Neil McRoberts

Coupling Spore Traps and Quantitative PCR Assays for Detection of the Downy Mildew Pathogens of Spinach (Peronospora effusa) and Beet (P. schachtii)

Downy mildew of spinach (Spinacia oleracea), caused by Peronospora effusa, is a production constraint on production worldwide, including in California, where the majority of U.S. spinach is grown. The aim of this study was to develop a real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) assay for detection of airborne inoculum of P. effusa in California. Among oomycete ribosomal DNA (rDNA) sequences examined for assay development, the highest nucleotide sequence identity was observed between rDNA sequences of P. effusa and P. schachtii, the cause of downy mildew on sugar beet and Swiss chard in the leaf beet group (Beta vulgaris subsp. vulgaris). Single-nucleotide polymorphisms were detected between P. effusa and P. schachtii in the 18S rDNA regions for design of P. effusa- and P. schachtii-specific TaqMan probes and reverse primers. An allele-specific probe and primer amplification method was applied to determine the frequency of both P. effusa and P. schachtii rDNA target sequences in pooled DNA samples, enabling quantification of rDNA of P. effusa from impaction spore trap samples collected from spinach production fields. The rDNA copy numbers of P. effusa were, on average, ≈3,300-fold higher from trap samples collected near an infected field compared with those levels recorded at a site without a nearby spinach field. In combination with disease-conducive weather forecasting, application of the assays may be helpful to time fungicide applications for disease management.

Management of Botrytis Leaf Blight of Onion: The Québec Experience of 20 Years of Continual Improvement

Botrytis leaf blight (BLB) of onion (Allium cepa) is caused by Botrytis squamosa. The disease has been reported on onion crops in several of the onion production areas of the world including North and South America, Europe, Asia, and Australia, although it is not a problem in arid production regions such as the western United States. In eastern Canada, the disease is generally present every year and is especially severe on cultivars of yellow globe onion. The pathogen biology and disease epidemiology have been intensively researched. Over the last few decades, in the organic soil area of Quebec, extensive research effort has been devoted to the development and evaluation of predictive models and disease management strategies. There has been an active integrated pest management program for onions since the early 1980s, and scouting for disease has played a major role in disease management. In this article, the story of BLB management in eastern Canada over a period of two decades is summarized.

Considerations of scale in the analysis of spatial pattern of plant disease epidemics.

Scale is an important but somewhat neglected subject in plant pathology. Scale serves as an abstract concept, providing a framework for organizing observations and theoretical models, and plays a functional role in the organization of ecological communities and physical processes. Rich methodological resources are available to plant pathologists interested in considering either or both aspects of scale in their research. We summarize important concepts in both areas of the literature, particularly as they apply to the spatial pattern of plant disease, and highlight some new results that emphasize the importance of scaling on the emergence of different types of probability distribution in empirical observation. We also highlight the important links between heterogeneity and scale, which are of central importance in plant disease epidemiology and the analysis of spatial pattern. We consider statistical approaches that are available, where actual physical scale is known, and for more conceptual research on hierarchies, where scale plays a more abstract role, particularly for field-based research. For the latter, we highlight methods that plant pathologists could consider to account for the effect of scale in the design of field studies.

The structure of diagnostic information

Diagnosis is characterized as an exercise in classification, where the task is to assign a crop to a risk group as a basis for evidence-based crop protection decision making. Underlying the process of diagnostic decision making is Bayesian updating of probabilities. Alongside updating of probabilities, assessments of diagnostic information allow further description of the characteristics of diagnostic tests, and of the predictions made on the basis of test outcomes. This is illustrated analytically, graphically (by means of iso-information contour plots and information graphs) and by discussion of example epidemiological scenarios.

Economic issues to consider for gene drives

ABSTRACTWe examine four economic issues regarding gene drive applications made possible by gene editing technologies. First, whether gene drives are self-sustaining or self-limiting will largely determine which types of organizations have incentives to develop and deploy gene drives and greatly influence their governance and regulation. Social factors will also play key roles, particularly public perceptions, with these perceptions co-determined with regulation and governance. Second, gene drive applications will generate unintended negative social impacts that will partially offset benefits. Third, economic surplus, the traditional measure of economic benefits, incompletely captures the welfare impacts of gene drive applications. Fourth, gene drives imply dynamic nonlinearities that make identifying economic equilibria and general policy recommendations challenging. The potentially substantial benefits, coupled with the technical, social, and economic uncertainties surrounding gene drives, suggest that a...

Season-Long Dynamics of Spinach Downy Mildew Determined by Spore Trapping and Disease Incidence

Peronospora effusa is an obligate oomycete that causes downy mildew of spinach. Downy mildew threatens sustainable production of fresh market organic spinach in California, and routine fungicide sprays are often necessary for conventional production. In this study, airborne P. effusa spores were collected using rotating arm impaction spore trap samplers at four sites in the Salinas Valley between late January and early June in 2013 and 2014. Levels of P. effusa DNA were determined by a species-specific quantitative polymerase chain reaction assay. Peronospora effusa was detected prior to and during the growing season in both years. Nonlinear time series analyses on the data suggested that the within-season dynamics of P. effusa airborne inoculum are characterized by a mixture of chaotic, deterministic, and stochastic features, with successive data points somewhat predictable from the previous values in the series. Analyses of concentrations of airborne P. effusa suggest both an exponential increase in concentration over the course of the season and oscillations around the increasing average value that had season-specific periodicity around 30, 45, and 75 days, values that are close to whole multiples of the combined pathogen latent and infectious periods. Each unit increase in temperature was correlated with 1.7 to 6% increased odds of an increase in DNA copy numbers, while each unit decrease in wind speed was correlated with 4 to 12.7% increased odds of an increase in DNA copy numbers. Disease incidence was correlated with airborne P. effusa levels and weather variables, and a receiver operating characteristic curve analysis suggested that P. effusa DNA copy numbers determined from the spore traps nine days prior to disease rating could predict disease incidence.

Modelling transmission characteristics and epidemic development of the tospovirus–thrip interaction

Abstract Tospoviruses are plant viruses in the genus Bunyaviridae transmitted in a persistent–propagative manner by a range of thrips species and cause disease in wide range of cultivated crops and wild hosts. The viruses in this genus are the only plant-infecting members of the Bunyaviridae. A distinguishing feature, of tospoviruses, from other persistent–propagative plant viruses is that acquisition from infected host plants only occurs by larvae of thrips species. This transmission characteristic is modelled generically as acquisition by juveniles, an invasion threshold is derived, and the dynamics of the system are compared with systems where adults only are involved in acquisition and inoculation. The comparison suggests that in the model disease develops faster and to a greater extent where adults are involved in both acquisition and inoculation. In that case, mobile non-viruliferous adults visit infected plants to acquire virus and in turn visit healthy plants to inoculate virus, whereas acquisition by non-mobile juveniles depends firstly on eggs being laid on an infected plant and then on the virus passaging trans-stadially from the juvenile to the mobile adult form: other factors being equal, the greater the mobility of vectors the greater the probability of both acquisition and inoculation. Where acquisition is by both juvenile and adult forms of the vector, the derived invasion threshold is simply the sum of the component thresholds for each life stage; however, there may be a fitness cost on combining these characteristics expressed as a trade-off between optimising the life history parameters involved in each acquisition route.

Information graphs for binary predictors

Binary predictors are used in a wide range of crop protection decision-making applications. Such predictors provide a simple analytical apparatus for the formulation of evidence related to risk factors, for use in the process of Bayesian updating of probabilities of crop disease. For diagrammatic interpretation of diagnostic probabilities, the receiver operating characteristic is available. Here, we view binary predictors from the perspective of diagnostic information. After a brief introduction to the basic information theoretic concepts of entropy and expected mutual information, we use an example data set to provide diagrammatic interpretations of expected mutual information, relative entropy, information inaccuracy, information updating, and specific information. Our information graphs also illustrate correspondences between diagnostic information and diagnostic probabilities.

Core-periphery or decentralized? Topological shifts of specialized information on Twitter

Abstract In this paper we investigate shifts in Twitter network topology resulting from the type of information being shared. We identified communities matching areas of agricultural expertise and measured the core-periphery centralization of network formations resulting from users sharing generic versus specialized information. We found that centralization increases when specialized information is shared and that the network adopts decentralized formations as conversations become more generic. The results are consistent with classical diffusion models positing that specialized information comes with greater centralization, but they also show that users favor decentralized formations, which can foster community cohesion, when spreading specialized information is secondary.

Spatiotemporal Patterns in the Airborne Dispersal of Spinach Downy Mildew

Downy mildew is the most devastating disease threatening sustainable spinach production, particularly in the organic sector. The disease is caused by the biotrophic oomycete pathogen Peronospora effusa, and the disease results in yellow lesions that render the crop unmarketable. In this study, the levels of DNA from airborne spores of P. effusa were assessed near a field of susceptible plants in Salinas, CA during the winter months of 2013-14 and 2014/15 using rotating-arm impaction spore-trap samplers that were assessed with a species-specific quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) assay. Low levels of P. effusa DNA were detectable from December through February in both winters but increased during January in both years, in correlation with observed disease incidence; sharp peaks in P. effusa DNA detection were associated with the onset of disease incidence. The incidence of downy mildew in the susceptible field displayed logistic-like dynamics but with considerable interseason variation. Analysis of the area under the disease progress curves suggested that the 2013-14 epidemic was significantly more severe than the 2014-15 epidemic. Spatial analyses indicated that disease incidence was dependent within an average range of 5.6 m, approximately equivalent to the width of three planted beds in a typical production field. The spatial distribution of spores captured during an active epidemic most closely fit a power-law distribution but could also be fit with an exponential distribution. These studies revealed two important results in the epidemiology of spinach downy mildew in California. First, they demonstrated the potential of impaction spore-trap samplers linked with a qPCR assay for indicating periods of high disease risk, as well as the detection of long-distance dispersal of P. effusa spores. Second, at the scale of individual crops, a high degree of spatial aggregation in disease incidence was revealed.