Nicola Motterlini

Potentially inappropriate prescribing among older people in the United Kingdom

BackgroundPotentially inappropriate prescribing (PIP) in older people is associated with increases in morbidity, hospitalisation and mortality. The objective of this study was to estimate the prevalence of and factors associated with PIP, among those aged ≥70 years, in the United Kingdom, using a comprehensive set of prescribing indicators and comparing these to estimates obtained from a truncated set of the same indicators.MethodsA retrospective cross-sectional study was carried out in the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD), in 2007. Participants included those aged ≥ 70 years, in CPRD. Fifty-two PIP indicators from the Screening Tool of Older Persons Potentially Inappropriate Prescriptions (STOPP) criteria were applied to data on prescribed drugs and clinical diagnoses. Overall prevalence of PIP and prevalence according to individual STOPP criteria were estimated. The relationship between PIP and polypharmacy (≥4 medications), comorbidity, age, and gender was examined. A truncated, subset of 28 STOPP criteria that were used in two previous studies, were further applied to the data to facilitate comparison.ResultsUsing 52 indicators, the overall prevalence of PIP in the study population (n = 1,019,491) was 29%. The most common examples of PIP were therapeutic duplication (11.9%), followed by use of aspirin with no indication (11.3%) and inappropriate use of proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) (3.7%). PIP was strongly associated with polypharmacy (Odds Ratio 18.2, 95% Confidence Intervals, 18.0-18.4, P < 0.05). PIP was more common in those aged 70–74 years vs. 85 years or more and in males. Application of the smaller subset of the STOPP criteria resulted in a lower PIP prevalence at 14.9% (95% CIs 14.8-14.9%) (n = 151,598). The most common PIP issues identified with this subset were use of PPIs at maximum dose for > 8 weeks, NSAIDs for > 3 months, and use of long-term neuroleptics.ConclusionsPIP was prevalent in the UK and increased with polypharmacy. Application of the comprehensive set of STOPP criteria allowed more accurate estimation of PIP compared to the subset of criteria used in previous studies. These findings may provide a focus for targeted interventions to reduce PIP.

Cemented versus uncemented fixation in total hip replacement: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials

The optimal method of fixation for primary total hip replacements (THR), particularly fixation with or without the use of cement is still controversial. In a systematic review and metaanalysis of all randomized controlled trials comparing cemented versus uncemented THRS available in the published literature, we found that there is no significant difference between cemented and uncemented THRs in terms of implant survival as measured by the revision rate. Better short-term clinical outcome, particularly an improved pain score can be obtained with cemented fixation. However, the results are unclear for the long-term clinical and functional outcome between the two groups. No difference was evident in the mortality and the post operative complication rate. On the other hand, the radiographic findings were variable and do not seem to correlate with clinical findings as differences in the surgical technique and prosthesis design might be associated with the incidence of osteolysis. We concluded in our review that cemented THR is similar if not superior to uncemented THR, and provides better short term clinical outcomes. Further research, improved methodology and longer follow up are necessary to better define specific subgroups of patients in whom the relative benefits of cemented and uncemented implant fixation can be clearly demonstrated.

Prognostic value of the ABCD2 clinical prediction rule: a systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE The purpose of this systematic review with meta-analysis is to determine the predictive value of the ABCD ²at 7 and 90 days across three strata of risk. Background. The risk of stroke after transient ischaemic attack (TIA) is significant. The ABCD ²clinical prediction rule is designed to predict early risk of stroke after TIA. A number of independent validation studies have been conducted since the rule was derived. METHODS A systematic literature search was conducted to identify studies that validated the ABCD². The derived rule was used as a predictive model and applied to subsequent validation studies. Comparisons were made between observed and predicted number of strokes stratified by risk group: low (0-3 points), moderate (4-5 points) and high (6-7 points). Pooled results are presented as risk ratios (RRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs), in terms of over-prediction (RR > 1) or under-prediction (RR < 1) of stroke at 7 and 90 days. RESULTS We include 16 validation studies. Fourteen studies report 7-day stroke risk (n = 6282, 388 strokes). The ABCD² rule correctly predicts occurrence of stroke at 7 days across all three risk strata: low [RR 0.86, 95% CI (0.47-1.58), I² = 16%], moderate [RR 0.99, 95% CI (0.67-1.47), I² = 68%] and high [RR 0.84, 95% CI (0.6-1.19), I² = 46%]. Eleven studies report 90-day stroke risk (n = 6304). There is a non-significant trend towards over-prediction of stroke in all risk categories at 90 days. There are 426 strokes observed in contrast to a predicted 626 strokes. As the trichotomized ABCD² score increases, the risk of stroke increases (P < 0.01). There is no evidence of publication bias in these studies (P > 0.05). CONCLUSION The ABCD² is a useful CPR, particularly in relation to 7-day risk of stroke.

Depressive vulnerabilities predict depression status and trajectories of depression over 1 year in persons with acute coronary syndrome

OBJECTIVE Depression is prevalent in patients hospitalized with acute coronary syndrome (ACS). We determined whether theoretical vulnerabilities for depression (interpersonal life events, reinforcing events, cognitive distortions, Type D personality) predicted depression, or depression trajectories, post-hospitalization. METHODS We followed 375 ACS patients who completed depression scales during hospital admission and at least once during three follow-up intervals over 1 year (949 observations). Questionnaires assessing vulnerabilities were completed at baseline. Logistic regression for panel/longitudinal data predicted depression status during follow-up. Latent class analysis determined depression trajectories. Multinomial logistic regression modeled the relationship between vulnerabilities and trajectories. RESULTS Vulnerabilities predicted depression status over time in univariate and multivariate analysis, even when controlling for baseline depression. Proportions in each depression trajectory category were as follows: persistent (15%), subthreshold (37%), never depressed (48%). Vulnerabilities independently predicted each of these trajectories, with effect sizes significantly highest for the persistent depression group. CONCLUSIONS Self-reported vulnerabilities - stressful life events, reduced reinforcing events, cognitive distortions, personality - measured during hospitalization can identify those at risk for depression post-ACS and especially those with persistent depressive episodes. Interventions should focus on these vulnerabilities.

Antibiotic prescribing trends in a paediatric sub-population in Ireland.

Little is known about antibiotic prescribing in Irish children. This study aims to examine antibiotic prescribing patterns in Irish children and associated costs and to compare this with European findings.

A simplified approach to the pooled analysis of calibration of clinical prediction rules for systematic reviews of validation studies.

Objective Estimating calibration performance of clinical prediction rules (CPRs) in systematic reviews of validation studies is not possible when predicted values are neither published nor accessible or sufficient or no individual participant or patient data are available. Our aims were to describe a simplified approach for outcomes prediction and calibration assessment and evaluate its functionality and validity. Study design and methods: Methodological study of systematic reviews of validation studies of CPRs: a) ABCD2 rule for prediction of 7 day stroke; and b) CRB-65 rule for prediction of 30 day mortality. Predicted outcomes in a sample validation study were computed by CPR distribution patterns (“derivation model”). As confirmation, a logistic regression model (with derivation study coefficients) was applied to CPR-based dummy variables in the validation study. Meta-analysis of validation studies provided pooled estimates of “predicted:observed” risk ratios (RRs), 95% confidence intervals (CIs), and indexes of heterogeneity (I2) on forest plots (fixed and random effects models), with and without adjustment of intercepts. The above approach was also applied to the CRB-65 rule. Results Our simplified method, applied to ABCD2 rule in three risk strata (low, 0–3; intermediate, 4–5; high, 6–7 points), indicated that predictions are identical to those computed by univariate, CPR-based logistic regression model. Discrimination was good (c-statistics =0.61–0.82), however, calibration in some studies was low. In such cases with miscalibration, the under-prediction (RRs =0.73–0.91, 95% CIs 0.41–1.48) could be further corrected by intercept adjustment to account for incidence differences. An improvement of both heterogeneities and P-values (Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test) was observed. Better calibration and improved pooled RRs (0.90–1.06), with narrower 95% CIs (0.57–1.41) were achieved. Conclusion Our results have an immediate clinical implication in situations when predicted outcomes in CPR validation studies are lacking or deficient by describing how such predictions can be obtained by everyone using the derivation study alone, without any need for highly specialized knowledge or sophisticated statistics.

Benzodiazepine prescribing in children under 15 years of age receiving free medical care on the General Medical Services scheme in Ireland

Objective To examine the prevalence and secular trends in benzodiazepine (BZD) prescribing in the Irish paediatric population. In addition, we examine coprescribing of antiepileptic, antipsychotic, antidepressant and psychostimulants in children receiving BZD drugs and compare BZD prescribing in Ireland to that in other European countries. Setting Data were obtained from the Irish General Medical Services (GMS) scheme pharmacy claims database from the Health Service Executive (HSE)—Primary Care Reimbursement Services (PCRS). Participants Children aged 0–15 years, on the HSE-PCRS database between January 2002 and December 2011, were included. Primary and secondary outcome measures Prescribing rates were reported over time (2002–2011) and duration (≤ or >90 days). Age (0–4, 5–11, 12–15) and gender trends were established. Rates of concomitant prescriptions for antiepileptic, antipsychotics, antidepressants and psychostimulants were reported. European prescribing data were retrieved from the literature. Results Rates decreased from 2002 (8.56/1000 GMS population: 95% CI 8.20 to 8.92) to 2011 (5.33/1000 GMS population: 95% CI 5.10 to 5.55). Of those children currently receiving a BZD prescription, 6% were prescribed BZD for >90 days. Rates were higher for boys in the 0–4 and 5–11 age ranges, whereas for girls they were higher in the 12–15 age groups. A substantial proportion of children receiving BZD drugs are also prescribed antiepileptic (27%), antidepressant (11%), antipsychotic (5%) and psychostimulant (2%) medicines. Prescribing rates follow a similar pattern to that in other European countries. Conclusions While BZD prescribing trends have decreased in recent years, this study shows that a significant proportion of the GMS children population are being prescribed BZD in the long term. This study highlights the need for guidelines for BZD prescribing in children in terms of clinical indication and responsibility, coprescribing, dosage and duration of treatment.