Ndiame Diop

Trade Costs, Export Development, and Poverty in Rwanda

For Rwanda, one of the poorest countries in the world, trade offers the most effective route for substantial poverty reduction. But the poor in Rwanda, most of whom are subsistence farmers in rural areas, are currently disconnected from markets and commercial activities by extremely high transport costs and by severe constraints on their ability to shift out of subsistence farming. The constraints include lack of access to credit and lack of access to information on the skills and techniques required to produce commercial crops. The paper is based on information from the household survey and a recent diagnostic study of constraints to trade in Rwanda. It provides a number of indicative simulations that show the potential for substantial reductions in poverty from initiatives that reduce trade costs, enhance the quality of exportable goods, and facilitate movement out of subsistence into commercial activities.

Trade Reforms, Farm Productivity, and Poverty in Bangladesh

This paper analyzes the distributional impacts of trade reforms in rural areas of Bangladesh. The liberalization of trade in irrigation equipment and fertilizer markets during the early 1990s has led to structural changes in the agricultural sector and a significant increase in rice productivity. A resulting increase in output has been associated with a decline in producer and consumer rice prices of approximately 25 percent. Using a combination of ex-post and ex-ante approaches, the authors investigate the implications of the changes in rice productivity and prices for the welfare of households. They find that the net effects of increased rice productivity and lower rice prices have benefited the poor. Regardless of the particular category analyzed, the poorest households emerged as being particularly positively affected by reforms in the 1990s. This mainly reflects the fact that they are predominantly net rice buyers in both urban and rural markets. In contrast, large net sellers of rice, among the better-off households in the rural areas, were the main losers. Since net buyers in rural areas tend to be poorer than net sellers, trade liberalization has benefited the poor. Although the authors are not able to test empirically what has happened to the welfare level of agricultural wage earners, secondary evidence suggests that they have gained from trade liberalization.

The economy-wide effects of further trade reforms in Tunisia's services sectors

The purpose of this paper is to benchmark Tunisia against other emerging economies in terms of the regulatory barriers affecting particular services sectors, and to assess the economy-wide effects of further liberalizing these services trade restrictions, compared with reducing the dispersion in barriers to its merchandise trade. On the basis of a rather restricted sample of services sectors, partial regulatory reform would yield gains roughly equivalent to full unilateral reform of manufacturing tariffs, but roughly one-tenth the gains from full bilateral reform of border protection in agriculture with the European Union. The adjustment costs associated with these services trade reforms would be minimal. The paper identifies the reasons why the gains from these services reforms are relatively small, and argues that a wider set of reforms could provide win-win outcomes and even fewer adjustment costs. By contrast, the gains in agriculture and manufacturing tend to come at the expense of domestic output in the reforming sectors -- the gains are greater, but so too are the adjustment costs.

Tunisia's global integration : a second generation of reforms to boost growth and employment

This study on a world integration for Tunisia attempts to contribute to the achievement of the growth of the 11th development plan. It first takes stock of past integration policies, outlining policies implemented and assessing their impact on foreign direct investments (FDI), exports and employment. Then, it examines the current challenges of integration of Tunisia, which is both global and multisectoral pursuant to the actual creation of a free trade area with Europe for industrial products in January 2008. In the light of challenges expected, another generation of integration reform is identified to further improve the positioning of a competitive Tunisia and realize the potential growth in services. The report contains four chapters. Chapter one analyzes integration policies implemented since the early 70s and evaluates the impact thereof on the FDI, exports and employment. Chapter two examines the current challenges and major reforms necessary to correct the side-effects of past integration policies. Chapter three attempts to identify the reforms necessary to improve quality and lower prices of services. Finally, chapter four examines the prospects for export of professional services (accounting, auditing, legal services) and health by Tunisia, which showed a real capacity to compete in these areas in recent years.

Chapter 4 The Economy-Wide Effects of Further Trade Reforms in Tunisia's Services Sectors

The purpose of this chapter is to benchmark Tunisia against other emerging economies in terms of the regulatory barriers affecting particular services sectors and to assess the economy-wide effects of further liberalizing these services trade restrictions, compared with reducing the dispersion in barriers to its merchandise trade. On the basis of a rather restricted sample of services sectors, partial regulatory reform would yield gains roughly equivalent to full unilateral reform of manufacturing tariffs, but roughly one-tenth the gains from full bilateral reform of border protection in agriculture with the European Union. The adjustment costs associated with these services trade reforms would be minimal. The chapter identifies the reasons why the gains from these services reforms are relatively small and argues that a wider set of reforms could provide win-win outcomes and even fewer adjustment costs. By contrast, the gains in agriculture and manufacturing tend to come at the expense of domestic output in the reforming sectors – the gains are greater, but so too are the adjustment costs.

The Dynamic Effects of Countercyclical Fiscal Stimulus On Output in Tunisia

With the global financial crisis hitting many countries, policymakers around the world have been weighing different countercyclical policies to support aggregate demand and restore growth. The analysis in this paper estimates a Structural Vector Error Correction model for Tunisia in order to identify the impact of fiscal policy shocks on real output. The authors find that public investment has a small impact on output in the short run but is an important medium-term growth-enhancing countercyclical instrument that has a robust impact on growth. Raising public investment by 1 dinar yields 0.12 dinar the first year, 0.30 dinar the second year, half a dinar the third year, and 1.08 dinars the sixth year. An increase in recurrent expenditure has a smaller but positive and persistent impact on real output. For Tunisia to obtain a larger short-term impact of public spending on output, procurement processes should be made faster and simpler. Finally, the analysis finds a countercyclical pattern of real public investment vis-a-vis real output and a relative rigidity/inelasticity of recurrent expenditures to output fluctuations.

Integration mondiale de la Tunisie : une nouvelle generation de reformes pour booster la croissance et l'emploi

This study on a world integration for Tunisia attempts to contribute to the achievement of the growth of the 11th development plan. It first takes stock of past integration policies, outlining policies implemented and assessing their impact on foreign direct investments (FDI), exports and employment. Then, it examines the current challenges of integration of Tunisia, which is both global and multisectoral pursuant to the actual creation of a free trade area with Europe for industrial products in January 2008. In the light of challenges expected, another generation of integration reform is identified to further improve the positioning of a competitive Tunisia and realize the potential growth in services. The report contains four chapters. Chapter one analyzes integration policies implemented since the early 70s and evaluates the impact thereof on the FDI, exports and employment. Chapter two examines the current challenges and major reforms necessary to correct the side-effects of past integration policies. Chapter three attempts to identify the reforms necessary to improve quality and lower prices of services. Finally, chapter four examines the prospects for export of professional services (accounting, auditing, legal services) and health by Tunisia, which showed a real capacity to compete in these areas in recent years.