Nicholas R. Golledge

The multi-millennial Antarctic commitment to future sea-level rise

Atmospheric warming is projected to increase global mean surface temperatures by 0.3 to 4.8 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial values by the end of this century. If anthropogenic emissions continue unchecked, the warming increase may reach 8–10 degrees Celsius by 2300 (ref. 2). The contribution that large ice sheets will make to sea-level rise under such warming scenarios is difficult to quantify because the equilibrium-response timescale of ice sheets is longer than those of the atmosphere or ocean. Here we use a coupled ice-sheet/ice-shelf model to show that if atmospheric warming exceeds 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius above present, collapse of the major Antarctic ice shelves triggers a centennial- to millennial-scale response of the Antarctic ice sheet in which enhanced viscous flow produces a long-term commitment (an unstoppable contribution) to sea-level rise. Our simulations represent the response of the present-day Antarctic ice-sheet system to the oceanic and climatic changes of four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) from the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We find that substantial Antarctic ice loss can be prevented only by limiting greenhouse gas emissions to RCP 2.6 levels. Higher-emissions scenarios lead to ice loss from Antarctic that will raise sea level by 0.6–3 metres by the year 2300. Our results imply that greenhouse gas emissions in the next few decades will strongly influence the long-term contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to global sea level.

Antarctic contribution to meltwater pulse 1A from reduced Southern Ocean overturning

During the last glacial termination, the upwelling strength of the southern polar limb of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation varied, changing the ventilation and stratification of the high-latitude Southern Ocean. During the same period, at least two phases of abrupt global sea-level rise--meltwater pulses--took place. Although the timing and magnitude of these events have become better constrained, a causal link between ocean stratification, the meltwater pulses and accelerated ice loss from Antarctica has not been proven. Here we simulate Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the last 25 kyr using a data-constrained ice-sheet model forced by changes in Southern Ocean temperature from an Earth system model. Results reveal several episodes of accelerated ice-sheet recession, the largest being coincident with meltwater pulse 1A. This resulted from reduced Southern Ocean overturning following Heinrich Event 1, when warmer subsurface water thermally eroded grounded marine-based ice and instigated a positive feedback that further accelerated ice-sheet retreat.

Dynamics of the last glacial maximum Antarctic ice-sheet and its response to ocean forcing

Retreat of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) Antarctic ice sheet is thought to have been initiated by changes in ocean heat and eustatic sea level propagated from the Northern Hemisphere (NH) as northern ice sheets melted under rising atmospheric temperatures. The extent to which spatial variability in ice dynamics may have modulated the resultant pattern and timing of decay of the Antarctic ice sheet has so far received little attention, however, despite the growing recognition that dynamic effects account for a sizeable proportion of mass-balance changes observed in modern ice sheets. Here we use a 5-km resolution whole-continent numerical ice-sheet model to assess whether differences in the mechanisms governing ice sheet flow could account for discrepancies between geochronological studies in different parts of the continent. We first simulate the geometry and flow characteristics of an equilibrium LGM ice sheet, using pan-Antarctic terrestrial and marine geological data for constraint, then perturb the system with sea level and ocean heat flux increases to investigate ice-sheet vulnerability. Our results identify that fast-flowing glaciers in the eastern Weddell Sea, the Amundsen Sea, central Ross Sea, and in the Amery Trough respond most rapidly to ocean forcings, in agreement with empirical data. Most significantly, we find that although ocean warming and sea-level rise bring about mainly localized glacier acceleration, concomitant drawdown of ice from neighboring areas leads to widespread thinning of entire glacier catchments—a discovery that has important ramifications for the dynamic changes presently being observed in modern ice sheets.

Repeated large-scale retreat and advance of Totten Glacier indicated by inland bed erosion

Climate variations cause ice sheets to retreat and advance, raising or lowering sea level by metres to decametres. The basic relationship is unambiguous, but the timing, magnitude and sources of sea-level change remain unclear; in particular, the contribution of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) is ill defined, restricting our appreciation of potential future change. Several lines of evidence suggest possible collapse of the Totten Glacier into interior basins during past warm periods, most notably the Pliocene epoch, causing several metres of sea-level rise. However, the structure and long-term evolution of the ice sheet in this region have been understood insufficiently to constrain past ice-sheet extents. Here we show that deep ice-sheet erosion—enough to expose basement rocks—has occurred in two regions: the head of the Totten Glacier, within 150 kilometres of today’s grounding line; and deep within the Sabrina Subglacial Basin, 350–550 kilometres from this grounding line. Our results, based on ICECAP aerogeophysical data, demarcate the marginal zones of two distinct quasi-stable EAIS configurations, corresponding to the ‘modern-scale’ ice sheet (with a marginal zone near the present ice-sheet margin) and the retreated ice sheet (with the marginal zone located far inland). The transitional region of 200–250 kilometres in width is less eroded, suggesting shorter-lived exposure to eroding conditions during repeated retreat–advance events, which are probably driven by ocean-forced instabilities. Representative ice-sheet models indicate that the global sea-level increase resulting from retreat in this sector can be up to 0.9 metres in the modern-scale configuration, and exceeds 2 metres in the retreated configuration.

Antarctic ice sheet sensitivity to atmospheric CO2 variations in the early to mid-Miocene

Significance New information from the ANDRILL-2A drill core and a complementary ice sheet modeling study show that polar climate and Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) margins were highly dynamic during the early to mid-Miocene. Changes in extent of the AIS inferred by these studies suggest that high southern latitudes were sensitive to relatively small changes in atmospheric CO2 (between 280 and 500 ppm). Importantly, reconstructions through intervals of peak warmth indicate that the AIS retreated beyond its terrestrial margin under atmospheric CO2 conditions that were similar to those projected for the coming centuries. Geological records from the Antarctic margin offer direct evidence of environmental variability at high southern latitudes and provide insight regarding ice sheet sensitivity to past climate change. The early to mid-Miocene (23–14 Mya) is a compelling interval to study as global temperatures and atmospheric CO2 concentrations were similar to those projected for coming centuries. Importantly, this time interval includes the Miocene Climatic Optimum, a period of global warmth during which average surface temperatures were 3–4 °C higher than today. Miocene sediments in the ANDRILL-2A drill core from the Western Ross Sea, Antarctica, indicate that the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) was highly variable through this key time interval. A multiproxy dataset derived from the core identifies four distinct environmental motifs based on changes in sedimentary facies, fossil assemblages, geochemistry, and paleotemperature. Four major disconformities in the drill core coincide with regional seismic discontinuities and reflect transient expansion of grounded ice across the Ross Sea. They correlate with major positive shifts in benthic oxygen isotope records and generally coincide with intervals when atmospheric CO2 concentrations were at or below preindustrial levels (∼280 ppm). Five intervals reflect ice sheet minima and air temperatures warm enough for substantial ice mass loss during episodes of high (∼500 ppm) atmospheric CO2. These new drill core data and associated ice sheet modeling experiments indicate that polar climate and the AIS were highly sensitive to relatively small changes in atmospheric CO2 during the early to mid-Miocene.

THE LAST GLACIATION OF SHETLAND, NORTH ATLANTIC

Abstract. Evidence relating to the extent, dynamics, and relative chronology of the last glaciation of the Shetland Islands, North Atlantic, is presented here, in an attempt to better illuminate some of the controversies that still surround the glacial history of the archipelago. We appraise previous interpretations and compare these earlier results with new evidence gleaned from the interpretation of a high resolution digital terrain model and from field reconnaissance. By employing a landsystems approach, we identify and describe three quite different assemblages of landscape features across the main islands of Mainland, Yell and Unst. Using the spatial interrelationship of these landsystems, an assessment of their constituent elements, and comparisons with similar features in other glaciated environments, we propose a simple model for the last glaciation of Shetland. During an early glacial phase, a coalescent British and Scandinavian ice sheet flowed approximately east to west across Shetland. The terrestrial land‐forms created by this ice sheet in the north of Shetland suggest that it had corridors of relatively fast‐flowing ice that were partially directed by bed topography, and that subsequent deglaciation was interrupted by at least one major stillstand. Evidence in the south of Shetland indicates the growth of a local ice cap of restricted extent that fed numerous radial outlet glaciers during, or after, ice‐sheet deglaciation. Whilst the absolute age of these three landsystems remains uncertain, these new geo‐morphological and palaeoglaciological insights reconcile many of the ideas of earlier workers, and allow wider speculation regarding the dynamics of the former British ice sheet.

East Antarctic ice sheet most vulnerable to Weddell Sea warming

Models predict considerable spatial variability in the magnitude of future climate change around Antarctica, suggesting that some sectors of the continent may be more affected by these changes than others. Furthermore, the geometry of the bedrock topography underlying the East and West Antarctic ice sheets, together with regional differences in ice thickness, mean that certain ice drainage basins may respond more or less sensitively to environmental forcings. Here we use an ensemble of idealized climates to drive ice-sheet simulations that explore regional and continental-scale thresholds, allowing us to identify a hierarchy of catchment vulnerabilities based on differences in long-term catchment-averaged ice loss. Considering this hierarchy in the context of recent observations and climate scenarios forecast for 2100 CE, we conclude that the majority of future ice loss from East Antarctica, both this century and over subsequent millennia, will likely come from the Recovery subglacial basin in the eastern Weddell Sea.

Mass balance, flow, and subglacial processes of a modelled Younger Dryas ice cap in Scotland

We use an empirically validated high-resolution three-dimensional ice-sheet model to investigate the mass-balance regime, flow mechanisms and subglacial characteristics of a simulated Younger Dryas Stadial ice cap in Scotland, and compare the resulting model forecasts with geological evidence. Input data for the model are basal topography, a temperature forcing derived from GRIP δ 18 O fluctuations and a precipitation distribution interpolated from modern data. The model employs a positive-degree-day scheme to calculate net mass balance within a domain of 112 500 km 2 , which, under the imposed climate, gives rise to an elongate ice cap along the axis of the western Scottish Highlands. At its maximum, the ice cap is dynamically and thermally zoned, reflecting topographic and climatic con- trols, respectively. In order to link these palaeoglaciological conditions to geological interpretations, we calculate the relative balance between sliding and creep within the simulated ice cap, forecast areas of the ice cap with the greatest capacity for basal erosion and predict the likely pattern of subglacial drain- age. We conclude that ice flow in central areas of the ice cap is largely due to internal deformation, and is associated with geological evidence of landscape preservation. Conversely, the distribution of stream- lined landforms is linked to faster-flowing ice whose velocity is predominantly the result of basal sliding. The geometry of the main ice mass focuses subglacial erosion in the mid-sections of topographic troughs, and produces glaciohydraulic gradients that favour subglacial drainage through low-order arterial routes.

The Loch Lomond Stadial glaciation south of Rannoch Moor: New evidence and palaeoglaciological insights

Abstract The mountains and valleys south of Rannoch Moor were of key importance in governing both the style and direction of ice flow during the Loch Lomond Stadial (LLS), and yet have, until now, received limited attention from glacial researchers. New evidence, based on recent geological mapping of the area, shows that a landform‐sediment assemblage exists that, at least in part, pre‐dates the Loch Lomond Stadial. This last glacial episode was therefore characterised by very limited glacial erosion in this area, and in fact favoured landscape preservation. Geological and geomorphological data suggest that the former LLS ice cap flowed largely by meltwater‐lubrkated sliding on rigid beds, with deformation of unconsolidated basal substrate occurring only where pre‐existing sediments were overridden.

Antarctic marine ice-sheet retreat in the Ross Sea during the early Holocene

Geological constraints on the timing of retreat of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) Antarctic Ice Sheets provide critical insights into the processes controlling marine-based ice-sheet retreat. The over-deepened, landward-sloping bathymetry of Antarcticas continental shelves is an ideal configuration for marine ice-sheet instability, with the potential for past and future ice-sheet collapse and accelerated sea-level rise. However, the chronology of retreat of the LGM ice sheet in the Ross Sea is largely constrained by imprecise radiocarbon chronology of bulk marine sediments or by coastal records that offer more reliable dating techniques but which may be influenced by local piedmont glaciers derived from East Antarctic outlet glaciers. Consequently, these coastal records may be ambiguous in the broader context of retreat in the central regions of the Ross Sea. Here, we present a sedimentary facies succession and foraminifera-based radiocarbon chronology from within the Ross Sea embayment that indicates glacial retreat and open-marine conditions to the east of Ross Island before 8.6 cal. (calibrated) kyr B.P., at least 1 k.y. earlier than indicated by terrestrial records in McMurdo Sound. Comparing these data to new modeling experiments, we hypothesize that marine-based ice-sheet retreat was triggered by oceanic forcings along most of the Pacific Ocean coastline of Antarctica, but continued Holocene retreat into the inner shelf region of the Ross Sea occurred primarily as a consequence of bathymetric controls on marine ice-sheet instability.