Nicolas C. Jourdain

Processes setting the characteristics of sea surface cooling induced by tropical cyclones

[1] A 1/2° resolution global ocean general circulation model is used to investigate the processes controlling sea surface cooling in the wake of tropical cyclones (TCs). Wind forcing related to more than 3000 TCs occurring during the 1978–2007 period is blended with the CORE II interannual forcing, using an idealized TC wind pattern with observed magnitude and track. The amplitude and spatial characteristics of the TC-induced cooling are consistent with satellite observations, with an average cooling of � 1°C that typically extends over 5 radii of maximum wind. A Wind power index (WPi) is used to discriminate cooling processes under TCs with high-energy transfer to the upper ocean (strong and/or slow cyclones) from the others (weak and/or fast cyclones). Surface heat fluxes contribute to � 50 to 80% of the cooling for weak WPi as well as away from the cyclone track. Within 200 km of the track, mixing-induced cooling increases linearly with WPi, explaining � 30% of the cooling for weak WPis and up to � 80% for large ones. Mixing-induced cooling is strongly modulated by pre-storm oceanic conditions. For a given WPi, vertical processes can induce up to 8 times more cooling for shallow mixed layer and steep temperature stratification than for a deep mixed layer. Vertical mixing is the main source of rightward bias of the cold wake for weak and moderate WPi, but along-track advection becomes the main contributor to the asymmetry for the largest WPis.

Cold Tongue and Warm Pool ENSO Events in CMIP5: Mean State and Future Projections

AbstractThe representation of the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) under historical forcing and future projections is analyzed in 34 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). Most models realistically simulate the observed intensity and location of maximum sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies during ENSO events. However, there exist systematic biases in the westward extent of ENSO-related SST anomalies, driven by unrealistic westward displacement and enhancement of the equatorial wind stress in the western Pacific. Almost all CMIP5 models capture the observed asymmetry in magnitude between the warm and cold events (i.e., El Ninos are stronger than La Ninas) and between the two types of El Ninos: that is, cold tongue (CT) El Ninos are stronger than warm pool (WP) El Ninos. However, most models fail to reproduce the asymmetry between the two types of La Ninas, with CT stronger than WP events, which is opposite to observations. Most models capture the observed peak in ENSO ...

Rapid subsurface warming and circulation changes of Antarctic coastal waters by poleward shifting winds

The southern hemisphere westerly winds have been strengthening and shifting poleward since the 1950s. This wind trend is projected to persist under continued anthropogenic forcing, but the impact of the changing winds on Antarctic coastal heat distribution remains poorly understood. Here we show that a poleward wind shift at the latitudes of the Antarctic Peninsula can produce an intense warming of subsurface coastal waters that exceeds 2°C at 200–700 m depth. The model simulated warming results from a rapid advective heat flux induced by weakened near-shore Ekman pumping and is associated with weakened coastal currents. This analysis shows that anthropogenically induced wind changes can dramatically increase the temperature of ocean water at ice sheet grounding lines and at the base of floating ice shelves around Antarctica, with potentially significant ramifications for global sea level rise.

Comparison of tropical cyclogenesis indices on seasonal to interannual timescales

This paper evaluates the performances of four cyclogenesis indices against observed tropical cyclone genesis on a global scale over the period 1979–2001. These indices are: the Genesis Potential Index; the Yearly Genesis Parameter; the Modified Yearly Convective Genesis Potential Index; and the Tippett et al. Index (J Clim, 2011), hereafter referred to as TCS. Choosing ERA40, NCEP2, NCEP or JRA25 reanalysis to calculate these indices can yield regional differences but overall does not change the main conclusions arising from this study. By contrast, differences between indices are large and vary depending on the regions and on the timescales considered. All indices except the TCS show an equatorward bias in mean cyclogenesis, especially in the northern hemisphere where this bias can reach 5°. Mean simulated genesis numbers for all indices exhibit large regional discrepancies, which can commonly reach up to ±50%. For the seasonal timescales on which the indices are historically fitted, performances also vary widely in terms of amplitude although in general they all reproduce the cyclogenesis seasonality adequately. At the seasonal scale, the TCS seems to be the best fitted index overall. The most striking feature at interannual scales is the inability of all indices to reproduce the observed cyclogenesis amplitude. The indices also lack the ability to reproduce the general interannual phase variability, but they do, however, acceptably reproduce the phase variability linked to El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)—a major driver of tropical cyclones interannual variations. In terms of cyclogenesis mechanisms that can be inferred from the analysis of the index terms, there are wide variations from one index to another at seasonal and interannual timescales and caution is advised when using these terms from one index only. They do, however, show a very good coherence at ENSO scale thus inspiring confidence in the mechanism interpretations that can be obtained by the use of any index. Finally, part of the gap between the observed and simulated cyclogenesis amplitudes may be attributable to stochastic processes, which cannot be inferred from environmental indices that only represent a potential for cyclogenesis.

Assessing the oceanic control on the amplitude of sea surface cooling induced by tropical cyclones

Received 24 October 2011; revised 28 March 2012; accepted 30 March 2012; published 15 May 2012. [1] Tropical cyclones (TCs) induce sea surface cooling that feeds back negatively on their intensity. Previous studies indicate that the cooling magnitude depends on oceanic conditions as well as TC characteristics, but this oceanic control has been poorly documented. We investigate the oceanic influence on TC-induced cooling using a global ocean model experiment that realistically samples the ocean response to more than 3,000 TCs over the last 30 years. We derive a physically grounded oceanic parameter, the Cooling Inhibition index (CI), which measures the potential energy input required to cool the ocean surface through vertical mixing, and hence accounts for the pre-storm upper-ocean stratification resistance to TC-induced cooling. The atmospheric control is described using the wind power index (WPi), a proxy of the kinetic energy transferred to the ocean by a TC, which accounts for both the effects of maximum winds and translation speed. The cooling amplitude increases almost linearly with WPi. For a given WPi, the cooling amplitude can however vary by an order of magnitude: a strong wind energy input can either result in a 0.5 � Co r 5 � C cooling, depending on oceanic background state. Using an oceanic parameter such as CI in addition to wind energy input improves statistical hindcasts of the cold wake amplitude by � 40%. Deriving an oceanic parameter based on the potential energy required to cool the ocean surface through vertical mixing is thus a promising way to better account for ocean characteristics in TCs studies.

Weather regimes and orographic circulation around New Caledonia.

The local climate and island-scale circulation around New Caledonia is investigated using a 4-km resolution mesoscale atmospheric model in concert with QuikSCAT scatterometer winds at 12.5-km resolution. The mesoscale atmospheric weather regimes are first examined through an objective classification applied to the remote sensed winds for nine warm seasons from 1999 to 2008. Four main weather types are identified. Their corresponding synoptic-scale circulation reveals that they are strongly discernable through the position and intensity of the South Pacific Convergence zone (SPCZ), the mid-latitude systems, and the subtropical jet stream. The link between the mesoscale weather types and the two dominant large-scale modes of variability, namely the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is also described in terms of their influence on the occurrence of each weather type. It shows that their occurrence is significantly controlled by both MJO and ENSO, through modulation of the SPCZ. The large-scale modes of variability are scaled down to island-scale circulation through synoptic and mesoscale regimes, and are eventually modulated by orographic and thermal control. The island-scale circulation is inferred in this study by applying the compositing method to both observed and simulated winds. Their comparison clearly shows the ability of the mesoscale model to capture the local circulation and its spatial and temporal variability. A scaling analysis conducted from the simulated atmospheric parameters shows that the mountain range of New Caledonia is hydrodynamically steep. As a result of trade-wind obstruction by the mountainous island, the flow is shaped by coastally trapped mesoscale responses, i.e., blocking, flow splitting and corner winds, with a spatial scale of about 150 km. Two main obstacles, Mont Panié and Mont Humboldt play a significant role on the dynamical behavior of the low-level flow, while the diurnal heating cycle in the vicinity of the Mainland strongly modulates the local circulation. Moreover, nocturnal drainage flow of cold air occurs on the leeside slope of Mont Humboldt and inhibits vertical mixing over the ocean, which results in a deceleration of surface winds.

Mesoscale Simulation of Tropical Cyclones in the South Pacific: Climatology and Interannual Variability

The Weather Research and Forecast model at ⅓° resolution is used to simulate the statistics of tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the present climate of the South Pacific. In addition to the large-scale conditions, the model is shown to reproduce a wide range of mesoscale convective systems. Tropical cyclones grow from the most intense of these systems formed along the South Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ) and sometimes develop into hurricanes. The three-dimensional structure of simulated tropical cyclones is in excellent agreement with dropsondes and satellite observations. The mean seasonal and spatial distributions of TC genesis and occurrence are also in good agreement with the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) data. It is noted, however, that the spatial pattern of TC activity is shifted to the northeast because of a similar bias in the environmental forcing. Over the whole genesis area, 8.2 ± 3.5 cyclones are produced seasonally in the model, compared with 6.6 ± 3.0 in the JTWC data. Part of the interannual variability is associated with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). ENSO-driven displacement of the SPCZ position produces a dipole pattern of correlation and results in a weaker correlation when the opposing correlations of the dipole are amalgamated over the entire South Pacific region. As a result, environmentally forced variability at the regional scale is relatively weak, that is, of comparable order to stochastic variability (±1.7 cyclones yr−1), which is estimated from a 10-yr climatological simulation. Stochastic variability appears essentially related to mesoscale interactions, which also affect TC tracks and the resulting occurrence.

Extreme Rainfall Variability in Australia: Patterns, Drivers, and Predictability*

AbstractLeading patterns of observed monthly extreme rainfall variability in Australia are examined using an empirical orthogonal teleconnection (EOT) method. Extreme rainfall variability is more closely related to mean rainfall variability during austral summer than in winter. The leading EOT patterns of extreme rainfall explain less variance in Australia-wide extreme rainfall than is the case for mean rainfall EOTs. The authors illustrate that, as with mean rainfall, the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has the strongest association with warm-season extreme rainfall variability, while in the cool season the primary drivers are atmospheric blocking and the subtropical ridge. The Indian Ocean dipole and southern annular mode also have significant relationships with patterns of variability during austral winter and spring. Leading patterns of summer extreme rainfall variability have predictability several months ahead from Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and as much as a year in advance from Ind...

Observation-Based Estimates of Surface Cooling Inhibition by Heavy Rainfall under Tropical Cyclones

Tropical cyclones drive intense ocean vertical mixing that explains most of the surface cooling observed in their wake (the “cold wake”). In this paper, the authors investigate the influence of cyclonic rainfall on the cold wake at a global scale over the 2002–09 period. For each cyclone, the cold wake intensity and accumulated rainfall are obtained from satellite data and precyclone oceanic stratification from the Global Eddy-Permitting Ocean Reanalysis (GLORYS2). The impact of precipitation on the cold wake is estimated by assuming that cooling is entirely due to vertical mixing and that an extra amount of energy (corresponding to the energy used to mix the rain layer into the ocean) would be available for mixing the ocean column in the hypothetical case with no rain. The positive buoyancy flux of rainfall reduces the mixed layer depth after the cyclone passage, hence reducing cold water entrainment. The resulting reduction in cold wake amplitude is generally small (median of 0.07 K for a median 1 K cold wake) but not negligible (>19% for 10% of the cases). Despite similar cyclonic rainfall, the effect of rain on the cold wake is strongest in the Arabian Sea and weak in the Bay of Bengal. An analytical approach with a linearly stratified ocean allows attributing this difference to the presence of barrier layers in the Bay of Bengal. The authors also show that the cold wake is generally a “salty wake” because entrainment of subsurface saltier water overwhelms the dilution effect of rainfall. Finally, rainfall temperature has a negligible influence on the cold wake.

Ocean circulation and sea-ice thinning induced by melting ice shelves in the Amundsen Sea

A 1/12° ocean model configuration of the Amundsen Sea sector is developed to better understand the circulation induced by ice-shelf melt and the impacts on the surrounding ocean and sea ice. Eighteen sensitivity experiments to drag and heat exchange coefficients at the ice shelf/ocean interface are performed. The total melt rate simulated in each cavity is function of the thermal Stanton number, and for a given thermal Stanton number, melt is slightly higher for lower values of the drag coefficient. Sub-ice-shelf melt induces a thermohaline circulation that pumps warm circumpolar deep water into the cavity. The related volume flux into a cavity is 100–500 times stronger than the melt volume flux itself. Ice-shelf melt also induces a coastal barotropic current that contributes 45 ± 12% of the total simulated coastal transport. Due to the presence of warm circumpolar deep waters, the melt-induced inflow typically brings 4–20 times more heat into the cavities than the latent heat required for melt. For currently observed melt rates, approximately 6–31% of the heat that enters a cavity with melting potential is actually used to melt ice shelves. For increasing sub-ice-shelf melt rates, the transport in the cavity becomes stronger, and more heat is pumped from the deep layers to the upper part of the cavity then advected toward the ocean surface in front of the ice shelf. Therefore, more ice-shelf melt induces less sea-ice volume near the ice sheet margins.