Nedka Ivanova

Macroeconomic Impacts on Bulgarian Agriculture during Transition

An unstable and erratic macroeconomy in an economy in transition might be expected to affect agricultural performance. This is tested for Bulgaria between 1992 and 1997 using impulse response functions from a vector autoregressive (VAR) model. Despite data limitations, it is found that shocks to the foreign exchange rate and interest rate feed into farm prices and agricultural exports but equilibrium will be re–established within 5 years. Agricultural policies may not be sufficient to counteract the wider macroeconomic forces.

Bulgarian Agriculture and EU Accession

This article analyses markets, income and agricultural policy changes in Bulgaria after its accession to the EU. A country AG-MEMOD model, consisting of 18 commodities organised in four sub-models (crops, livestock, milk & dairy and a link between crops and livestock) is applied. The model is an econometric, dynamic, partial-equilibrium and multi-product one. In order to examine the policy environment in Bulgaria, two scenarios are designed: baseline or non-accession (N-Ac) and accession (Ac). The accession scenario should have a very positive effect on the crop sector in Bulgaria, whereas the effect is the opposite on the livestock sector. The most remarkable results come from the milk sector. The effect on income is also positive, despite the pessimistic macroeconomic projections.

Measuring the Effects of Government Transfers from Agriculture in Bulgaria: Calculation of Producer Subsidy Equivalents

Abstract Substantial changes in Bulgarian agricultural policy occurred during the period 1990–92. Most pre‐reform instruments of policy were removed and government expenditure data show the cut in total support. Results of PSE analysis are generally negative, which shows that producers were taxed during the period. This is an unusual result in comparison with results for other countries published by the OECD. The gap between domestic and world prices in Bulgaria remained large and the most significant component of the transfer from agriculture was negative market price support brought about by managed exchange rates and trade regimes. Over the three post‐reform years, however, the taxation of agriculture has declined. This is partly due to falling agricultural output itself consequent on the taxation.

Climate Changes and Its Impact on Agriculture – The Case Study of Bulgaria

The Republic of Bulgaria is situated on the eastern Balkan Peninsula with Black See on the east, Turkey and Greece on the south, Macedonia and Serbia on the west and the Danube River and Romania on the north. Bulgaria spreads on a territory of 111 thousand sq. km. with 6 NUTS2 administrative regions (Figure 1): North West Region (NWR) with 5 major towns (Vidin, Vratza, Lovech, Montana and Pleven); North Central Region (NCR) with 5 major towns (Veliko Tarnovo, Gabrovo, Razgrad, Ruse and Silistra); North East Region (NER) with 4 major towns (Varna, Dobrich, Targoviste and Shumen); South East Region (SER) with 4 major towns (Burgas, Sliven, Jambol and Stara Zagora); South Central Region (SCR) with 5 major towns (Kardgali, Pazardgik, Plovdiv, Smoljan and Haskovo) and South West Region (SWR) with 5 administrative centres (Blagoevgrad, Kjustendil, Pernik, Sofiatown and Sofia-district).