Nicolas de Roos

Decision making under risk in Deal or No Deal

We analyse the choices of 399 contestants in the Australian version of the television game show Deal or No Deal. We calculate risk aversion bounds for each contestant, revealing considerable heterogeneity. We then estimate a structural stochastic choice model that captures the dynamic decision problem faced by contestants. To address individual heterogeneity, we nest the dynamic problem within the settings of both a random effects and a random coefficients probit model. Our structural model produces plausible estimates of risk aversion, confirms the role of individual heterogeneity and suggests that a model of stochastic choice is indeed appropriate. We find mixed evidence of greater risk aversion by females. We also examine generalizations to expected utility theory, finding that the rank-dependent utility model adds non-negligible explanatory power and indicates optimism in probability weighting. Finally, we test, but are unable to confirm, the existence of an endowment effect for lotteries. Copyright

Gasoline Price Cycles Under Discrete Time Pricing

We characterise petrol pricing dynamics in an unusual policy environment. A timing restriction in the Western Australian market imposes discrete time pricing on petrol retailers, enabling us to observe the exact timing of price changes. We employ a Markov switching regression model, finding the existence of Edgeworth price cycles of a similar nature to those recently observed in some other retail petrol markets. Cycles are frequent, asymmetric, and of substantial amplitude. Importantly, firms change prices almost every period, limiting the relevance of the leading theory of Edgeworth cycles due to Maskin and Tirole (1988). We also discuss episodes of disruption and evolution of the price cycle.

Pricing Dynamics in the Australian Airline Market

We examine price dispersion in a large dataset of Australian domestic airfares. The airlines vary the lowest available fares on successive booking days by restricting the menu of available ticket types, and by changing the prices for some of those types. Our fixed-effects estimator allows us to characterise both of those mechanisms. The greatest price variation occurs on routes involving competition between the two main airlines, Qantas and Virgin; there is greater variation on monopoly routes than on routes pitting Virgin against the Qantas subsidiary, Jetstar. The lowest fares rise rapidly in the week before travel.

Static Models of the Edgeworth Cycle

We provide a reduced form model that encompasses a range of static explanations for the Edgeworth cycle. The model distills two common features that lie behind a range of intuitive explanations for Edgeworth cycles: discontinuity in demand and a positive residual demand.

Substance use and adolescent sexual activity

Using the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997, we examine the relationship between initiating substance use and youth sexual behaviour. We employ a combination of panel data and propensity score matching techniques to control for observed and unobserved heterogeneity. The results indicate striking differences across gender. For males, initiating alcohol or marijuana use is positively and significantly associated with the likelihood of engaging in sexual intercourse and uncontracepted sexual intercourse. For females, in contrast, there is no robust evidence for such links.

Consumer Search in Retail Gasoline Markets

This paper develops direct tests for search behavior in retail gasoline markets. We exploit a unique market-level dataset that allows us to directly measure search intensity with daily web traffic data from a gasoline price reporting website and perfectly measure daily changes in price levels and dispersion. Our simple yet powerful tests provide strong evidence of both cross-sectional and intertemporal price search.This note presents some simple, direct tests for search and dynamic demand behavior in retail gasoline markets. We exploit a unique market-level dataset that allows us to directly measure search intensity with daily web traffic data from a gasoline price reporting website, and perfectly measure daily changes in price levels and dispersion. We find stark evidence of both search and stockpiling behavior.

Learning to Coordinate: A Study in Retail Gasoline

This paper studies equilibrium selection in the retail gasoline industry. We exploit a unique dataset that contains the universe of station-level prices for an urban market for 15 years, and that encompasses a coordinated equilibrium transition mid-sample. We uncover a gradual, three-year equilibrium transition, whereby dominant firms use price leadership and price experiments to create focal points that coordinate market prices, soften price competition, and enhance retail margins. Our results inform the theory of collusion, with particular relevance to the initiation of collusion and equilibrium selection. We also highlight new insights into merger policy and collusion detection strategies.

Consumer Search in Retail Gasoline Markets: CONSUMER SEARCH IN RETAIL GASOLINE MARKETS

This paper develops direct tests for search behavior in retail gasoline markets. We exploit a unique market‐level dataset that allows us to directly measure search intensity with daily web traffic data from a gasoline price reporting website and perfectly measure daily changes in price levels and dispersion. Our simple yet powerful tests provide strong evidence of both cross‐sectional and intertemporal price search.

Collusion with Intertemporal Price Dispersion

We develop a theory of optimal collusive intertemporal price dispersion. Dispersion clouds consumer price awareness, encouraging firms to coordinate on dispersed prices. Our theory generates a collusive rationale for price cycles and sales. Patient firms can support optimal collusion at the monopoly price. For less patient firms, monopoly prices must be punctuated with fleeting sales. The most robust structure involves asymmetric price cycles resembling Edgeworth cycles. Low consumer attentiveness enhances the effectiveness of price dispersion by reducing the payoff to deviations involving price reductions. However, for sufficiently low attentiveness, price rises are also a concern, limiting the power of obfuscation.

Do Firms Play Markov Strategies

The observation of Edgeworth-like petrol price cycles is routinely taken as evidence for the Maskin and Tirole (1988) price commitment model. We exploit an unusual policy innovation in the Western Australian retail petrol market that permits us to observe the precise timing of market actions. We find that, not only is the Maskin and Tirole model rejected in this setting, but its rejection hinges centrally on the restriction to Markov strategies.