Nicholas Siler

How will orographic precipitation respond to surface warming? An idealized thermodynamic perspective

Future changes in orographic precipitation will have important consequences for societies and ecosystems near mountain ranges. Here we use a simple numerical model to evaluate the response of orographic precipitation to surface warming under idealized conditions representative of the strongest orographic storms. We find an upward shift in the pattern of condensation with warming, caused by larger fractional changes in condensation at low temperature and amplified warming aloft. As a result, the distribution of precipitation shifts downwind, causing larger fractional changes in precipitation on the lee slope than on the windward slope. Total precipitation is found to increase by a smaller fraction than near-surface water vapor, in contrast to expected changes in other types of extreme precipitation. Factors limiting the increase in orographic precipitation include the pattern of windward ascent, leeside evaporation, and thermodynamic constraints on the change in condensation with temperature.

On the Dynamical Causes of Variability in the Rain-Shadow Effect: A Case Study of the Washington Cascades

AbstractWashington State’s Cascade Mountains exhibit a strong orographic rain shadow, with much wetter western slopes than eastern slopes due to prevailing westerly flow during the winter storm season. There is significant interannual variability in the magnitude of this rain-shadow effect, however, which has important consequences for water resource management, especially where water is a critically limited resource east of the crest. Here the influence of the large-scale circulation on the Cascade rain shadow is investigated using observations from the Snowfall Telemetry (SNOTEL) monitoring network, supplemented by stream gauge measurements. Two orthogonal indices are introduced as a basis set for representing variability in wintertime Cascade precipitation. First, the total precipitation index is a measure of regionwide precipitation and explains the majority of the variance in wintertime precipitation everywhere. Second, the rain-shadow index is a measure of the east–west precipitation gradient. It ex...

Assessing the Impact of the Tropopause on Mountain Waves and Orographic Precipitation Using Linear Theory and Numerical Simulations

AbstractThe partial reflection of mountain waves at the tropopause has been studied extensively for its contribution to downslope windstorms, but its impact on orographic precipitation has not been addressed. Here linear theory and numerical simulations are used to investigate how the tropopause affects the vertical structure of mountain waves and, in turn, orographic precipitation. Relative to the no-tropopause case, wave-induced ascent above the windward slope of a two-dimensional ridge is found to be enhanced or diminished depending on the ratio of the tropopause height to the vertical wavelength of the mountain waves—defined here as the “nondimensional tropopause height” . In idealized simulations of flow over both two-dimensional and three-dimensional ridges, variations in are found to modulate the precipitation rate by roughly a factor of 2 under typical atmospheric conditions. The sensitivity of precipitation to is related primarily to the depth of windward ascent but also to the location and stren...

The interplay of internal and forced modes of Hadley Cell expansion: lessons from the global warming hiatus

The poleward branches of the Hadley Cells and the edge of the tropics show a robust poleward shift during the satellite era, leading to concerns over the possible encroachment of the globe’s subtropical dry zones into currently temperate climates. The extent to which this trend is caused by anthropogenic forcing versus internal variability remains the subject of considerable debate. In this study, we use a Joint EOF method to identify two distinct modes of tropical width variability: (1) an anthropogenically-forced mode, which we identify using a 20-member simulation of the historical climate, and (2) an internal mode, which we identify using a 1000-year pre-industrial control simulation. The forced mode is found to be closely related to the top of the atmosphere radiative imbalance and exhibits a long-term trend since 1860, while the internal mode is essentially indistinguishable from the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Together these two modes explain an average of 70% of the interannual variability seen in model “edge indices” over the historical period. Since 1980, the superposition of forced and internal modes has resulted in a period of accelerated Hadley Cell expansion and decelerated global warming (i.e., the “hiatus”). A comparison of the change in these modes since 1980 indicates that by 2013 the signal has emerged above the noise of internal variability in the Southern Hemisphere, but not in the Northern Hemisphere, with the latter also exhibiting strong zonal asymmetry, particularly in the North Atlantic. Our results highlight the important interplay of internal and forced modes of tropical width change and improve our understanding of the interannual variability and long-term trend seen in observations.

Tropical Ocean Contributions to California’s Surprisingly Dry El Niño of 2015/16

AbstractThe major El Nino of 2015/16 brought significantly less precipitation to California than previous events of comparable strength, much to the disappointment of residents suffering through the state’s fourth consecutive year of severe drought. Here, California’s weak precipitation in 2015/16 relative to previous major El Nino events is investigated within a 40-member ensemble of atmosphere-only simulations run with historical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and constant radiative forcing. The simulations reveal significant differences in both California precipitation and the large-scale atmospheric circulation between 2015/16 and previous strong El Nino events, which are similar to (albeit weaker than) the differences found in observations. Principal component analysis indicates that these ensemble-mean differences were likely related to a pattern of tropical SST variability with a strong signal in the Indian Ocean and western Pacific and a weaker signal in the eastern equatorial Pacific and subtrop...

What Causes Weak Orographic Rain Shadows? Insights from Case Studies in the Cascades and Idealized Simulations

AbstractRecent studies have shown that weak rain shadows in the Cascade Mountains are associated with passing warm fronts, but the specific mechanisms responsible for this connection have eluded consensus. One theory holds that weak rain shadows are the result of enhanced precipitation over eastern slopes caused by easterly upslope flow; the other suggests that condensation is produced primarily over the western slopes, with enhanced east-slope precipitation occurring in dynamical regimes that minimize descent and evaporation east of the crest. Here these mechanisms are investigated through numerical simulations involving both real and idealized topography. Consistent with the second theory, storms with weak rain shadows are found to exhibit much weaker mountain waves in the lee of the Cascades than storms with strong rain shadows, with correspondingly weaker leeside evaporation. The muted wave activity during weak-rain-shadow storms is found to be caused by cold, zonally stagnant air at low levels in the...

Variability in modeled cloud feedback tied to differences in the climatological spatial pattern of clouds

Despite the increasing sophistication of climate models, the amount of surface warming expected from a doubling of atmospheric CO

Sources of Uncertainty in the Meridional Pattern of Climate Change

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