Nicholas G. Reich

Incubation periods of acute respiratory viral infections: a systematic review

Summary Knowledge of the incubation period is essential in the investigation and control of infectious disease, but statements of incubation period are often poorly referenced, inconsistent, or based on limited data. In a systematic review of the literature on nine respiratory viral infections of public-health importance, we identified 436 articles with statements of incubation period and 38 with data for pooled analysis. We fitted a log-normal distribution to pooled data and found the median incubation period to be 5·6 days (95% CI 4·8–6·3) for adenovirus, 3·2 days (95% CI 2·8–3·7) for human coronavirus, 4·0 days (95% CI 3·6–4·4) for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus, 1·4 days (95% CI 1·3–1·5) for influenza A, 0·6 days (95% CI 0·5–0·6) for influenza B, 12·5 days (95% CI 11·8–13·3) for measles, 2·6 days (95% CI 2·1–3·1) for parainfluenza, 4·4 days (95% CI 3·9–4·9) for respiratory syncytial virus, and 1·9 days (95% CI 1·4–2·4) for rhinovirus. When using the incubation period, it is important to consider its full distribution: the right tail for quarantine policy, the central regions for likely times and sources of infection, and the full distribution for models used in pandemic planning. Our estimates combine published data to give the detail necessary for these and other applications.

Outbreak of 2009 Pandemic Influenza A (H1N1) at a New York City School

BACKGROUND In April 2009, an outbreak of novel swine-origin influenza A (2009 H1N1 influenza) occurred at a high school in Queens, New York. We describe the outbreak and characterize the clinical and epidemiologic aspects of this novel virus. METHODS The New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene characterized the outbreak through laboratory confirmation of the presence of the 2009 H1N1 virus in nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal specimens and through information obtained from an online survey. Detailed information on exposure and the onset of symptoms was used to estimate the incubation period, generation time, and within-school reproductive number associated with 2009 H1N1 influenza, with the use of established techniques. RESULTS From April 24 through May 8, infection with the 2009 H1N1 virus was confirmed in 124 high-school students and employees. In responses to the online questionnaire, more than 800 students and employees (35% of student respondents and 10% of employee respondents) reported having an influenza-like illness during this period. No persons with confirmed 2009 H1N1 influenza or with influenza-like illness had severe symptoms. A linkage with travel to Mexico was identified. The estimated median incubation period for confirmed 2009 H1N1 influenza was 1.4 days (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.0 to 1.8), with symptoms developing in 95% of cases by 2.2 days (95% CI, 1.7 to 2.6). The estimated median generation time was 2.7 days (95% CI, 2.0 to 3.5). We estimate that the within-school reproductive number was 3.3. CONCLUSIONS The findings from this investigation suggest that 2009 H1N1 influenza in the high school was widespread but did not cause severe illness. The reasons for the rapid and extensive spread of influenza-like illnesses are unknown. The natural history and transmission of the 2009 H1N1 influenza virus appear to be similar to those of previously observed circulating pandemic and interpandemic influenza viruses.

An Evaluation of Environmental Decontamination With Hydrogen Peroxide Vapor for Reducing the Risk of Patient Acquisition of Multidrug-Resistant Organisms

BACKGROUND Admission to a room previously occupied by a patient with certain multidrug-resistant organisms (MDROs) increases the risk of acquisition. Traditional cleaning strategies do not remove all environmental MDROs. We evaluated the environmental and clinical impact of hydrogen peroxide vapor (HPV) room disinfection. METHODS We performed a 30-month prospective cohort intervention study on 6 high-risk units in a 994-bed tertiary care hospital. Following a 12-month preintervention phase, HPV was implemented on 3 units to decontaminate the rooms of patients known to be infected or colonized with epidemiologically important MDROs, following their discharge. Monthly environmental samples for MDROs were collected on all study units for 3 preintervention and 6 intervention months. The risk of MDRO acquisition in patients admitted to rooms decontaminated using HPV was compared with rooms disinfected using standard methods. RESULTS The prior room occupant was known to be infected or colonized with an MDRO in 22% of 6350 admissions. Patients admitted to rooms decontaminated using HPV were 64% less likely to acquire any MDRO (incidence rate ratio [IRR], 0.36; 95% confidence interval [CI], .19-.70; P < .001) and 80% less likely to acquire VRE (IRR, 0.20; 95% CI, .08-.52; P < .001) after adjusting for other factors. The risk of acquiring Clostridium difficile, methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus, and multidrug-resistant gram-negative rods individually was reduced, but not significantly. The proportion of rooms environmentally contaminated with MDROs was reduced significantly on the HPV units (relative risk, 0.65, P = .03), but not on non-HPV units. CONCLUSIONS HPV decontamination reduced environmental contamination and the risk of acquiring MDROs compared with standard cleaning protocols.

Interactions between serotypes of dengue highlight epidemiological impact of cross-immunity

Dengue, a mosquito-borne virus of humans, infects over 50 million people annually. Infection with any of the four dengue serotypes induces protective immunity to that serotype, but does not confer long-term protection against infection by other serotypes. The immunological interactions between serotypes are of central importance in understanding epidemiological dynamics and anticipating the impact of dengue vaccines. We analysed a 38-year time series with 12 197 serotyped dengue infections from a hospital in Bangkok, Thailand. Using novel mechanistic models to represent different hypothesized immune interactions between serotypes, we found strong evidence that infection with dengue provides substantial short-term cross-protection against other serotypes (approx. 1–3 years). This is the first quantitative evidence that short-term cross-protection exists since human experimental infection studies performed in the 1950s. These findings will impact strategies for designing dengue vaccine studies, future multi-strain modelling efforts, and our understanding of evolutionary pressures in multi-strain disease systems.

Daily chlorhexidine bathing to reduce bacteraemia in critically ill children: a multicentre, cluster-randomised, crossover trial

BACKGROUND Bacteraemia is an important cause of morbidity and mortality in critically ill children. Our objective was to assess whether daily bathing in chlorhexidine gluconate (CHG) compared with standard bathing practices would reduce bacteraemia in critically ill children. METHODS In an unmasked, cluster-randomised, two-period crossover trial, ten paediatric intensive-care units at five hospitals in the USA were randomly assigned a daily bathing routine for admitted patients older than 2 months, either standard bathing practices or using a cloth impregnated with 2% CHG, for a 6-month period. Units switched to the alternative bathing method for a second 6-month period. 6482 admissions were screened for eligibility. The primary outcome was an episode of bacteraemia. We did intention-to-treat (ITT) and per-protocol (PP) analyses. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (identifier NCT00549393). FINDINGS 1521 admitted patients were excluded because their length of stay was less than 2 days, and 14 refused to participate. 4947 admissions were eligible for analysis. In the ITT population, a non-significant reduction in incidence of bacteraemia was noted with CHG bathing (3·52 per 1000 days, 95% CI 2·64-4·61) compared with standard practices (4·93 per 1000 days, 3·91-6·15; adjusted incidence rate ratio [aIRR] 0·71, 95% CI 0·42-1·20). In the PP population, incidence of bacteraemia was lower in patients receiving CHG bathing (3·28 per 1000 days, 2·27-4·58) compared with standard practices (4·93 per 1000 days, 3·91-6·15; aIRR 0·64, 0·42-0·98). No serious study-related adverse events were recorded, and the incidence of CHG-associated skin reactions was 1·2 per 1000 days (95% CI 0·60-2·02). INTERPRETATION Critically ill children receiving daily CHG bathing had a lower incidence of bacteraemia compared with those receiving a standard bathing routine. Furthermore, the treatment was well tolerated. FUNDING Sage Products, US National Institutes of Health.

Central line-associated bloodstream infection in hospitalized children with peripherally inserted central venous catheters: Extending risk analyses outside the intensive care unit

BACKGROUND Increasingly, peripherally inserted central venous catheters (PICCs) are placed for prolonged intravenous access. Few data exist regarding risk factors for central line-associated bloodstream infection (CLABSI) complicating PICCs in hospitalized children, especially children hospitalized outside the intensive care unit (ICU). METHODS We identified all children with a PICC inserted at The Johns Hopkins Hospital (Baltimore, MD) from 1 January 2003 through 31 December 2009 and used Poisson regression models to identify risk factors for PICC-associated CLABSIs. RESULTS A total of 2592 PICCs were placed in 1819 children. One hundred sixteen CLABSIs occurred over 44,972 catheter-days (incidence rate [IR], 2.58 cases per 1000 catheter-days; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.07-3.00 cases per 1000 catheter-days). Independent predictors of CLABSI in the entire cohort included PICC dwell time of > 21 days (IR ratio [IRR], 1.53; 95% CI, 1.05-2.26), parenteral nutrition as indication for insertion (IRR, 2.24; 95% CI, 1.31-3.84), prior PICC-associated CLABSI (IRR, 2.48; 95% CI, 1.18-5.25), underlying metabolic condition (IRR, 2.07; 95% CI, 1.14-3.74), and pediatric ICU exposure during hospitalization (IRR, 1.80; 95% CI, 1.18-2.75). Risk factors for CLABSI in children without PICU exposure included younger age, underlying malignancy and metabolic conditions, PICCs inserted in the lower extremity, and a prior PICC-associated CLABSI. CONCLUSIONS Prolonged catheter dwell time, pediatric ICU exposure, and administration of parenteral nutrition as the indication for PICC insertion are important predictors of PICC-associated CLABSI in hospitalized children. A careful assessment of these risk factors may be important for future success in preventing CLABSIs in hospitalized children with PICCs.

Risk Factors for Peripherally Inserted Central Venous Catheter Complications in Children

IMPORTANCE Peripherally inserted central venous catheters (PICCs) are prone to infectious, thrombotic, and mechanical complications. These complications are associated with morbidity, so data are needed to inform quality improvement efforts. OBJECTIVES To characterize the epidemiology of and to identify risk factors for complications necessitating removal of PICCs in children. DESIGN Cohort study. SETTING Johns Hopkins Childrens Center, Baltimore, Maryland. PARTICIPANTS Hospitalized children who had a PICC inserted outside of the neonatal intensive care unit (ICU) from January 1, 2003, through December 31, 2009. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Complications necessitating PICC removal as recorded by the PICC Team. RESULTS During the study period, 2574 PICCs were placed in 1807 children. Complications necessitating catheter removal occurred in 534 PICCs (20.8%) during 46 021 catheter-days (11.6 complications per 1000 catheter-days). These included accidental dislodgement (4.6%), infection (4.3%), occlusion (3.7%), local infiltration (3.0%), leakage (1.5%), breakage (1.4%), phlebitis (1.2%), and thrombosis (0.5%). From 2003 to 2009, complications decreased by 15% per year (incidence rate ratio [IRR], 0.85; 95% CI, 0.81-0.89). In adjusted analysis, all noncentral PICC tip locations-midline (IRR 4.59, 95% CI, 3.69-5.69), midclavicular (2.15; 1.54-2.98), and other (3.26; 1.72-6.15)-compared with central tip location were associated with an increased risk of complications. Pediatric ICU exposure and age younger than 1 year were independently associated with complications necessitating PICC removal. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Noncentral PICC tip locations, younger age, and pediatric ICU exposure were independent risk factors for complications necessitating PICC removal. Despite reductions in PICC complications, further efforts are needed to prevent PICC-associated complications in children.

Catheter Dwell Time and CLABSIs in Neonates With PICCs: A Multicenter Cohort Study

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether the daily risk of central line–associated bloodstream infections (CLABSIs) increases over the dwell time of peripherally inserted central catheters (PICCs) in high-risk neonates. METHODS: Multicenter retrospective cohort including NICU patients with a PICC inserted between January 2005 and June 2010. We calculated incidence rates and used Poisson regression models to assess the risk of developing CLABSI as a function of PICC dwell time. RESULTS: A total of 4797 PICCs placed in 3967 neonates were included; 149 CLABSIs occurred over 89 946 catheter-days (incidence rate 1.66 per 1000 catheter-days). In unadjusted analysis, PICCs with a dwell time of 8 to 13 days, 14 to 22 days, and ≥23 days each had an increased risk of infection compared with PICCs in place for ≤7 days (P < .05). In adjusted analysis, the average predicted daily risk of CLABSIs after PICC insertion increased during the first 2 weeks after PICC insertion and remained elevated for the dwell time of the catheter. There was an increased risk of CLABSIs in neonates with concurrent PICCs (adjusted incidence rate ratio 2.04, 1.12–3.71). The incidence of Gram-negative CLABSIs was greater in PICCs with dwell times >50 days (incidence rate ratio 5.26, 2.40–10.66). CONCLUSIONS: The risk of CLABSIs increased during the 2 weeks after PICC insertion and then remained elevated until PICC removal. Clinicians should review PICC necessity daily, optimize catheter maintenance practices, and investigate novel CLABSI prevention strategies in PICCs with prolonged dwell times.

Dried Whole Plant Artemisia annua as an Antimalarial Therapy

Drugs are primary weapons for reducing malaria in human populations. However emergence of resistant parasites has repeatedly curtailed the lifespan of each drug that is developed and deployed. Currently the most effective anti-malarial is artemisinin, which is extracted from the leaves of Artemisia annua. Due to poor pharmacokinetic properties and prudent efforts to curtail resistance to monotherapies, artemisinin is prescribed only in combination with other anti-malarials composing an Artemisinin Combination Therapy (ACT). Low yield in the plant, and the added cost of secondary anti-malarials in the ACT, make artemisinin costly for the developing world. As an alternative, we compared the efficacy of oral delivery of the dried leaves of whole plant (WP) A. annua to a comparable dose of pure artemisinin in a rodent malaria model (Plasmodium chabaudi). We found that a single dose of WP (containing 24 mg/kg artemisinin) reduces parasitemia more effectively than a comparable dose of purified drug. This increased efficacy may result from a documented 40-fold increase in the bioavailability of artemisinin in the blood of mice fed the whole plant, in comparison to those administered synthetic drug. Synergistic benefits may derive from the presence of other anti-malarial compounds in A. annua. If shown to be clinically efficacious, well-tolerated, and compatible with the public health imperative of forestalling evolution of drug resistance, inexpensive, locally grown and processed A. annua might prove to be an effective addition to the global effort to reduce malaria morbidity and mortality.

Dried whole-plant Artemisia annua slows evolution of malaria drug resistance and overcomes resistance to artemisinin

Significance Evolution of malaria parasite drug resistance has thwarted efforts to control this deadly disease. Use of drug combinations has been proposed to slow that evolution. Artemisinin is a favorite drug in the global war on malaria and is frequently used in combination therapies. Here we show that using the whole plant (Artemisia annua) from which artemisinin is derived can overcome parasite resistance and is actually more resilient to evolution of parasite resistance; i.e., parasites take longer to evolve resistance, thus increasing the effective life span of the therapy. Pharmaceutical monotherapies against human malaria have proven effective, although ephemeral, owing to the inevitable evolution of resistant parasites. Resistance to two or more drugs delivered in combination will evolve more slowly; hence combination therapies have become the preferred norm in the fight against malaria. At the forefront of these efforts has been the promotion of Artemisinin Combination Therapy, but despite these efforts, resistance to artemisinin has begun to emerge. In 2012, we demonstrated the efficacy of the whole plant (WP)—not a tea, not an infusion—as a malaria therapy and found it to be more effective than a comparable dose of pure artemisinin in a rodent malaria model. Here we show that WP overcomes existing resistance to pure artemisinin in the rodent malaria Plasmodium yoelii. Moreover, in a long-term artificial selection for resistance in Plasmodium chabaudi, we tested resilience of WP against drug resistance in comparison with pure artemisinin (AN). Stable resistance to WP was achieved three times more slowly than stable resistance to AN. WP treatment proved even more resilient than the double dose of AN. The resilience of WP may be attributable to the evolutionary refinement of the plant’s secondary metabolic products into a redundant, multicomponent defense system. Efficacy and resilience of WP treatment against rodent malaria provides compelling reasons to further explore the role of nonpharmaceutical forms of AN to treat human malaria.