Nicholas Tsounis

The effects of exchange rate volatility on sectoral exports evidence from Sweden, UK, and Germany

This paper examines the effect of exchange rate volatility for a set of three European countries, Germany, Sweden and the UK, on sectoral exports for the period 1973 q1-2010 q4. In addition to the standard deviation of moving average of the logarithm of the exchange rate, a new measure capturing unexpected fluctuation of the exchange rate is examined using the autoregressive distributed lags (ARDL) modelling for co-integration. The results suggest that there exist a long-run co-integrating relationship between the exchange rate volatility and the level of exports for the sectors examined, in the UK and Germany, but it does not have an effect on the exports of Sweden.

A New Approach for Measuring Volatility of the Exchange rate

This paper examines the effect of exchange rate volatility for a set of three European countries, Germany, Sweden and the U.K., to sectoral exports during the period of 1973 q1-2010 q4. It is often claimed by some researchers that exchange rate volatility causes a reduction in the overall level of trade. Empirical researchers often utilize the standard deviation of the moving average of the logarithm of the exchange rate as a measure of exchange rate fluctuation. In this study we propose a new measure for volatility. Overall our results have suggested significant negative effects from volatility to exports.

Exchange Rate Volatility and Aggregate Exports: Evidence from Two Small Countries

This paper examines the effect of exchange rate volatility for two small countries, Croatia and Cyprus, on aggregate exports during the period of first quarter of 1990 to first quarter of 2012. It is claimed by some researchers that exchange rate volatility causes a reduction on the overall level of trade. Empirical researchers often utilize the standard deviation of the moving average of the logarithm of the exchange rate as a measure of exchange rate fluctuation. In this study, we propose a new measure for volatility. Overall, our results suggest that there is a positive effect of volatility on exports of Croatia and Cyprus.

Exchange Rate Volatility and Foreign Trade: The Case for Cyprus and Croatia

Abstract This paper examines the effect of exchange rate volatility for a set of two countries, Croatia and Cyprus on sectoral exports during the period of 1990: q1-2012:q1. It is claimed by some researchers that exchange rate volatility causes a reduction on the overall level of trade. Empirical researchers often utilize the standard deviation of the moving average of the logarithm of the exchange rate as a measure of exchange rate fluctuation. In this study we propose a new measure for volatility. Overall our results have suggested significant negative effects from volatility on exports for one country in our sample.

The effects of exchange rate volatility on tourist flows: evidence from the UK and Sweden

Exchange rate volatility (ERV) affects international tourist flows either by affecting the choices of the potential traveller or the actions of the tourism intermediaries. In this study, we examine the relationship between tourist arrivals and ERV for the UK and Sweden. Our results show that there is a negative relationship between ERV and tourist flows into the two countries suggesting that potential travellers and tour operators react to changes of the exchange rate. Direct policy implications are: policy makers should consider the effects of ERV when designing tourism policy, i.e. countries with substantial tourist inflows from a diversified range of international markets should avoid the opening up of markets that may be exposed to disturbances that could result to ERV. Further, a country relying heavily on its tourism industry, should avoid using exchange rate policies in order to correct its international competiveness, as these policies may end up to an ERV that could reduce substantially its tourism inflows.

Does Exchange Rate Variation Effect African Trade Flows

Abstract This paper examines the effect of exchange rate volatility for a set of three African countries: Malawi, Morocco and South Africa to aggregate exports during the period of 1973: q1-1990:q1. It is claimed by some researchers that exchange rate volatility causes a reduction on the overall level of trade. Empirical researchers often utilize the standard deviation of the moving average of the logarithm of the exchange rate as a measure of exchange rate fluctuation. In this study we propose a new measure for volatility. Overall our results have suggested significant negative effects from volatility on exports for all the countries in our sample when a measure of unexpected fluctuation was used.

Modeling Regional Employment. An Application in High Technology Sectors in Greece

Mathematical models of competing species defined by ordinary differential equations are considered to construct a model for analysing the spatial dimension of employment. Analysis of the points of equilibrium is given in an application of the model using data on employment in High Technology Sectors (HTS), for the period 1999-2008, for Greece. The findings suggest that there is tendency of movement in employees in HTS in Greece from the Attica region to the Rest of Greece. In the long-run equilibrium it was found that the employment in Attica will be between the levels of 2007 and 2008 while it will increase in the periphery of Greece.

Studying from Home? Do Private and Public Benefits Go Side by Side?

The objective of this paper is to compare the average annual and total cost of obtaining a university degree in three different universities: an Open and Distance Learning university serving lifelong learning purposes and two conventional universities in Greece. Our findings show substantial differences in average annual costs (per student) among these three universities with the Open and Distance Learning University (Hellenic Open University-HOU) having both the lowest annual average private and university cost. Consequently, HOU has the lowest average social cost. Moreover, comparing the total private cost for obtaining a university degree, the lowest cost is in the HOU despite its longer period of studies. This raises expectation to perspective students of HOU for higher rates of return after graduation. A similar pattern, also, holds for the social cost showing that HOU is socially cost effective. Clearly, our findings suggest that an Open and Distance Learning University that serves lifelong learning purposes is a cost effective investment in creating human capital privately and socially.

Gender wage gaps and economic crisis in Greece

ABSTRACT We examine gender wage gap (GWG) in Greece for 2013, by using a survey data set. Our findings show first, that the unadjusted GWG is 15.3%, while European Commission reports a value of 15%. Secondly, we derive the ‘adjusted’ GWG, using the Oaxaca and Ransom (OR) and the Juhn, Murphy and Pierce (JMP) methods to be ranging from 10% to 13.6%. Thirdly, looking into the behaviour of the full population, we find a decreasing trend for the discrimination effects, an increasing trend for the residuals effects and a ‘random’ endowments effects while moving to higher deciles. These three effects are associated to the economic crisis 2008–2015. Fourthly, our findings do not show evidence of either a ‘glass ceiling’ effect or a ‘sticky floor’ effect. Finally, that there is strong evidence that investing in higher education reduces the wage discrimination between sexes.

Short- and Long-Run Determinants of Tourist Flows: The Case of South Korea

This paper examines the effect of Exchange Rate Volatility for South Korea, on tourist arrivals exports during the period of first quarter of 1990 to fourth quarter of 2015. It is claimed by some researchers that high fluctuations of exchange rates cause a reduction on tourist arrivals. Empirical researchers often utilize the standard deviation of the moving average of the logarithm of the exchange rate as a measure of exchange rate fluctuation. In this study, a new measure for measuring volatility is proposed. The empirical methodology used relies upon the theory of cointegration, error correction representation of the exchange rate volatility measures using the Autoregressive Distributed Lags modeling to cointegration. Overall, our findings suggest that there is a negative effect of volatility to tourist arrivals for Korea.