Nicolas Quérou

Theory of Conjectural Variations

We have witnessed in recent years a revival of Conjectural Variations in Game Theory. This reincarnation of an old idea, using a dynamic point of view, aims at combining the adequacy with facts to the requirements of a firmly grounded theory. This book presents, for the first time, a comprehensive account of conjectural variations equilibria in their static inceptions, featuring new comparative results of equilibria with regard to efficiency. It then describes several advances in Dynamic Game Theory, allowing to understand Conjectural Variations Equilibria as dynamic equilibria. The question of how conjectures evolve in strategic and learning situations with boundedly rational agents is also discussed.

Bounded Rationality and Repeated Network Formation

We define a finite-horizon repeated network formation game with consent, and study the differences induced by different levels of individual rationality. We prove that perfectly rational players will remain unconnected at the equilibrium, while nonempty equilibrium networks may form when, following Neyman (1985), players are assumed to behave as finite automata. We define two types of equilibria, namely the Repeated Nash Network (RNN), in which the same network forms at each period, and the Repeated Nash Equilibrium (RNE), in which different networks may form. We state a sufficient condition under which a given network may be implemented as a RNN. Then, we provide structural properties of RNE. For instance, players may form totally different networks at each period, or the networks within a given RNE may exhibit a total order relationship. Finally we investigate the question of efficiency for both Bentham and Pareto criteria.

Group Bargaining and Conflict

We consider a situation where groups negotiate over the allocation of a surplus (which is used to fund group specific goods). Each group is composed of agents who have differing valuations for public goods. Members choose a representative to take decisions on their behalf. Specifically, representatives can decide to enter either a (cooperative) negotiation protocol or a conflict to appropriate the surplus. In the cooperative negotiations, disagreement corresponds to a pro rata allocation (as a function of the size of the groups). We analyse the conditions (on the internal composition of the groups) under which conflict will be preferred to negotiated agreements (and vice versa), and we derive welfare implications. Finally, we provide results of comparative statics that highlight the influence of changes in the internal composition of groups and in their relative size on the profitability of negotiated agreements.