Nazmul Sohel

Increased Childhood Mortality and Arsenic in Drinking Water in Matlab, Bangladesh: A Population-Based Cohort Study

Background Arsenic in drinking water was associated with increased risk of all-cause, cancer, and cardiovascular death in adults. However, the extent to which exposure is related to all-cause and deaths from cancer and cardiovascular condition in young age is unknown. Therefore, we prospectively assessed whether long-term and recent arsenic exposures are associated with all-cause and cancer and cardiovascular mortalities in Bangladeshi childhood population. Methods and Findings We assembled a cohort of 58406 children aged 5–18 years from the Health and Demographic Surveillance System of icddrb in Bangladesh and followed during 2003–2010. There were 185 non-accidental deaths registered in-about 0.4 million person-years of observation. We calculated hazard ratios for cause-specific death in relation to exposure at baseline (µg/L), time-weighted lifetime average (µg/L) and cumulative concentration (µg-years/L). After adjusting covariates, hazard ratios (HRs) for all-cause childhood deaths comparing lifetime average exposure 10–50.0, 50.1–150.0, 150.1–300.0 and ≥300.1µg/L were 1.37 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.74–2.57), 1.44 (95% CI, 0.88–2.38), 1.22 (95% CI, 0.75–1.98) and 1.88 (95% CI, 1.14–3.10) respectively. Significant increased risk was also observed for baseline (P for trend = 0.023) and cumulative exposure categories (P for trend = 0.036). Girls had higher mortality risk compared to boys (HR for girls 1.79, 1.21, 1.64, 2.31; HR for boys 0.52, 0.53, 1.14, 0.99) in relation to baseline exposure. For all cancers and cardiovascular deaths combined, multivariable adjusted HRs amounted to 1.53 (95% CI 0.51–4.57); 1.29 (95% CI 0.43–3.87); 2.18 (95%CI 1.15–4.16) for 10.0–50.0, 50.1–150.0, and ≥150.1, comparing lowest exposure as reference (P for trend = 0.009). Adolescents had higher mortality risk compared to children (HRs = 1.53, 95% CI 1.03–2.28 vs. HRs = 1.30, 95% CI 0.78–2.17). Conclusions Arsenic exposure was associated with substantial increased risk of deaths at young age from all-cause, and cancers and cardiovascular conditions. Girls and adolescents (12–18 years) had higher risk compared to boys and child.

A systematic review of BNP and NT-proBNP in the management of heart failure: overview and methods

B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) and N-terminal proBNP (NT-proBNP) levels are increased in persons with heart failure (HF); low levels of these peptides rule out HF. We systematically reviewed the literature to assess the use of BNP and NT-proBNP in the diagnosis, prognosis, and treatment for HF. We also examined the biological variation of these peptides in persons with and without HF. We searched Medline, Embase, AMED, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, and CINAHL for English-language studies published between January 1989 and June 2012. Supplemental searches involved the gray literature and the reference lists of included studies. Trained reviewers used standardized forms to screen articles for inclusion in the review and to extract data from included papers. We examined the risk of bias with QUADAS-2 for diagnosis studies, the Hayden criteria for prognosis studies, and the Jadad scale for treatment studies. We assessed the strength of evidence in four domains (risk of bias, consistency, directness, and precision) for the diagnosis and treatment studies. Results were reported as narrative syntheses. Additional meta-analyses were conducted for the diagnosis studies. Three hundred ten articles passed through screening and were included in the review. One hundred four articles applied to diagnostic accuracy, 190 papers pertained to prognosis, and nine articles addressed BNP- or NT-proBNP-guided treatment. Each individual paper in this series reports, summarizes, and discusses the evidence regarding diagnosis, prognosis, or treatment.

Performance of BNP and NT-proBNP for diagnosis of heart failure in primary care patients: a systematic review

National and international guidelines have been published recommending the use of natriuretic peptides as an aid to the diagnosis of heart failure (HF) in acute settings; however, few specific recommendations exist for governing the use of these peptides in primary care populations. To summarize the available data relevant to the diagnosis of HF in primary care patient population, we systematically reviewed the literature to identify original articles that investigated the diagnostic accuracy of B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) and N-terminal proBNP (NT-proBNP) in primary care settings. The search yielded 25,864 articles in total: 12 investigating BNP and 20 investigating NT-proBNP were relevant to our objective and included in the review. QUADAS-2 and GRADE were used to assess the quality of the included articles. Diagnostic data were pooled based on three cutpoints: lowest and optimal, as chosen by study authors, and manufacturers’ suggested. The effect of various determinants (e.g., age, gender, BMI, and renal function) on diagnostic performance was also investigated. Pooled sensitivity and specificity of BNP and NT-proBNP using the lowest [0.85 (sensitivity) and 0.54 (specificity)], optimal (0.80 and 0.61), and manufacturers’ (0.74 and 0.67) cutpoints showed good performance for diagnosing HF. Similar performance was seen for NT-proBNP: lowest (0.90 and 0.50), optimal (0.86 and 0.58), and manufacturers’ (0.82 and 0.58) cutpoints. Overall, we rated the strength of evidence as high because further studies will be unlikely to change the estimates diagnostic performance.

Identification of Essential Containers for Aedes Larval Breeding to Control Dengue in Dhaka, Bangladesh

Dengue fever (DF), one of the most important emerging arboviral diseases, is transmitted through the bite of container breeding mosquitoes Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. A household entomological survey was conducted in Dhaka from August through October 2000 to inspect water-holding containers in indoor, outdoor, and rooftop locations for Aedes larvae. The objective of this study was to determine mosquito productivity of each container type and to identify some risk factors of households infested with Aedes larvae. Of 9,222 households inspected, 1,306 (14.2%) were positive for Aedes larvae. Of 38,777 wet containers examined, 2,272 (5.8%) were infested with Aedes larvae. Containers used to hold water, such as earthen jars, tanks, and drums were the most common containers for larval breeding. Tires in outdoor and rooftop locations of the households were also important for larval breeding. Although present in abundance, buckets were of less importance. Factors such as independent household, presence of a water storage system in the house, and fully/partly shaded outdoors were found to be significantly associated with household infestation of Aedes larvae. Identification and subsequent elimination of the most productive containers in a given area may potentially reduce mosquito density to below a level at which dengue transmission may be halted.

Functional disability and social participation restriction associated with chronic conditions in middle-aged and older adults

Background We examine the population impact on functional disability and social participation of physical and mental chronic conditions individually and in combination. Methods Cross-sectional, population-based data from community-dwelling people aged 45 years and over living in the 10 Canadian provinces in 2008–2009 were used to estimate the population attributable risk (PAR) for functional disability in basic (ADL) and instrumental (IADL) activities of daily living and social participation restrictions for individual and combinations of chronic conditions, stratified by age and gender, after adjusting for confounding variables. Results Five chronic conditions (arthritis, depression, diabetes, heart disease and eye disease) made the largest contributions to ADL-related and IADL-related functional disability and social participation restrictions, with variation in magnitude and ranking by age and gender. While arthritis was consistently associated with higher PARs across gender and most age groups, depression, alone and in combination with the physical chronic conditions, was associated with ADL and IADL disability as well as social participation restrictions in the younger age groups, especially among women. Compared to women, the combinations of conditions associated with higher PARs in men more often included heart disease and diabetes. Conclusions Our findings suggest that in community-dwelling middle-aged and older adults, the impact of combinations of mental and physical chronic conditions on functional disability and social participation restriction is substantial and differed by gender and age. Recognising the differences in the drivers of PAR by gender and age group will ultimately increase the efficiency of clinical and public health interventions.

A prospective cohort study of stroke mortality and arsenic in drinking water in Bangladeshi adults

BackgroundArsenic in drinking water causes increased coronary artery disease (CAD) and death from CAD, but its association with stroke is not known.MethodsProspective cohort study with arsenic exposure measured in well water at baseline. 61074 men and women aged 18 years or older on January 2003 were enrolled in 2003. The cohort was actively followed for an average of 7 years (421,754 person-years) through December 2010. Based on arsenic concentration the population was categorized in three groups and stroke mortality HR was compared to the referent. The risk of stroke mortality Hazard Ratio (HR) and 95% Confidence Interval was calculated in relation to arsenic exposure was estimated by Cox proportional hazard models with adjustment for potential confounders.ResultsA total of 1033 people died from stroke during the follow-up period, accounting for 23% of the total deaths. Multivariable adjusted HRs (95% confidence interval) for stroke for well water arsenic concentrations <10, 10-49, and ≥50 μg/L were 1.0 (reference), 1.20 (0.92 to 1.57), and 1.35 (1.04 to 1.75) respectively (Ptrend=0.00058). For men, multivariable adjusted HRs (95%) for well water arsenic concentrations <10, 10-49, and ≥50 μg/L were 1.0 (reference), 1.12 (0.78 to 1.60), and 1.07 (0.75 to 1.51) respectively (Ptrend=0.45) and for women 1.0 (reference),1.31 (0.87 to 1.98), and 1.72 (1.15 to 2.57) respectively (Ptrend=0.00004).ConclusionThe result suggests that arsenic exposure was associated with increased stroke mortality risk in this population, and was more significant in women compared to men.

Statistical approaches to harmonize data on cognitive measures in systematic reviews are rarely reported

OBJECTIVES To identify statistical methods for harmonization, the procedures aimed at achieving the comparability of previously collected data, which could be used in the context of summary data and individual participant data meta-analysis of cognitive measures. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING Environmental scan methods were used to conduct two reviews to identify (1) studies that quantitatively combined data on cognition and (2) general literature on statistical methods for data harmonization. Search results were rapidly screened to identify articles of relevance. RESULTS All 33 meta-analyses combining cognition measures either restricted their analyses to a subset of studies using a common measure or combined standardized effect sizes across studies; none reported their harmonization steps before producing summary effects. In the second scan, three general classes of statistical harmonization models were identified (1) standardization methods, (2) latent variable models, and (3) multiple imputation models; few publications compared methods. CONCLUSION Although it is an implicit part of conducting a meta-analysis or pooled analysis, the methods used to assess inferential equivalence of complex constructs are rarely reported or discussed. Progress in this area will be supported by guidelines for the conduct and reporting of the data harmonization and integration and by evaluating and developing statistical approaches to harmonization.

A dose-response meta-analysis of chronic arsenic exposure and incident cardiovascular disease

Background Consistent evidence at high levels of water arsenic (≥100 µg/l), and growing evidence at low-moderate levels (<100 µg/l), support a link with cardiovascular disease (CVD). The shape of the dose-response across low-moderate and high levels of arsenic in drinking water is uncertain and critical for risk assessment. Methods We conducted a systematic review of general population epidemiological studies of arsenic and incident clinical CVD (all CVD, coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke) with three or more exposure categories. In a dose-response meta-analysis, we estimated the pooled association between log-transformed water arsenic (log-linear) and restricted cubic splines of log-transformed water arsenic (non-linear) and the relative risk of each CVD endpoint. Results Twelve studies (pooled N = 408 945) conducted at high (N = 7) and low-moderate (N = 5) levels of water arsenic met inclusion criteria, and 11 studies were included in the meta-analysis. Compared with 10 µg/l, the estimated pooled relative risks [95% confidence interval (CI)] for 20 µg/l water arsenic, based on a log-linear model, were 1.09 (1.03, 1.14) (N = 2) for CVD incidence, 1.07 (1.01, 1.14) (N = 6) for CVD mortality, 1.11 (1.05, 1.17) (N = 4) for CHD incidence, 1.16 (1.07, 1.26) (N = 6) for CHD mortality, 1.08 (0.99, 1.17) (N = 2) for stroke incidence and 1.06 (0.93, 1.20) (N = 6) for stroke mortality. We found no evidence of non-linearity, although these tests had low statistical power. Conclusions Although limited by the small number of studies, this analysis supports quantitatively including CVD in inorganic arsenic risk assessment, and strengthens the evidence for an association between arsenic and CVD across low-moderate to high levels.

Assessing global risk factors for non-fatal injuries from road traffic accidents and falls in adults aged 35–70 years in 17 countries: a cross-sectional analysis of the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiological (PURE) study

Objectives To assess risk factors associated with non-fatal injuries (NFIs) from road traffic accidents (RTAs) or falls. Methods Our study included 151 609 participants from the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiological study. Participants reported whether they experienced injuries within the past 12 months that limited normal activities. Additional questions elicited data on risk factors. We employed multivariable logistic regression to analyse data. Results Overall, 5979 participants (3.9% of 151 609) reported at least one NFI. Total number of NFIs was 6300: 1428 were caused by RTAs (22.7%), 1948 by falls (30.9%) and 2924 by other causes (46.4%). Married/common law status was associated with fewer falls, but not with RTA. Age 65–70 years was associated with fewer RTAs, but more falls; age 55–64 years was associated with more falls. Male versus female was associated with more RTAs and fewer falls. In lower-middle-income countries, rural residence was associated with more RTAs and falls; in low-income countries, rural residence was associated with fewer RTAs. Previous alcohol use was associated with more RTAs and falls; current alcohol use was associated with more falls. Education was not associated with either NFI type. Conclusions This study of persons aged 35–70 years found that some risk factors for NFI differ according to whether the injury is related to RTA or falls. Policymakers may use these differences to guide the design of prevention policies for RTA-related or fall-related NFI.

Comparison of Standardization Methods for the Harmonization of Phenotype Data: An Application to Cognitive Measures

Standardization procedures are commonly used to combine phenotype data that were measured using different instruments, but there is little information on how the choice of standardization method influences pooled estimates and heterogeneity. Heterogeneity is of key importance in meta-analyses of observational studies because it affects the statistical models used and the decision of whether or not it is appropriate to calculate a pooled estimate of effect. Using 2-stage individual participant data analyses, we compared 2 common methods of standardization, T-scores and category-centered scores, to create combinable memory scores using cross-sectional data from 3 Canadian population-based studies (the Canadian Study on Health and Aging (1991-1992), the Canadian Community Health Survey on Healthy Aging (2008-2009), and the Quebec Longitudinal Study on Nutrition and Aging (2004-2005)). A simulation was then conducted to assess the influence of varying the following items across population-based studies: 1) effect size, 2) distribution of confounders, and 3) the relationship between confounders and the outcome. We found that pooled estimates based on the unadjusted category-centered scores tended to be larger than those based on the T-scores, although the differences were negligible when adjusted scores were used, and that most individual participant data meta-analyses identified significant heterogeneity. The results of the simulation suggested that in terms of heterogeneity, the method of standardization played a smaller role than did different effect sizes across populations and differential confounding of the outcome measure across studies. Although there was general consistency between the 2 types of standardization methods, the simulations identified a number of sources of heterogeneity, some of which are not the usual sources considered by researchers.