Neil Dhoul

A study of cardiovascular risk in overweight and obese people in England

Objectives: To report current levels of obesity and associated cardiac risk using routinely collected primary care computer data. Methods: 67 practices took part in an educational intervention to improve computer data quality and care in cardiovascular disease. Data were extracted from 435 102 general practice computer records. 64.3% (229 108/362 861) of people age 15 y and older had a body mass index (BMI) recording or a valid height and weight record that enabled BMI to be derived. Data about cardiovascular disease and risk factors were also extracted. The prevalence of disease and the control of risk factors in the overweight and obese population were compared with those of normal body weight. Results: 56.8% of men and 69.3% of women aged over 15 y had a BMI record. 22% of men and 32.3% of women aged 15 to 24 y were overweight or obese; rising each decade to a peak of 65.6% of men and 57.5% of women aged 55 to 64 y. Thereafter, the proportion who were overweight or obese declined. The prevalence of ischaemic heart disease, diabetes mellitus and hypertension rose with increasing levels of obesity; their prevalence in those who are moderately obese was between two and three times that of the general population. Systolic and diastolic blood pressure, blood glucose even in non-diabetics, cholesterol and triglycerides were all elevated in the overweight and obese population. Conclusion: Based on the recorded data over half of men and nearly half of women are overweight or obese. They have increased cardiovascular risk, which is not adequately controlled by current practice.

Quality achievement and disease prevalence in primary care predicts regional variation in renal replacement therapy (RRT) incidence: an ecological study

BACKGROUND Diabetes Meillitus (DM) and hypertension (HT) are important causes of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) and renal replacement therapy (RRT) is the standard active treatment. Financially, incentivized quality initiatives for primary care include pay-for-performance (P4P) in DM and HT. Our aim was to examine any effect of disease prevalence and P4P on RRT incidence and regional variation. METHODS The incidence of RRT, sex and ethnicity data and P4P disease register and achievement data were obtained for each NHS locality. We calculated correlation coefficients for P4P indicators since 2004/05 and socio-demographic data for these 152 localities. We then developed a regression model and regression coefficient (R(2)) to assess to what extent these variables might predict RRT incidence. RESULTS Many of the P4P indicators were weakly but highly significantly correlated with RRT incidence. The strongest correlation was 2004/05 for DM prevalence and 2006/07 for HT quality. DM prevalence and the percentage with blood pressure control in HT target (HT quality) were the most predictive in our regression model R(2) = 0.096 and R(2) = 0.085, respectively (P < 0.001). Combined they predicted a fifth of RRT incidence (R(2) = 0.2, P < 0.001) while ethnicity and deprivation a quarter (R(2) = 0.25, P < 0.001). Our final model contained proportion of population >75 years, DM prevalence, HT quality, ethnicity and deprivation index and predicted 40% of variation (R(2) = 0.4, P < 0.001). CONCLUSION Our findings add prevalence of DM and quality of HT management to the known predictors of variation in RRT, ethnicity and deprivation. They raise the possibility that interventions in primary care might influence later events in specialist care.