Newton Paulo Bueno

O modelo de Solow-Swan na linguagem de dinâmica de sistemas: uma aplicação para o Brasil

This paper aims at contributing to the Brazilian economic growth discussion based on a new approach: system dynamics. Specifically, we intend to develop a systemic version of Solow-Swan model which allows the exploration of new angles of some important insights from recent Brazilian studies using that model and the assessment of the ability of the economy to grow in the near future. The reason for approaching the problem from that perspective is that it allows modeling economic growth as a complex dynamic process. We shall argue that studying the issue from the systemic perspective may open new avenues of research such as allowing the performance of more accurate sensitivity analysis and the obtention of more reliable forecasts for non observable parameters by means of calibration procedure.

O ciclo do café durante a República Velha: uma análise com a abordagem de dinâmica de sistemas

The purpose of this work is to perform a systemic analysis of coffee production in Brazil in the period 1900-1930. The motivation to use system dynamics is that such methodology seems especially suitable to model processes subject to dynamic complexity, such as commodity cycles. Firstly, it will be shown that modeling and simulating the dynamics of coffee production in Brazil with this methodology enables to assess in a quantitative manner through counter-factual experiments the effects of price protection policies, which might complement the rich literature available on the subject. Secondly, it will be suggested that approaching the subject under that lens may allow the obtaining of insights on economic policy for other Brazilian important commodities beyond coffee.

Visitando vizinhos: uma análise da série histórica de produção de bens de capital no Brasil utilizando diagramas de recorrência

Encountering neighbors: an analysis of capital goods production in Brazil using recurrence plot diagrams - The objective of the paper is to identify possible non-linearities in Brazilian capital goods production in the period January/1975-January/2002. Using the techniques of recurrence plots diagrams and nearest neighbors forecasting, we found evidences that investments in Brazil present a non negligible non-linear component. Although it has not been the purpose of the paper to identify the possible source of that dynamics, the empiric results found authorize to speculate that the dynamics of some important macroeconomic variables in Brazil might be more sensitive to economic policy variability than it is usually supposed. The implication is that the ability to foresee those effects, within a significant statistical margin, can be very reduced in periods in which the dynamics of the series becomes more sensitive in relation to initial conditions; the techniques here deployed, however, suggest to be possible identify the periods where that forecast is less reliable.

A crise política do final da era Vargas: uma interpretação sob a ótica da economia política neo-institucionalista

Problemas de acao coletiva em geral nao sao passiveis de serem solucionados por negociacoes entre as partes envolvidas, requerendo a mobilizacao politica de grupos de interesses. A economia neo-institucionalista tem recentemente incluido em suas analises uma abordagem de economia politica para estudar essas situacoes, definidas como dilemas sociais. O presente trabalho objetiva mostrar como isso vem sendo feito no campo teorico, ilustrando a teoria com uma analise dos eventos dramaticos que culminaram com o suicidio de Getulio Vargas, processo este que se considera insuficientemente explicado pelas interpretacoes tradicionais.