Nelson Gouveia

International study of temperature, heat and urban mortality: the ‘ISOTHURM’ project

BACKGROUND This study describes heat- and cold-related mortality in 12 urban populations in low- and middle-income countries, thereby extending knowledge of how diverse populations, in non-OECD countries, respond to temperature extremes. METHODS The cities were: Delhi, Monterrey, Mexico City, Chiang Mai, Bangkok, Salvador, São Paulo, Santiago, Cape Town, Ljubljana, Bucharest and Sofia. For each city, daily mortality was examined in relation to ambient temperature using autoregressive Poisson models (2- to 5-year series) adjusted for season, relative humidity, air pollution, day of week and public holidays. RESULTS Most cities showed a U-shaped temperature-mortality relationship, with clear evidence of increasing death rates at colder temperatures in all cities except Ljubljana, Salvador and Delhi and with increasing heat in all cities except Chiang Mai and Cape Town. Estimates of the temperature threshold below which cold-related mortality began to increase ranged from 15 degrees C to 29 degrees C; the threshold for heat-related deaths ranged from 16 degrees C to 31 degrees C. Heat thresholds were generally higher in cities with warmer climates, while cold thresholds were unrelated to climate. CONCLUSIONS Urban populations, in diverse geographic settings, experience increases in mortality due to both high and low temperatures. The effects of heat and cold vary depending on climate and non-climate factors such as the population disease profile and age structure. Although such populations will undergo some adaptation to increasing temperatures, many are likely to have substantial vulnerability to climate change. Additional research is needed to elucidate vulnerability within populations.

Time series analysis of air pollution and mortality: effects by cause, age and socioeconomic status

OBJECTIVE To investigate the association between outdoor air pollution and mortality in São Paulo, Brazil. DESIGN Time series study METHODS All causes, respiratory and cardiovascular mortality were analysed and the role of age and socioeconomic status in modifying associations between mortality and air pollution were investigated. Models used Poisson regression and included terms for temporal patterns, meteorology, and autocorrelation. MAIN RESULTS All causes all ages mortality showed much smaller associations with air pollution than mortality for specific causes and age groups. In the elderly, a 3–4% increase in daily deaths for all causes and for cardiovascular diseases was associated with an increase in fine particulate matter and in sulphur dioxide from the 10th to the 90th percentile. For respiratory deaths the increase in mortality was higher (6%). Cardiovascular deaths were additionally associated with levels of carbon monoxide (4% increase in daily deaths). The associations between air pollutants and mortality in children under 5 years of age were not statistically significant. There was a significant trend of increasing risk of death according to age with effects most evident for subjects over 65 years old. The effect of air pollution was also larger in areas of higher socioeconomic level. CONCLUSIONS These results show further evidence of an association between air pollution and mortality but of smaller magnitude than found in other similar studies. In addition, it seems that older age groups are at a higher risk of mortality associated with air pollution. Such complexity should be taken into account in health risk assessment based on time series studies.

Mortality displacement of heat-related deaths : a comparison of Delhi, Sao Paulo, and London

Background: Mortality increases with hot weather, although the extent to which lives are shortened is rarely quantified. We compare the extent to which short-term mortality displacement can explain heat deaths in Delhi, São Paulo, and London given contrasting demographic and health profiles. Methods: We examined time-series of daily mortality data in relation to daily ambient temperature using Poisson models and adjusting for season, relative humidity, rainfall, particulate air pollution, day of the week, and public holidays. We used unconstrained distributed lag models to identify the extent to which heat-related excesses were followed by deficits (mortality displacement). Results: For each city, an increase in all-cause mortality was observed with same-day (lag 0) and previous day (lag 1) temperatures greater than a threshold of 20°C. At lag 0, the excess risk wasgreatest in Delhi and smallest in London. In Delhi, an excess was apparent up to 3 weeks after exposure, after which a deficit was observed that offset just part of the overall excess. In London, the heat excess persisted only 2 days and was followed by deficits, such that the sum of effects was 0 by day 11. The pattern in São Paulo was intermediate between these. The risk summed over the course of 28 days was 2.4% (95% confidence interval = 0.1 to 4.7%) per degree greater than the heat threshold in Delhi, 0.8% (−0.4 to 2.1%) in São Paulo and −1.6% (−3.4 to 0.3%) in London. Excess risks were sustained up to 4 weeks for respiratory deaths in São Paulo and London and for children in Delhi. Conclusions: Heat-related short-term mortality displacement was high in London but less in Delhi, where infectious and childhood mortality still predominate.

Association between ambient air pollution and birth weight in São Paulo, Brazil

Objectives: Previous studies have implicated air pollution in increased mortality and morbidity, especially in the elderly population and children. More recently, associations with mortality in infants and with some reproductive outcomes have also been reported. The aim of this study is to explore the association between exposure to outdoor air pollution during pregnancy and birth weight. Design: Cross sectional study using data on all singleton full term live births during a one year period. For each individual birth, information on gestational age, type of delivery, birth weight, sex, maternal education, maternal age, place of residence, and parity was available. Daily mean levels of PM10, sulphur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide, carbon monoxide, and ozone were also gathered. The association between birth weight and air pollution was assessed in regression models with exposure averaged over each trimester of pregnancy. Setting: São Paulo city, Brazil. Results: Birth weight was shown to be associated with length of gestation, maternal age and instruction, infant gender, number of antenatal care visits, parity, and type of delivery. On adjusting for these variables negative effects of exposure to PM10 and carbon monoxide during the first trimester were observed. This effect seemed to be more robust for carbon monoxide. For a 1 ppm increase in mean exposure to carbon monoxide during the first trimester a reduction of 23 g in birth weight was estimated. Conclusions: The results are consistent in revealing that exposure to air pollution during pregnancy may interfere with weight gain in the fetus. Given the poorer outlook for low birthweight babies on a number of health outcomes, this finding is important from the public health perspective.

Maternal exposure to particulate air pollution and term birth weight : a multi-country evaluation of effect and heterogeneity

Background: A growing body of evidence has associated maternal exposure to air pollution with adverse effects on fetal growth; however, the existing literature is inconsistent. Objectives: We aimed to quantify the association between maternal exposure to particulate air pollution and term birth weight and low birth weight (LBW) across 14 centers from 9 countries, and to explore the influence of site characteristics and exposure assessment methods on between-center heterogeneity in this association. Methods: Using a common analytical protocol, International Collaboration on Air Pollution and Pregnancy Outcomes (ICAPPO) centers generated effect estimates for term LBW and continuous birth weight associated with PM10 and PM2.5 (particulate matter ≤ 10 and 2.5 µm). We used meta-analysis to combine the estimates of effect across centers (~ 3 million births) and used meta-regression to evaluate the influence of center characteristics and exposure assessment methods on between-center heterogeneity in reported effect estimates. Results: In random-effects meta-analyses, term LBW was positively associated with a 10-μg/m3 increase in PM10 [odds ratio (OR) = 1.03; 95% CI: 1.01, 1.05] and PM2.5 (OR = 1.10; 95% CI: 1.03, 1.18) exposure during the entire pregnancy, adjusted for maternal socioeconomic status. A 10-μg/m3 increase in PM10 exposure was also negatively associated with term birth weight as a continuous outcome in the fully adjusted random-effects meta-analyses (–8.9 g; 95% CI: –13.2, –4.6 g). Meta-regressions revealed that centers with higher median PM2.5 levels and PM2.5:PM10 ratios, and centers that used a temporal exposure assessment (compared with spatiotemporal), tended to report stronger associations. Conclusion: Maternal exposure to particulate pollution was associated with LBW at term across study populations. We detected three site characteristics and aspects of exposure assessment methodology that appeared to contribute to the variation in associations reported by centers.

Vulnerability to heat-related mortality in Latin America: a case-crossover study in São Paulo, Brazil, Santiago, Chile and Mexico City, Mexico

BACKGROUND Factors affecting vulnerability to heat-related mortality are not well understood. Identifying susceptible populations is of particular importance given anticipated rising temperatures from climatic change. METHODS We investigated heat-related mortality for three Latin American cities (Mexico City, Mexico; São Paulo, Brazil; Santiago, Chile) using a case-crossover approach for 754 291 deaths from 1998 to 2002. We considered lagged exposures, confounding by air pollution, cause of death and susceptibilities by educational attainment, age and sex. RESULTS Same and previous day apparent temperature were most strongly associated with mortality risk. Effect estimates remained positive though lowered after adjustment for ozone or PM(10). Susceptibility increased with age in all cities. The increase in mortality risk for those >or=65 comparing the 95th and 75th percentiles of same-day apparent temperature was 2.69% (95% CI: -2.06 to 7.88%) for Santiago, 6.51% (95% CI: 3.57-9.52%) for São Paulo and 3.22% (95% CI: 0.93-5.57%) for Mexico City. Patterns of vulnerability by education and sex differed across communities. Effect estimates were higher for women than men in Mexico City, and higher for men elsewhere, although results by sex were not appreciably different for any city. In São Paulo, those with less education were more susceptible, whereas no distinct patterns by education were observed in the other cities. CONCLUSIONS Elevated temperatures are associated with mortality risk in these Latin American cities, with the strongest associations in São Paulo, the hottest city. The elderly are an important population for targeted prevention measures, but vulnerability by sex and education differed by city.

Respiratory diseases in children and outdoor air pollution in São Paulo, Brazil: a time series analysis.

OBJECTIVES To investigate the short term effects of air pollution on the respiratory morbidity of children living in São Paulo, Brazil, one of the largest cities in the developing world. METHODS Daily counts of hospital admissions due to respiratory diseases along with daily levels of meteorological variables and air pollutants (PM10, SO2, NO2, O3, and CO) were analysed with Poisson regression. Final models were adjusted for the effects of time trends, seasonal patterns, weekdays, holidays, meteorological factors, and serial correlation. RESULTS Daily admissions of children to hospital for total respiratory disease and pneumonia showed significant increases associated with O3(5–8%), NO2 (9%), and with PM10 (9%) (results are for an increase from the 10th to the 90th percentile of pollution measurements). Consistently, effects for pneumonia were greater than for all respiratory diseases combined. Also, effects on infants (children <1 year old) presented higher estimates. Similar associations were found for asthma admissions. Point estimates for most pollutants were higher for asthma than for other diagnosed admissions. However, these associations were not significant. CONCLUSIONS These results agree with the limited publications on this subject but indicate a rather smaller magnitude of effects. Nevertheless, given the present concentrations of air pollution in São Paulo and the large population potentially exposed attention should be directed to minimise such effects.

Hospitalizações por causas respiratórias e cardiovasculares associadas à contaminação atmosférica no Município de São Paulo, Brasil

The recognition that current air pollution levels cause harmful health effects makes the definition of the air quality regulatory process imperative. This study examines the association between exposure to air pollution and hospital admissions in the city of Sao Paulo, aiming to support the development of measures to reduce such health risks. The authors conducted an ecological time series study of hospital admissions for respiratory and cardiovascular diseases in children and the elderly in relation to daily air pollution levels, using generalized additive Poisson regression models. All air pollutants except ozone showed a statistically significant association with admissions for respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. An increase of 10µg/m3 in fine particulate matter was associated with a 4.6% increase in asthma admissions in children and a 4.3% increase in admissions for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and 1.5% for ischemic heart disease in the elderly. These associations are consistent with a large body of literature in this area and indicate that the current air pollution levels in Sao Paulo have an important negative impact on the populations health.

Gender-based violence and socioeconomic inequalities: Does living in more deprived neighbourhoods increase women's risk of intimate partner violence?

This study investigates the influence of neighbourhood socioeconomic conditions on womens likelihood of experiencing intimate partner violence (IPV) in Sao Paulo, Brazil. Data from 940 women who were interviewed as part of the WHO multi-country study on womens health and domestic violence against women, and census data for Sao Paulo City, were analyzed using multilevel regression techniques. A neighbourhood socioeconomic-level scale was created, and proxies for the socioeconomic positions of the couple were included. Other individual level variables included factors related to partners behaviour and womens experiences and attitudes. Womens risk of IPV did not vary across neighbourhoods in Sao Paulo nor was it influenced by her individual socioeconomic characteristics. However, women in the middle range of the socioeconomic scale were significantly more likely to report having experienced violence by a partner. Partner behaviours such as excessive alcohol use, controlling behaviour and multiple sexual partnerships were important predictors of IPV. A womens likelihood of IPV also increased if either her mother had experienced IPV or if she used alcohol excessively. These findings suggest that although the characteristics of people living in deprived neighbourhoods may influence the probability that a woman will experience IPV, higher-order contextual dynamics do not seem to affect this risk. While poverty reduction will improve the lives of individuals in many ways, strategies to reduce IPV should prioritize shifting norms that reinforce certain negative male behaviours.

Hospital admissions and mortality: association with air pollution in São Paulo, Brazil, 1993 to 1997

OBJECTIVE To investigate short-term effects of air pollution on respiratory morbidity of children under 15 and elderly mortality. METHODS The study was carried out in the city of São Paulo, Brazil. Daily hospital admissions due to respiratory conditions in children under 15 and mortality of adults over 64 years of age were obtained for the period ranging from 1993 to 1997. Daily levels of PM10, CO and O3 were collected for the same period. Poisson regression analysis was used in generalized additive models, which were adjusted for temporal trends, seasonality, day of the week, temperature and relative humidity as well as serial autocorrelation. RESULTS A 10th to 90th percentile variation of pollutants was significantly associated with respiratory admissions of children and PM10 (%RR=10.0), CO (%RR=6.1), and O3 (%RR=2.5). Similar results were observed for mortality in elderly people and PM10 (%RR=8.1) and CO (%RR=7.9). CONCLUSIONS The study results are consistent with other studies showing an association of short-term variations of air pollution and increase of morbidity and mortality in large urban centers.