Neal W. Jorgensen

Clinical implications of benign multiple sclerosis: A 20-year population-based follow-up study

In 2001, we followed up all patients from the 1991 Olmsted County Multiple Sclerosis (MS) prevalence cohort. We found that the longer the duration of MS and the lower the disability, the more likely a patient is to remain stable and not progress. This is particularly powerful for patients with benign MS with Expanded Disability Status Scale score of 2 or lower for 10 years or longer who have a greater than 90% chance of remaining stable. This is important because these patients represent 17% of the entire prevalence cohort. These data should assist in the shared therapeutic decision‐making process of whether to start immunomodulatory medications. Ann Neurol 2004;56:303–306

Incidence and prevalence of multiple sclerosis in Olmsted County, Minnesota, 1985–2000

Background: Epidemiologic data for multiple sclerosis (MS) in Olmsted County, MN, have been recorded for almost 100 years and have indicated that the increasing prevalence rate was likely due in part to an increasing incidence rate. Methods: All cases of MS diagnosed from 1985 to 2000 were identified using the centralized diagnostic index at the Mayo Clinic and the Rochester Epidemiology Program Project, a shared database of all medical practitioners in the county. Patients were required to have established residency at least 1 year prior to diagnosis of MS. Results were also age- and sex-adjusted to control for shifts in the population structure. Results: The raw prevalence of MS was determined to be 177 per 100,000 on December 1, 2000, and the raw incidence rate was 7.5 per 100,000 person-years at risk from 1985 to 2000. Conclusions: After age and sex adjustment to a common population, these prevalence and incidence rates of MS appear to have been stable rather than increasing over the past 20 years.

Change in MS-related disability in a population-based cohort A 10-year follow-up study

Objectives: To study the change in disability over 10 years in individual patients constituting the 1991 Olmsted County, MN, multiple sclerosis (MS) prevalence cohort. Methods: The authors reassessed this 1991 cohort in 2001. The authors determined the Expanded Disability Status Scale scores (EDSS) for each patient still alive, and within the year prior to death for those who died. The authors analyzed determinants of potential prognostic significance on change in disability. Results: Follow-up information was available for 161 of 162 patients in the 1991 cohort. Only 15% had received immunomodulatory therapy. The mean change in EDSS for the entire cohort over 10 years was 1 point and 20% worsened by ≥2 points. For patients with EDSS <3 in 1991 (n = 66), 83% were ambulatory without a cane 10 years later. For patients with EDSS of 3 through 5 in 1991 (n = 33), 51% required a cane to ambulate (48%) or worse (3%). For patients with EDSS 6 to 7 in 1991 (n = 39), 51% required a wheelchair or worse in 2001. Gait impairment at onset, progressive disease, or longer duration of disease were associated with more worsening of disability (p < 0.002). The 10-year survival was decreased compared with the Minnesota white population for both men and women. Conclusions: Although survival was reduced and 30% of patients progressed to needing a cane or wheelchair or worse over the 10-year follow-up period, most remained stable or minimally progressed. Patients within the EDSS 3.0 through 5.0 range are at moderate risk of developing important gait limitations over the 10-year period. The authors did not identify factors strongly predictive of worsening disability in this study.

Disability profile of MS did not change over 10 years in a population-based prevalence cohort

Objective: To assess whether the level of multiple sclerosis (MS) -related disability in the Olmsted County population has changed over a decade, and to evaluate how the rate of initial progression to moderate disability impacts further disability. Methods: The Minimal Record of Disability (MRD) measured impairment, disability, and handicap for the 2000 (n = 201) prevalence cohort. The authors compared these results with the 1991 (n = 162) cohort; 115 patients were in both cohorts. The authors assessed retrospectively intervals at which Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) scores of 3 (moderate disability), 6 (cane), and 8 (wheelchair) were reached. Results: The distribution of the 2000 EDSS and MRD scores were not significantly different from the 1991 distribution. The median time from MS diagnosis, for the entire cohort, to EDSS scores of 3 and 6 was 17 and 24 years, respectively. At 20 years after onset, only 25% of those with relapsing-remitting MS had EDSS scores ≥3. The median time from diagnosis to EDSS score of 6 for the secondary and primary progressive groups was 10 and 3 years, respectively. Rate of progression from onset or diagnosis to EDSS score of 3 did not affect the rate of further disease progression. However, once an EDSS score of 3 was reached, progression of disability was more likely, and rate of progression increased. Conclusions: The distribution of multiple sclerosis disability in the Olmsted community has remained stable for 10 years. Progression of disability for patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis or secondary progressive multiple sclerosis may be more favorable than reported previously. Once a clinical threshold of disability is reached, rate of progression increased.

Population-Based Study of Symptomatic Internal Carotid Artery Occlusion: Incidence and Long-Term Follow-Up

Background and Purpose— Internal carotid artery (ICA) occlusion is an important cause of transient ischemic attack (TIA) and cerebral infarction. There are no previous population-based natural history studies evaluating outcome after symptomatic ICA occlusion (SICAO). Methods— We performed a retrospective, population-based study of SICAO. All Olmsted County (Minnesota) residents with possible SICAO from 1986 to 2000 were identified by cross-referencing appropriate clinical and imaging codes. Inclusion criteria were cerebral infarction or TIA in a carotid distribution and imaging documentation of ipsilateral ICA occlusion <3 months after the index event. Kaplan–Meier estimates were used to calculate the risk of cerebral infarction, myocardial infarction, and death after SICAO. Results— Seventy-five patients qualified. Annual SICAO incidence was 6 per 100 000 persons (age and gender adjusted to the 2000 US white population). Risk of cerebral infarction during follow-up was 8% at 30 days, 10% at 1 year, and 14% at 5 years. Five of 11 cerebral infarctions occurred within the first week after diagnosis of occlusion. Risk of myocardial infarction was 0% at 30 days, 8% at 1 year, and 24% at 5 years. Risk of death was 7%, 13%, and 29%, respectively. Conclusions— There may be 15 000 to 20 000 incident cases of SICAO in the United States annually. Risk of cerebral infarction after SICAO is initially high and then stabilizes, whereas risk of myocardial infarction is initially low but gradually increases. Better strategies are needed to reduce early stroke recurrence in this setting.

Use of coronary artery calcium testing to improve coronary heart disease risk assessment in a lung cancer screening population: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA)

BACKGROUND Assessment of coronary artery calcium (CAC) during lung cancer screening chest computed tomography (CT) represents an opportunity to identify asymptomatic individuals at increased coronary heart disease (CHD) risk. We determined the improvement in CHD risk prediction associated with the addition of CAC testing in a population recommended for lung cancer screening. METHODS We included 484 out of 6814 Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) participants without baseline cardiovascular disease who met U.S. Preventive Service Task Force CT lung cancer screening criteria and underwent gated CAC testing. 10 year-predicted CHD risks with and without CAC were calculated using a validated MESA-based risk model and categorized into low (<5%), intermediate (5%-10%), and high (≥10%). The net reclassification improvement (NRI) and change in Harrells C-statistic by adding CAC to the risk model were subsequently determined. RESULTS Of 484 included participants (mean age = 65; 39% women; 32% black), 72 (15%) experienced CHD events over the course of follow-up (median = 12.5 years). Adding CAC to the MESA CHD risk model resulted in 17% more participants classified into the highest or lowest risk categories and a NRI of 0.26 (p = 0.001). The C-statistic improved from 0.538 to 0.611 (p = 0.01). CONCLUSIONS CHD event rates were high in this lung cancer screening eligible population. These individuals represent a high-risk population who merit consideration for CHD prevention measures regardless of CAC score. Although overall discrimination remained poor with inclusion of CAC scores, determining whether those reclassified to an even higher risk would benefit from more aggressive preventive measures may be important.

Editor's choice: Association of Functional Polymorphism rs2231142 (Q141K) in the ABCG2 Gene With Serum Uric Acid and Gout in 4 US Populations: The PAGE Study

A loss-of-function mutation (Q141K, rs2231142) in the ATP-binding cassette, subfamily G, member 2 gene (ABCG2) has been shown to be associated with serum uric acid levels and gout in Asians, Europeans, and European and African Americans; however, less is known about these associations in other populations. Rs2231142 was genotyped in 22,734 European Americans, 9,720 African Americans, 3,849 Mexican Americans, and 3,550 American Indians in the Population Architecture using Genomics and Epidemiology (PAGE) Study (2008-2012). Rs2231142 was significantly associated with serum uric acid levels (P = 2.37 × 10(-67), P = 3.98 × 10(-5), P = 6.97 × 10(-9), and P = 5.33 × 10(-4) in European Americans, African Americans, Mexican Americans, and American Indians, respectively) and gout (P = 2.83 × 10(-10), P = 0.01, and P = 0.01 in European Americans, African Americans, and Mexican Americans, respectively). Overall, the T allele was associated with a 0.24-mg/dL increase in serum uric acid level (P = 1.37 × 10(-80)) and a 1.75-fold increase in the odds of gout (P = 1.09 × 10(-12)). The association between rs2231142 and serum uric acid was significantly stronger in men, postmenopausal women, and hormone therapy users compared with their counterparts. The association with gout was also significantly stronger in men than in women. These results highlight a possible role of sex hormones in the regulation of ABCG2 urate transporter and its potential implications for the prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of hyperuricemia and gout.