outlawing sexual violence: rape law and the likelihood of civil war

Abstract An expanding body of literature maintains that gender inequality heightens the probability of intrastate conflict by creating a structure of violence. The paper proposes the legal system as the missing link between social norms and conflict occurrence. Gender neutrality of the penal code coheres with norms of equality and, further, embodies egalitarian, progressive values associated with pacific norms of conflict resolution. The criminalization of rape enhances female empowerment by offering a legal commitment on the part of the state to safeguard women’s physical security. More broadly, legal prohibitions against rape protect women and other vulnerable individuals from sexual aggression. The statistical analysis uses novel data on rape legislation for 194 states over the 1965 to 2005 time period. The length of punitive sentence proxies for the stringency of rape legislation. The empirical findings demonstrate that longer punitive sentences against rape crimes are associated with a significantly lower probability of intrastate conflict. Sanctions against both female and male perpetrators of rape are analyzed separately. The results show that gender neutrality of law whereby the penal code establishes similar sentences for female and male offenders alike also significantly decreases conflict propensity.

Not in My Back Yard: Public Perceptions and Terrorism:

Why does the public care more about some terrorist attacks than others? In recent years, there has been a wave of terrorist attacks carried out by similar terrorist organizations, but these attacks have produced disparate public responses. Existing research shows that terrorist attacks are more traumatic for people who live near terrorist targets, but this research cannot explain differences in public attitudes about attacks occurring in other countries. We argue that threat perceptions are shaped by the physical and personal proximity of terrorist attacks. The identities of the victims are rarely known. People impute the characteristics of victims based on the country where the attack occurred. These perceived identities determine the empathy people feel toward victims and affect perceptions of terrorist threats. People feel a greater sense of vulnerability when attacks occur near their borders. We test these arguments using a series of online experiments. We find that the location of the attack and the race and nationality of the victims drive threat perceptions.

The big, the bad, and the dangerous: public perceptions and terrorism

Abstract Does coordination affect threat perceptions? The attacks in Paris and Brussels in 2015 and 2016 received a significant amount of attention in the media. The attacks were transnational, fatal, and perpetrated by the same group in western European countries. We argue that these are not the only features of the attacks that matter. The attacks involved coordination among teams of militants. This coordination signals sophistication. Sophistication amplifies threat perceptions independent of group reputation, fatality rate, or target location because sophistication suggests a greater capability to inflict harm. We provide experimental evidence of the relationship between coordination and threat perceptions. Our results contribute to a growing literature looking at the features of terrorist attacks and public perceptions of terrorism, and lay the groundwork for future research on the political and security consequences of coordinated terrorist attacks.