Niangjun Chen

Distributional analysis for model predictive deferrable load control

Deferrable load control is essential for handling the uncertainties associated with the increasing penetration of renewable generation. Model predictive control has emerged as an effective approach for deferrable load control, and has received considerable attention. Though the average-case performance of model predictive deferrable load control has been analyzed in prior works, the distribution of the performance has been elusive. In this paper, we prove strong concentration results on the load variation obtained by model predictive deferrable load control. These results highlight that the typical performance of model predictive deferrable load control is tightly concentrated around the average-case performance.

Online Convex Optimization Using Predictions

Making use of predictions is a crucial, but under-explored, area of online algorithms. This paper studies a class of online optimization problems where we have external noisy predictions available. We propose a stochastic prediction error model that generalizes prior models in the learning and stochastic control communities, incorporates correlation among prediction errors, and captures the fact that predictions improve as time passes. We prove that achieving sublinear regret and constant competitive ratio for online algorithms requires the use of an unbounded prediction window in adversarial settings, but that under more realistic stochastic prediction error models it is possible to use Averaging Fixed Horizon Control (AFHC) to simultaneously achieve sublinear regret and constant competitive ratio in expectation using only a constant-sized prediction window. Furthermore, we show that the performance of AFHC is tightly concentrated around its mean.

Using Predictions in Online Optimization: Looking Forward with an Eye on the Past

We consider online convex optimization (OCO) problems with switching costs and noisy predictions. While the design of online algorithms for OCO problems has received considerable attention, the design of algorithms in the context of noisy predictions is largely open. To this point, two promising algorithms have been proposed: Receding Horizon Control (RHC) and Averaging Fixed Horizon Control (AFHC). The comparison of these policies is largely open. AFHC has been shown to provide better worst-case performance, while RHC outperforms AFHC in many realistic settings. In this paper, we introduce a new class of policies, Committed Horizon Control (CHC), that generalizes both RHC and AFHC. We provide average-case analysis and concentration results for CHC policies, yielding the first analysis of RHC for OCO problems with noisy predictions. Further, we provide explicit results characterizing the optimal CHC policy as a function of properties of the prediction noise, e.g., variance and correlation structure. Our results provide a characterization of when AFHC outperforms RHC and vice versa, as well as when other CHC policies outperform both RHC and AFHC.

Thinking Fast and Slow: Optimization Decomposition Across Timescales

Many real-world control systems, such as the smart grid and software defined networks, have decentralized components that react quickly using local information and centralized components that react slowly using a more global view. This work seeks to provide a theoretical framework for how to design controllers that are decomposed across timescales in this way. The framework is analogous to how the network utility maximization framework uses optimization decomposition to distribute a global control problem across independent controllers, each of which solves a local problem; except our goal is to decompose a global problem temporally, extracting a timescale separation. Our results highlight that decomposition of a multi-timescale controller into a fast timescale, reactive controller and a slow timescale, predictive controller can be near-optimal in a strong sense. In particular, we exhibit such a design, named Multi-timescale Reflexive Predictive Control (MRPC), which maintains a per-timestep cost within a constant factor of the offline optimal in an adversarial setting.

Opportunities for Price Manipulation by Aggregators in Electricity Markets

Aggregators of distributed generation are playing an increasingly crucial role in the integration of renewable energy in power systems. However, the intermittent nature of renewable generation makes market interactions of aggregators difficult to monitor and regulate, raising concerns about potential market manipulation by aggregators. In this paper, we study this issue by quantifying the profit an aggregator can obtain through strategic curtailment of generation in an electricity market. We show that, while the problem of maximizing the benefit from curtailment is hard in general, efficient algorithms exist when the topology of the network is radial (acyclic). Further, we highlight that significant increases in profit are possible via strategic curtailment in practical settings.