Neven Duić

KYOTO PROTOCOL OBJECTIVES BY PROMOTING THE TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER TO SMALL ISLAND DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: SANTO ANTAO, CAPE VERDE

Cape Verde is an example of a state that consists of several islands, with its particular energy situation. The electrical energy system is split into nine islands, and some of the islands, as well as Santo Antao, are further split into several independent electrical energy systems, which makes it hard for modern energy planning. The electricity generation is heavily dependent on Diesel engines of various powers, while on some islands there are some wind capacities installed, particularly on Sao Vicente. Diesel power is expensive and polluting, but still the most appropriate for such small scale electricity generation. This paper studies implications of different scenarios of development of electrical energy system on the island of Santo Antao, one of the most undeveloped and hard to electrify because of geography and lack of resources. An estimate of electricity demand for the period until 2030 is given. Business as usual scenario based on Diesel capacity is compared to two renewable energy scenarios, one envisaging 30% of the electricity generated by the wind power, and the other combining 25% of wind power with 5% of photovoltaic power. Further scenarios were generated and compared to the previous by the assumption of declining prices of renewable energy technologies. The scenarios were compared from the point of view of electricity generation prices, but also from the point of view of greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions. The possible influence of Clean Development Mechanism as a part of satisfying the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change objectives were assessed. A certain potential for financing the technology transfer was quantified and its influence on different electricity system planning scenarios estimated.

Kyoto Protocol Objectives in Croatia Energy Planning

Croatia as an Annex I country of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and a country that has pledged in the Annex of the Kyoto Protocol to reduce its greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions by 5% from the pre-transition level by the budget period 2008-12, will have to envisage a new energy strategy. Compared to the energy consumption collapse in some transitional countries like Russia and Ukraine, Croatia has passed through a relatively limited long term reduction of GHG emissions since 1990 because of higher efficiency of its pre-transition economy. It is expected that in case of business as usual scenario it will breach the Kyoto target in 2003 since the demand for energy will be high, especially as the income continues to rise, especially in domestic use for heating, for transport and for electricity generation. Several scenarios of developing energy system are compared from the point of view of GHG emissions. Business as usual scenario covers the planned gasification of coastal Croatia. In the transport sector no GHG reduction compared to the business as usual scenario is expected, unless there are technology innovations on global automotive industry level. The energy sector that will most probably be the most influenced by the UNFCCC objectives is electricity generation. Several scenarios are compared. The cost-effective scenario expects a mixture of coal and gas fired power plants to be built to satisfy the new demand and to replace the old power plants that are being decommissioned. More Kyoto friendly scenario envisages avoiding the construction of the most of the future fossil fuel power plants, while decommissioning the old ones as planned, and is compared to the others from the GHG emissions point of view. The conclusion is that by measures tackling only electricity generation it will not be possible to keep GHG emission under the Kyoto target level.