Nengmin Wang

The bullwhip effect on product orders and inventory: a perspective of demand forecasting techniques

Demand forecasting is one of the key causes of the bullwhip effect on product orders. Although this aspect of order oscillation is not ignored, the current study focuses on another critical aspect of oscillation: the bullwhip effect on inventory, i.e. the net inventory variance amplification. In particular, this paper studies a two-level supply chain in which the demand is price sensitive, while the price follows a first-order autoregressive pricing process. We derive the analytical expressions of the bullwhip effect on product orders and inventory using minimum mean-squared error, moving average and exponential smoothing forecasting techniques. We also propose the conditions under which the three forecasting techniques would be chosen by the retailer to minimise the sum of the bullwhip effect on product orders and inventory under different weightings. These observations are used to develop managerial insights regarding choosing an appropriate forecasting technique after considering certain distinct characteristics of the product.

The bullwhip effect under different information-sharing settings: a perspective on price-sensitive demand that incorporates price dynamics

Information sharing has been shown previously in the literature to be effective in reducing the magnitude of the bullwhip effect. Most of these studies have focused on a particular information-sharing setting that assumes demand follows an autoregressive process. In this paper, we contribute to the literature by presenting a price-sensitive demand model and a first-order autoregressive pricing process that is coupled to the optimal order-up-to inventory policy and the optimal minimum mean-squared error forecasting technique. We compare a no information-sharing setting – in which only the first stage of the supply chain observes end-customer demands and market prices, and upstream echelons must base their forecasts on downstream incoming orders – with two information-sharing settings, end-demand and order information and end-demand information. In the case of end-demand and order information, upstream echelons develop their forecasts and plan their inventories based on the end-customer demand, price information, and downstream orders. With end-demand information, upstream echelons use only end-customer demands and market prices to conduct their forecasting and planning. We derive the analytical expressions of the bullwhip effect with and without information sharing, quantify the impact of information sharing on the reduction of the bullwhip effect associated with end-demand and order information and end-demand information, and explore the optimal information setting that could most significantly restrain the bullwhip effect. Our analysis suggests that the value of these two information-sharing settings can be high, especially when the pricing process is highly correlated over time or when the product price sensitivity coefficient is small. Moreover, we find that the value of adopting end-demand and order information is always greater than that of end-demand information.

Employees’ Exploration of Complex Systems: An Integrative View

Abstract Based on the theory of effective use and adaptive structuration theory, we propose that employees’ system exploration behavior can be affected by factors related to three major components: task, system, and organizational environment. Specifically, we examine how task characteristics (job autonomy and task variety), system complexity, and innovation climate jointly affect employees’ exploration, which, in turn, leads to extended use of enterprise systems. A field survey of enterprise resource planning (ERP) users yields several interesting findings. First, job autonomy and task variety directly enhance system exploration. Second, system complexity plays a moderating role by strengthening the relationship between job autonomy and exploration and weakening the relationship between task variety and exploration. Third, innovation climate, also acting as a moderator, strengthens both the impact of job autonomy on exploration and the impact of system exploration on extended use. This research contributes to information systems (IS) research by theoretically articulating that system exploration is subject to the simultaneous influences of task, system, and organizational environment factors and empirically testing these factors’ main effects and interactions to shed new light on system exploration research. It also contributes to IS practice by suggesting that organizations could enhance employees’ system exploration and facilitate the transition from exploration to extended use by increasing job autonomy and task variety, designing personalized training programs to reduce system complexity, and developing organizational climates that foster innovations.

Analysis of the bullwhip effect in two parallel supply chains with interacting price-sensitive demands

This paper offers insights into how the bullwhip effect in two parallel supply chains with interacting price-sensitive demands is affected in contrast to the situation of a single product in a serial supply chain. In particular, this research studies two parallel supply chains, each consisting of a manufacturer and a retailer, and the external demand for a single product depends on its price and the others price in a situation in which each price follows a first-order autoregressive process. In this paper, we propose an analytical framework that incorporates two parallel supply chains, and we explore their interactions to determine the bullwhip effect. We identify the conditions under which the bullwhip effect is amplified or lessened with interacting price-sensitive demands relative to the situation without interaction.

Integrated Inventory Routing Problem with Quality Time Windows and Loading Cost for Deteriorating Items under Discrete Time

We investigate an integrated inventory routing problem (IRP) in which one supplier with limited production capacity distributes a single item to a set of retailers using homogeneous vehicles. In the objective function we consider a loading cost which is often neglected in previous research. Considering the deterioration in the products, we set a soft time window during the transportation stage and a hard time window during the sales stage, and to prevent jams and waiting cost, the time interval of two successive vehicles returning to the supplier’s facilities is required not to be overly short. Combining all of these factors, a two-echelon supply chain mixed integer programming model under discrete time is proposed, and a two-phase algorithm is developed. The first phase uses tabu search to obtain the retailers’ ordering matrix. The second phase is to generate production scheduling and distribution routing, adopting a saving algorithm and a neighbourhood search, respectively. Computational experiments are conducted to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed model and algorithm.

Bi-objective cyclic scheduling in a robotic cell with processing time windows and non-Euclidean travel times

This paper addresses bi-objective cyclic scheduling in a robotic cell with processing time windows. In particular, we consider a more general non-Euclidean travel time metric where robot’s travel times are not required to satisfy the well-known triangular inequality. We develop a tight bi-objective mixed integer programming (MIP) model with valid inequalities for the cyclic robotic cell scheduling problem with processing time windows and non-Euclidean travel times. The objective is to minimise the cycle time and the total robot travel distance simultaneously. We propose an iterative ε-constraint method to solve the bi-objective MIP model, which can find the complete Pareto front. Computational results both on benchmark instances and randomly generated instances indicate that the proposed approach is efficient in solving the cyclic robotic cell scheduling problems.

The impact of consumer price forecasting behaviour on the bullwhip effect

As prices fluctuate over time, a strategic consumer may buy more in advance to reduce his or her future needs in anticipation of higher prices in the future, or may choose to postpone a purchase in anticipation of lower prices in the future. We investigate the bullwhip effect from a consumer price forecasting behavioural perspective in the context of a simple two-level supply chain composed of a supplier and a retailer. We consider two different forms for the demand function – linear and iso-elastic demand functions, both depending on the prices in multiple periods. Assuming that the retailer employs an order-up-to inventory policy with exponential smoothing forecasting technology, we derive analytical expressions for the bullwhip effect under the two demand functions, and extend the results to the multiple-retailer case. We find that consumer forecasting behaviour can reduce the bullwhip effect, most significantly when the consumer sensitivity to price changes is medium (approximately 0.5) for both the demand forms. In addition, for iso-elastic demand, the mitigation of the bullwhip effect induced by consumer price forecasting behaviour becomes more significant as the product price sensitivity coefficient and standard deviation of the price decrease. These findings are applicable to the development of managerial strategies by supply chain members that are conducive to bullwhip effect reduction through customer behaviour.

Reverse Revenue Sharing Contract versus Two-Part Tariff Contract under a Closed-Loop Supply Chain System

The importance of remanufacturing has been recognized in research and practice. The integrated system, combining the forward and reverse activities of supply chains, is called closed-loop supply chain (CLSC) system. By coordination in the CLSC system, players will get economic improvement. This paper studies different coordination performances of two types of contracts, two-part tariff (TTC) and reverse revenue sharing contract (RRSC), in a closed-loop system. Through mathematical analysis based on Stackelberg Game Theory, we find that it is easy for manufacturer to improve more profits and retailer’s collection effects by adjusting the ratio of transfer collection price through RRSC, and we also give the function to calculate the best ratio of transfer collection price, which may be a valuable reference for the decision maker in practice. Besides, our results also suggest that although the profits of the coordinated CLSC system are always higher than the contradictory scenario, the RRSC is more favorable to the manufacturer than to the retailer, as results show that the manufacturer will share more profits from the system through RRSC. Therefore, RRSC has attracted the manufacturers more to closing the supply chain for economic consideration.

Simulated annealing for financing cost distribution based project payment scheduling from a joint perspective

Based on the distribution of the project financing cost over the contractor and the client, this paper involves the project payment scheduling problem from a joint perspective of the two parties. In the problem, the project financing cost is defined as the expense for raising money from the outside or the opportunity cost of the capital devoted into the project and the objective is to find the project payment schedule that can not only maximize the joint revenue of the two parties but also be accepted by them. Based on the characteristics of the problem, an optimization model consisting of two submodels is constructed using the activity-based method. For the strong NP-hardness of the problem, two simulated annealing algorithms with different searching structures are developed and compared with the multi-start iterative improvement method on the basis of a computational experiment performed on a data set generated randomly. The results show that the simulated annealing algorithm with the nested loop module seems to be the most promising algorithm for solving the defined problem especially when the scale of the problem becomes larger. In addition, the influences of some key parameters on the computational results are investigated through the full factorial experiment and a few useful conclusions are drawn.

The bullwhip effect on inventory under different information sharing settings based on price-sensitive demand

Information sharing (IS) is proved to be a valid method to counter demand variability amplification along the supply chain, or bullwhip effect (BWE). Different from the traditional way of measuring the BWE based on order quantity, we measure the BWE on inventory in different IS settings and try to find the best IS approach. In this paper, the retailer will face the market demand which is price-sensitive, and the price follows a first-order autoregressive process. This demand model includes some indexes that can provide more useful managerial insights than previously studied parameters. Our study identifies the best IS setting under any conditions, and clarifies that the benefits of IS will be evident when the overall market product pricing process is highly correlated over time, the demand shocks to the retailer are high, the price sensitivity coefficient is small, the overall market shocks are low, the retailer’s lead-time is long and the manufacturer’s lead-time is short.