Nicholas Oulton

Must the Growth Rate Decline? Baumol's Unbalanced Growth Revisited

According to Baumols model of unbalanced growth, if resources are shifting towards industries where productivity is growing relatively slowly, the aggregate productivity growth rate will slow down. This conclusion is often applied to the advanced industrial economies, where resources are indeed shifting towards the relatively stagnant service industries. This paper shows that Baumols conclusion only follows if the stagnant industries produce final products. This is important empirically, since the most rapidly expanding service industries are those such as financial and business services, which are large producers of intermediate products. Even if such industries are stagnant, it is shown that a movement of resources into them may be associated with rising, not falling, aggregate productivity growth.

Capital Stocks, Capital Services, and Depreciation: An Integrated Framework

Neo-classical theory provides an integrated framework by means of which we can measure capital stocks, capital services and depreciation. In this paper the theory is set out and reviewed. It is found that the theory is quite robust and can deal with assets like computers that are subject to rapid obsolescence. Using the framework, estimates are presented of aggregate wealth, aggregate capital services and aggregate depreciation for the United Kingdom between 1979 Q1 and 2002 Q2, and the results are tested for sensitivity to the assumptions. The principal source of uncertainty in estimating capital stocks and capital services is found to relate to the treatment and measurement of investment in computers and software. Applying US methods for these assets to UK data has a substantial effect on the growth rate of capital services and on the ratio of depreciation to GDP.

EX POST VERSUS EX ANTE MEASURES OF THE USER COST OF CAPITAL

When doing growth accounting, should we use ex post or ex ante measures of user costs to calculate the contribution of capital? The answer, based on a simple model of temporary equilibrium, is that ex post is better in theory. In practice researchers usually calculate ex post user costs by assuming that the rate of return is equalised across assets. But this is only true if expectations are correct. A numerical example shows that either ex ante or ex post can be closer to the true measure, depending on the parameters. I propose a hybrid method that makes use of elements of both approaches. I test this and the other methods using data for 31 UK industries.

Productivity Versus Welfare: Or GDP Versus Weitzman's Ndp

While GDP is the appropriate measure of output, I argue that Weitzmans NDP (WNDP)—nominal net domestic product deflated by the price of consumption—is the appropriate measure of welfare. Total factor productivity (TFP) growth measures the shift in the GDP frontier, and there is an analogous concept for WNDP, which I call total factor welfare (TFW) growth. I calculate and compare WNDP and GDP, and TFP and TFW, for the United States in the 1990s. I find that the acceleration of WNDP post 1995 was as great as that of GDP, even though the aggregate depreciation rate was rising.

Supply Side Reform and UK Economic Growth: What Happened To The Miracle?

Two institutions have retarded UK productivity growth in the post-war period: industrial relations and education. The failings of both were largely addressed in the 1980s. The productivity improvement of the 1980s was genuine and was largely due to the reduction in union power brought about by the trade union legislation of the 1980s. The 1980s and 1990s have also seen large falls in the proportion of the labour force which is unqualified and rises in enrolment rates in further and higher education, changes which tend to increase long-run growth. But two factors have obscured the extent o f the improvement. First, the whole climate for economic growth is less favourable than it was in the so-called Golden Age prior to the first oil shock in 1973. Second, UK macroeconomic policy compares poorly with other OECD countries: booms have been shorter and recessions longer, so that microeconomic success has been masked by macroeconomic failure.

Labour Productivity in Uk Manufacturing in the 1970s and I N the 1980s

What accounts for the productivity improvement experienced in manufacturing since 1979? Answers to this question are sought from a regression analysis of 93 manufacturing industries over the period 1971-86. The main findings are that when other influences, such as raw material prices and the shock of the 1980-1 recession, are eliminated, there has been an improvement in the 1980s in the growth rate of productivity whose impact effect averaged 4 per cent per annum. Between a quarter and a half of this is attributable to a decline in the disadvantages of unionisation.

Total Factor Productivity Growth and the Role of Externalities

This paper argues that the greater part of economic growth can be accounted for by the accumulation of human and physical capital. The role of externalities is relatively small. This view is defended by reviewing the most sophisticated growth accounting studies and also by presenting some new evidence on the growth of total factor productivity in 53 countries over the period 1965 to 1990.

Modelling investment when relative prices are trending: theory and evidence for the United Kingdom

In recent work, Stacey Tevlin and Karl Whelan argue that aggregate econometric models fail to capture the US investment boom in plant and machinery in the second half of the 1990s, whereas a disaggregated approach does much better. In particular, they show that aggregate models do not capture the increase in replacement investment associated with compositional shifts in the capital stock towards high depreciation rate assets, such as computers. And aggregate models invariably find little or no role for the real user cost, so do not pick up the strong effects of relative price declines on investment in computers. In this paper, a data set for the United Kingdom is constructed in order to investigate the ability of different equations to account for the UK boom in plant and machinery investment in the second half of the 1990s. The findings are similar to those of Tevlin and Whelan, whose analysis is extended in two main ways. First, the failure of the aggregate equations is explained more formally in terms of misspecification when relative prices are trending downwards. Second, the econometric analysis is conducted in a formal cointegration framework. As in the United States, the paper shows that asset-level equations can explain the investment boom in plant and machinery in the second half of the 1990s in the United Kingdom, whereas the aggregate equation fails completely.

Market services: productivity benchmarks for the UK

This paper presents comparisons of labor productivity (value added per hour worked) in market services for the United Kingdom, the United States, France, and Germany in 1993. Market services, defined as (1) distribution, hotels and catering; (2) transport and communications; and (3) finance, insurance, and real estate, make up 34-43 percent of total employment in the four countries. For productivity in market services overall, the United States led the United Kingdom by 35 percent in 1993, Germany led the United Kingdom by 34 percent, and France led the United Kingdom by 36 percent. The U.K. productivity shortfall vis-a-vis Germany and France was wider in market services than in manufacturing. Copyright 1998 by Blackwell Publishing Ltd

Rates of return and alternative measures of capital input: 14 countries and 10 branches, 1971-2005

We employ the EU KLEMS database to estimate the real rate of return to capital in 14 countries (11 in the EU, three outside the EU) in 10 branches of the market economy plus the market economy as a whole. Our measure of capital is an aggregate over seven types of asset: three ICT assets (computers, communications equipment, and software) and four non-ICT assets (machinery and equipment, nonresidential structures, transport equipment, and other). The real rate of return in the market economy does not vary very much across countries, with the exception of Spain where it is exceptionally high and in Italy where it is exceptionally low. The real rate appears to be trendless in most countries. Within each country however, the rate varies widely across the 10 branches, often being implausibly high or low. We also estimate the growth of capital services by two different methods: ex-post and exante, and the contribution of capital to output growth by three methods: ex-post, ex-ante and hybrid. Our implementation of the ex-ante method uses an estimate of the required rate of return for each country instead of the actual, average rate of return to calculate user costs and also employs the expected growth of asset prices rather than the actual growth. These estimates are derived from exactly the same data as for the ex-post method, ie without any extraneous data being employed. For estimating the contribution of capital to output growth, the ex-ante method uses ex-ante profit as the weight, while both the ex-post and the hybrid method use ex-post profit. We find that the three methods produce very similar results at the market economy level. But differences are much larger at the branch level, particularly between the ex-post and ex-ante methods.