Neil Pearce

Worldwide trends in the prevalence of asthma symptoms: phase III of the International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood (ISAAC)

Background: Phase I of the International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood (ISAAC) was designed to allow worldwide comparisons of the prevalence of asthma symptoms. In phase III the phase I survey was repeated in order to assess changes over time. Methods: The phase I survey was repeated after an interval of 5–10 years in 106 centres in 56 countries in children aged 13–14 years (n = 304 679) and in 66 centres in 37 countries in children aged 6–7 years (n = 193 404). Results: The mean symptom prevalence of current wheeze in the last 12 months changed slightly from 13.2% to 13.7% in the 13–14 year age group (mean increase of 0.06% per year) and from 11.1% to 11.6% in the 6–7 year age group (mean increase of 0.13% per year). There was also little change in the mean symptom prevalence of severe asthma or the symptom prevalence measured with the asthma video questionnaire. However, the time trends in asthma symptom prevalence showed different regional patterns. In Western Europe, current wheeze decreased by 0.07% per year in children aged 13–14 years but increased by 0.20% per year in children aged 6–7 years. The corresponding findings per year for the other regions in children aged 13–14 years and 6–7 years, respectively, were: Oceania (−0.39% and −0.21%); Latin America (+0.32% and +0.07%); Northern and Eastern Europe (+0.26% and +0.05%); Africa (+0.16% and +0.10%); North America (+0.12% and +0.32%); Eastern Mediterranean (−0.10% and +0.79%); Asia-Pacific (+0.07% and −0.06%); and the Indian subcontinent (+0.02% and +0.06%). There was a particularly marked reduction in current asthma symptom prevalence in English language countries (−0.51% and −0.09%). Similar patterns were observed for symptoms of severe asthma. However, the percentage of children reported to have had asthma at some time in their lives increased by 0.28% per year in the 13–14 year age group and by 0.18% per year in the 6–7 year age group. Conclusions: These findings indicate that international differences in asthma symptom prevalence have reduced, particularly in the 13–14 year age group, with decreases in prevalence in English speaking countries and Western Europe and increases in prevalence in regions where prevalence was previously low. Although there was little change in the overall prevalence of current wheeze, the percentage of children reported to have had asthma increased significantly, possibly reflecting greater awareness of this condition and/or changes in diagnostic practice. The increases in asthma symptom prevalence in Africa, Latin America and parts of Asia indicate that the global burden of asthma is continuing to rise, but the global prevalence differences are lessening.

Worldwide variations in the prevalence of symptoms of atopic eczema in the international study of asthma and allergies in childhood

BACKGROUND Little is known about the prevalence of atopic eczema outside Northern Europe. OBJECTIVES We sought to describe the magnitude and variation in the prevalence of atopic eczema symptoms throughout the world. METHODS A cross-sectional questionnaire survey was conducted on random samples of schoolchildren aged 6 to 7 years and 13 to 14 years from centers in 56 countries throughout the world. Those children with a positive response to being questioned about the presence of an itchy relapsing skin rash in the last 12 months that had affected their skin creases were considered to have atopic eczema. Children whose atopic eczema symptoms resulted in sleep disturbance for 1 or more nights per week were considered to have severe atopic eczema. RESULTS Complete data was available for 256,410 children aged 6 to 7 years in 90 centers and 458,623 children aged 13 to 14 years in 153 centers. The prevalence range for symptoms of atopic eczema was from less than 2% in Iran to over 16% in Japan and Sweden in the 6 to 7 year age range and less than 1% in Albania to over 17% in Nigeria for the 13 to 14 year age range. Higher prevalences of atopic eczema symptoms were reported in Australasia and Northern Europe, and lower prevalences were reported in Eastern and Central Europe and Asia. Similar patterns were seen for symptoms of severe atopic eczema. CONCLUSIONS Atopic eczema is a common health problem for children and adolescents throughout the world. Symptoms of atopic eczema exhibit wide variations in prevalence both within and between countries inhabited by similar ethnic groups, suggesting that environmental factors may be critical in determining disease expression. Studies that include objective skin examinations are required to confirm these findings.

How much asthma is really attributable to atopy

In recent decades it has become routine to describe asthma as an atopic disease. A theoretical paradigm has evolved in which allergen exposure produces atopic sensitisation and continued exposure leads to clinical asthma through the development of airways inflammation, bronchial hyperresponsiveness, and reversible airflow obstruction. As Martinez1 notes, this paradigm has been used with particular insistence with regard to house dust mite allergens,2 3 but other allergens (cat, cockroach, dog) are also believed to be important. The importance of atopy is most widely accepted for asthma in children whereas, among adults, asthma has traditionally been divided into “extrinsic” and “intrinsic” asthma, although this also has been challenged.4 It is acknowledged that not all cases of asthma fit this paradigm—for example, some occupational causes of asthma do not appear to involve atopy—but these are regarded as interesting minor anomalies that do not threaten the dominant paradigm. In this review we assess the extent to which the development of asthma is attributable to atopy (we do not consider the separate issue of the extent to which the development of atopy itself is attributable to allergen exposure, although this is also the subject of debate1). We start by considering definitions of asthma and atopy and then review evidence on their association in random population surveys. We do not intend to argue that atopy does not play an important role in the development of a significant proportion of asthma cases. However, our concern is that the proportion of asthma cases attributable to atopy may have been overestimated, and that other possible aetiological mechanisms and risk factors for asthma may therefore have been neglected. The definition of asthma is still controversial but an appropriate definition is a precondition for addressing the issues considered in this paper. The term “asthma” encompasses a …

Worldwide variations in prevalence of symptoms of allergic rhinoconjunctivitis in children: the International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood (ISAAC).

Background: As part of the International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood (ISAAC), prevalence surveys were conducted among representative samples of school children from locations in Europe, Asia, Africa, Australasia, North and South America.

PRESCRIBED FENOTEROL AND DEATH FROM ASTHMA IN NEW ZEALAND, 1981-83; CASE-CONTROL STUDY

A case-control study was conducted to examine the hypothesis that fenoterol by metered dose inhaler (MDI) increases the risk of death in patients with asthma. The case group comprised 117 patients aged 5-45 who died of asthma between August, 1981, and July, 1983. For each case, 4 controls, matched for age and ethnic group, were selected from asthma admissions to hospitals to which the cases themselves would have been admitted, had they survived. The relative risk of asthma death in patients prescribed fenoterol by MDI was 1.55 (95% CI 1.04-2.33, p = 0.03). The possibility of confounding or effect modification by severity was assessed by consideration of subgroups defined by markers of asthma severity. The fenoterol MDI relative risk was 2.21 (95% CI 1.26-3.88, p = 0.01) in patients prescribed three or more categories of asthma drugs, 2.16 (95% CI 1.14-4.11, p = 0.02) in patients with a hospital admission for asthma during the previous 12 months, and 6.45 (95% CI 2.72-15.3, p less than 0.01) in patients prescribed oral corticosteroids at time of death or admission. In the group of patients with the most severe asthma (defined by a hospital admission during the previous year and prescription of oral corticosteroids) the fenoterol MDI relative risk was 13.29 (95% CI 3.45-51.2, p less than 0.01). After adjustment for severity, no other asthma treatment commonly used in New Zealand seemed to be associated with an increased risk of asthma death. Not all sources of bias can be definitely excluded; however, when considered together with other epidemiological and experimental evidence, these findings are consistent with the hypothesis that use of fenoterol by MDI increases the risk of death in severe asthma.

Non-eosinophilic asthma: importance and possible mechanisms

There is increasing evidence that inflammatory mechanisms other than eosinophilic inflammation may be involved in producing the final common pathway of enhanced bronchial reactivity and reversible airflow obstruction that characterises asthma. A review of the literature has shown that, at most, only 50% of asthma cases are attributable to eosinophilic airway inflammation. It is hypothesised that a major proportion of asthma is based on neutrophilic airway inflammation, possibly triggered by environmental exposure to bacterial endotoxin, particulate air pollution, and ozone, as well as viral infections. If there are indeed two (or more) subtypes of asthma, and if non-eosinophilic (neutrophil mediated) asthma is relatively common, this would have major consequences for the treatment and prevention of asthma since most treatment and prevention strategies are now almost entirely focused on allergic/eosinophilic asthma and allergen avoidance measures, respectively. It is therefore important to study the aetiology of asthma further, including the underlying inflammatory profiles.

Traditional epidemiology, modern epidemiology, and public health.

There have been significant developments in epidemiologic methodology during the past century, including changes in basic concepts, methods of data analysis, and methods of exposure measurement. However, the rise of modern epidemiology has been a mixed blessing, and the new paradigm has major shortcomings, both in public health and scientific terms. The changes in the paradigm have not been neutral but have rather helped change- and have reflected changes in-the way in which epidemiologists think about health and disease. The key issue has been the shift in the level of analysis from the population to the individual. Epidemiology has largely ceased to function as part of a multidisciplinary approach to understanding the causation of disease in populations and has become a set of generic methods for measuring associations of exposure and disease in individuals. This reductionist approach focuses on the individual, blames the victim, and produces interventions that can be harmful. We seem to be using more and more advanced technology to study more and more trivial issues, while the major causes of disease are ignored. Epidemiology must reintegrate itself into public health and must rediscover the population perspective.

UK health performance: findings of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND The UK has had universal free health care and public health programmes for more than six decades. Several policy initiatives and structural reforms of the health system have been undertaken. Health expenditure has increased substantially since 1990, albeit from relatively low levels compared with other countries. We used data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 (GBD 2010) to examine the patterns of health loss in the UK, the leading preventable risks that explain some of these patterns, and how UK outcomes compare with a set of comparable countries in the European Union and elsewhere in 1990 and 2010. METHODS We used results of GBD 2010 for 1990 and 2010 for the UK and 18 other comparator nations (the original 15 members of the European Union, Australia, Canada, Norway, and the USA; henceforth EU15+). We present analyses of trends and relative performance for mortality, causes of death, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE). We present results for 259 diseases and injuries and for 67 risk factors or clusters of risk factors relevant to the UK. We assessed the UKs rank for age-standardised YLLs and DALYs for their leading causes compared with EU15+ in 1990 and 2010. We estimated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for all measures. FINDINGS For both mortality and disability, overall health has improved substantially in absolute terms in the UK from 1990 to 2010. Life expectancy in the UK increased by 4·2 years (95% UI 4·2-4·3) from 1990 to 2010. However, the UK performed significantly worse than the EU15+ for age-standardised death rates, age-standardised YLL rates, and life expectancy in 1990, and its relative position had worsened by 2010. Although in most age groups, there have been reductions in age-specific mortality, for men aged 30-34 years, mortality rates have hardly changed (reduction of 3·7%, 95% UI 2·7-4·9). In terms of premature mortality, worsening ranks are most notable for men and women aged 20-54 years. For all age groups, the contributions of Alzheimers disease (increase of 137%, 16-277), cirrhosis (65%, ?15 to 107), and drug use disorders (577%, 71-942) to premature mortality rose from 1990 to 2010. In 2010, compared with EU15+, the UK had significantly lower rates of age-standardised YLLs for road injury, diabetes, liver cancer, and chronic kidney disease, but significantly greater rates for ischaemic heart disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, lower respiratory infections, breast cancer, other cardiovascular and circulatory disorders, oesophageal cancer, preterm birth complications, congenital anomalies, and aortic aneurysm. Because YLDs per person by age and sex have not changed substantially from 1990 to 2010 but age-specific mortality has been falling, the importance of chronic disability is rising. The major causes of YLDs in 2010 were mental and behavioural disorders (including substance abuse; 21·5% [95 UI 17·2-26·3] of YLDs), and musculoskeletal disorders (30·5% [25·5-35·7]). The leading risk factor in the UK was tobacco (11·8% [10·5-13·3] of DALYs), followed by increased blood pressure (9·0 % [7·5-10·5]), and high body-mass index (8·6% [7·4-9·8]). Diet and physical inactivity accounted for 14·3% (95% UI 12·8-15·9) of UK DALYs in 2010. INTERPRETATION The performance of the UK in terms of premature mortality is persistently and significantly below the mean of EU15+ and requires additional concerted action. Further progress in premature mortality from several major causes, such as cardiovascular diseases and cancers, will probably require improved public health, prevention, early intervention, and treatment activities. The growing burden of disability, particularly from mental disorders, substance use, musculoskeletal disorders, and falls deserves an integrated and strategic response. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Prescribed fenoterol and death from asthma in New Zealand, 1981-7: a further case-control study.

The association between inhaled fenoterol and death from asthma has been investigated further by studying 112 asthma deaths (cases) during 1981-7 in patients aged 5-45 years who had been admitted to a major hospital for asthma during the 12 months before death. Two age matched control groups were chosen. Control group A comprised 427 patients who had been admitted to hospital for asthma during the calendar year that the corresponding death occurred and who had also had a previous admission for asthma in the previous 12 months. Control group B comprised 448 patients admitted to hospital for asthma during the calendar year in which the admission of the corresponding case occurred. The inhaled fenoterol odds ratio was 2.11 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.37-3.23, p less than 0.01) when group A was used as the control (the approach used in previous studies), and 2.66 (95% CI 1.74-4.06, p less than 0.01) with group B as the control (the approach recommended by critics of previous studies). Markers of chronic asthma severity were associated with asthma death when control group B was used, but not when control group A was used (which indicates that these markers were indirectly matched for when control group A was used). Information was also collected on various markers of acute asthma severity and prescription of psychotropic drugs, but it was found that these were not important confounders. These findings address the major criticisms of previous case-control studies of this issue, and add support to the hypothesis that inhaled fenoterol increases the risk of death in patients with severe asthma.

The INTERPHONE study: design, epidemiological methods, and description of the study population

The very rapid worldwide increase in mobile phone use in the last decade has generated considerable interest in the possible health effects of exposure to radio frequency (RF) fields. A multinational case–control study, INTERPHONE, was set-up to investigate whether mobile phone use increases the risk of cancer and, more specifically, whether the RF fields emitted by mobile phones are carcinogenic. The study focused on tumours arising in the tissues most exposed to RF fields from mobile phones: glioma, meningioma, acoustic neurinoma and parotid gland tumours. In addition to a detailed history of mobile phone use, information was collected on a number of known and potential risk factors for these tumours. The study was conducted in 13 countries. Australia, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Israel, Italy, Japan, New Zealand, Norway, Sweden, and the UK using a common core protocol. This paper describes the study design and methods and the main characteristics of the study population. INTERPHONE is the largest case–control study to date investigating risks related to mobile phone use and to other potential risk factors for the tumours of interest and includes 2,765 glioma, 2,425 meningioma, 1,121 acoustic neurinoma, 109 malignant parotid gland tumour cases and 7,658 controls. Particular attention was paid to estimating the amount and direction of potential recall and participation biases and their impact on the study results.