Neil Ericksen

The Implications of Climate Change on Floods of the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna Rivers in Bangladesh

Climate change in the future would have implications for river discharges in Bangladesh. In this article, possible changes in the magnitude, extent and depth of floods of the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna (GBM) rivers in Bangladesh were assessed using a sequence of empirical models and the MIKE11-GIS hydrodynamic model. Climate change scenarios were constructed from the results of four General Circulation Models (GCMs) –CSIRO9, UKTR, GFDL and LLNL, which demonstrate a range of uncertainties. Changes in magnitude, depth and extent of flood discharge vary considerably between the GCMs. Future changes in the peak discharge of the Ganges River are expected to be higher than those for the Brahmaputra River. Peak discharge of the Meghna River may also increase considerably. As a result, significant changes in the spatial extent and depths of inundation in Bangladesh may occur. Faster changes in inundation are expected at low temperature increases than of higher temperature changes. Changes in land inundation categories may introduce substantial changes in rice agriculture and cropping patterns in Bangladesh. Reduction of increased flood hazard due to climate change requires strengthening of flood management policies and adaptation measures in Bangladesh.

Trends and persistence in precipitation in the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna river basins

Abstract The Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna (GBM) river basins occupy about 1.75 x 106 km2 of the Himalayan region. More than half a billion people in Nepal, India, Bhutan and Bangladesh are directly or indirectly dependent on the water resources of the GBM rivers. These river basins are characterized by diversified climatic patterns. Analyses of trends and persistence in precipitation over these river basins are necessary for sound water resources planning. Time series of annual precipitation for each of the 16 meteorological subdivisions covering the three river basins were examined for trends using the Mann-Kendall rank statistic, Students t-test and regression analysis, and for persistence using first order autocorrelation analysis. Results indicate that precipitation in the Ganges basin is by-and-large stable. Precipitation in one subdivision in the Brahmaputra bassin shows a decreasing trend and another shows an increasing trend. One of the three subdivisions in the Meghna basin shows a decreasing ...

Are floods getting worse in the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna basins?

The Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna/Barak rivers are lifelines for millions of people in South Asia in Nepal, India, Bhutan and Bangladesh. They supply water for food and fibre production and for industrial and domestic purposes. They are also sources of disastrous floods that cause substantial damage to agriculture and infrastructure in these countries. There are claims that flood discharges, areal extent, and damage-costs are getting worse in the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna/Barak basins. The validity of these claims was examined by applying four different statistical tests to the peak discharge time series and flooded areas. The results indicate that no conclusive changes have occurred over the last few decades. Reports of increased flood damage may be due to a combination of other factors, such as improved damage assessment techniques, and the expansion and intensification of settlement in flood-prone areas, but this was not tested in this paper and should be top priority for future research.

Evaluating the outcomes of plans: theory, practice, and methodology

Despite calls for performance-oriented and evidence-based planning, the outcomes of land use and environmental plans are rarely monitored or assessed ex post facto (that is, post implementation). As a result, planners cannot know whether or why plans achieve their goals, or learn from the results of past interventions to improve planning practice. This evaluation gap is caused by a lack of methodology to evaluate the outcomes of plans and the difficulty of attributing changes to planning activities. We address this gap by proposing and testing a plan-outcome evaluation (POE) methodology. We demonstrate its broad applicability and usefulness in the context of local plans in New Zealand. The POE methodology will be useful to practitioners and academics seeking to assess the outcomes of plans in countries with western planning traditions.

Do Cooperative Environmental Planning Mandates Produce Good Plans? Empirical Results from the New Zealand Experience

Cooperative mandates represent new thinking about intergovernmental relationships and a shift from the top-down coercive approach. This research presents evidence on how a cooperative national environmental management mandate influences the quality of regional and district plans in New Zealand. Findings indicate that cooperative planning mandates such as New Zealands Resource Management Act are difficult to translate into practice. The quality of regional and district plans was unimpressive. Empirical modelling shows that clear legislative provisions, the information dissemination strategies of central government, and subnational organisational capacity had an important impact on regional and district plan quality. Alternatively, the organisational capacity and plans of regional councils have little influence on the capacity and plans of district councils. These findings suggest that, though clear mandates are effective, more attention needs to be given to building subnational organisational capacity and to improving the information provision efforts of central government. More attention also needs to be directed to facilitating collaboration between regional and district councils.

Coercive and Cooperative Intergovernmental Mandates: A Comparative Analysis of Florida and New Zealand Environmental Plans

Through analysis of two sets of regional plans prepared under cooperative and coercive intergovernmental mandates in Florida and New Zealand, this study examines variation in mandate design features and their influence on plan quality. New Zealands cooperative mandate has greater flexibility and permits more discretionary action to regional councils, while Floridas coercive mandate emphasizes technical capacity building, strong but limited use of coercion and financial support. Key policy implications of this study concern the design of regulatory mandates, and how the two approaches can learn from one another. Floridas approach leads to stronger plan fact basis and regulatory policies in plans, but could benefit from New Zealands key mandate strength of building subnational political commitment to advance plan-making. New Zealands approach leads to strong goals, but lacks strengths of specificity in setting goals, technical capacity building, selected use of strong coercion and funding which are emphasized in Floridas mandate. Thus mandates that lead to high quality regional plans would represent a combination of the two approaches.

Impact of water control projects on fisheries resources in Bangladesh

Bangladesh is a very flat delta built up by the Ganges—Brahmaputra—Meghna/Barak river systems. Because of its geographical location, floods cause huge destruction of lives and properties almost every year. Water control programs have been undertaken to enhance development through mitigating the threat of disasters. This structural approach to flood hazard has severely affected floodplain fisheries that supply the major share of protein to rural Bangladesh, as exemplified by the Chandpur Irrigation Project. Although the regulated environment of the Chandpur project has become favorable for closed-water cultured fish farming, the natural open-water fishery loss has been substantial. Results from research show that fish yields were better under preproject conditions. Under project conditions per capita fish consumption has dropped significantly, and the price of fish has risen beyond the means of the poor people, so that fish protein in the diet of poor people is gradually declining. Bangladesh is planning to expand water control facilities to the remaining flood-prone areas in the next 15–20 years. This will cause further loss of floodplain fisheries. If prices for closed-water fish remain beyond the buying power of the poor, alternative sources of cheap protein will be required.

Plan-making for sustainability : the New Zealand experience

Contents: Introduction: from Rio to RMA: great expectations. Part I: Approaches to Planning and Governance: Planning mandates: from theory to practice Making plans: from theory to practice. Part II: Intergovernmental Planning in New Zealand: Central government: walking the talk Regional government: a non-partner MAGBPori interests: elusive partnership. Part III: Plan Quality and Capability Under the RMA: Regional councils: lightweight policy statements and limited capability District councils: mixed results in planning and capability Influencing factors: linking mandates, councils, capability and quality. Part IV: Local Case Studies: Far North District: resisting innovation Queenstown Lakes District: development meets environment Tauranga District: policy coherence on the coast Tasman District: political populism Conclusion: a decade on: unfulfilled expectations. Appendices: Key provisions of the RMA affecting local government functions Methodology Plan coding protocol References cited Index.

Integrated Model Systems for National Assessments of the Effects of Climate Change: Applications in New Zealand and Bangladesh

To examine the sensitivity of environmental systems to climatic variability and change, integrated model systems for climate impact assessment are being developed for New Zealand (CLIMPACTS) and Bangladesh (BDCLIM). Features common to both model systems include a global climate model, regional modules for generating climate scenarios, and models for biophysical impact analyses. For CLIMPACTS, modified ecosystem models for horticultural crops, arable crops, and pasture production are being incorporated. For BDCLIM, the emphasis is on analysis of possible changes in agroclimatic zones and hydrology, including the risks of floods and droughts. The initial emphasis of both systems is on nationwide spatial analyses, using simplified models as much as possible. The development of integrated model systems supports the needs of the respective countries in assessing scientific uncertainties, evaluating vulnerabilities, and identifying adaptation options as a basis for international reporting requirements under the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change and for policy and planning at national and regional levels. The major advantage of such integrated model systems is that they can readily be updated as the science of climate change advances, thus providing an evolving tool for future reassessments of climate impacts.