Niels Hovius

Links between erosion, runoff variability and seismicity in the Taiwan orogen

The erosion of mountain belts controls their topographic and structural evolution and is the main source of sediment delivered to the oceans. Mountain erosion rates have been estimated from current relief and precipitation, but a more complete evaluation of the controls on erosion rates requires detailed measurements across a range of timescales. Here we report erosion rates in the Taiwan mountains estimated from modern river sediment loads, Holocene river incision and thermochronometry on a million-year scale. Estimated erosion rates within the actively deforming mountains are high (3–6 mm yr-1) on all timescales, but the pattern of erosion has changed over time in response to the migration of localized tectonic deformation. Modern, decadal-scale erosion rates correlate with historical seismicity and storm-driven runoff variability. The highest erosion rates are found where rapid deformation, high storm frequency and weak substrates coincide, despite low topographic relief.

Earthquake-triggered increase in sediment delivery from an active mountain belt

In tectonically active mountain belts, earthquake-triggered landslides deliver large amounts of sediment to rivers. We quantify the geomorphic impact of the 1999 Mw 7.6 Chi-Chi earthquake in Taiwan, which triggered >20,000 landslides. Coseismic weakening of substrate material caused increased landsliding during subsequent typhoons. Most coseismic landslides remained confined to hillslopes. Downslope transport of sediment into the channel network occurred during later storms. The sequential processes have led to a factor-of-four increase in unit sediment concentration in rivers draining the epicentral area and increased the magnitude and frequency of hyperpycnal sediment delivery to the ocean. Four years after the earthquake, rates of hillslope mass wasting remain elevated in the epicentral area.

The characterization of landslide size distributions

Landslide size distributions generally exhibit power-law scaling over a limited scale range. The range is set by the mapping resolution, by the number of observed events, and by the slope failure process itself. This property of self-similarity is an important insight into the physics of hillslope failure. Typically, however, a large proportion of the landslide data does not fit a simple power law. These data are always ignored in order to characterize the scaling. We show that landslide data sets from New Zealand and Taiwan exhibit two scaling regimes, separated by a crossover scale that is purely an artefact of mapping resolution. Below this scale the landslide data are undersampled. We propose a general model for the size distribution of observed landslides which can account for the whole population of mapped slope failures. The model quantifies the undersampling of smaller landslides and provides an improved estimation of the power-law scaling of larger landslides. Estimates of this scaling suggest that the area disturbed by landsliding, and perhaps the landslide sediment yield, are essentially dependent on the frequency of smaller landslides. Higher resolution landslide maps will be required in order to quantify these fluxes. Our results also indicate that the probability of extreme landslide events is less than previous studies would predict.

Discharge, discharge variability, and the bedrock channel profile

Long-term bedrock incision is driven by daily discharge events of variable magnitude and frequency, with ineffective events below an incision threshold. We explore theoretically how this short-term stochastic behavior controls long-term steady state incision rates and bedrock channel profiles, combining a realistic frequency-magnitude distribution of discharge with a deterministic, detachment-limited incision model in which incision rate is a power function of basal shear stress above a critical shear stress. Our model predicts a power law relationship between steady state slope and drainage area consistent with observations. The exponent of this power law is independent of discharge mean and variability, while the amplitude factor, which controls mountain belt relief, is a power law function of mean runoff (with an exponent of -0.5) and a complex function of runoff variability. In accordance with evidence that incision occurs between 6 and 20% of time in rapidly incising rivers (>1 mm/yr) our model predicts that channel steepness is virtually insensitive to runoff variability. Runoff variability can only decrease channel steepness for very slow incision rates and/or weak lithologies. The relationship between channel steepness and incision rate is always a power law whose exponent depends on the channel cross-sectional geometry and runoff variability. This contradicts models neglecting discharge stochasticity in which the steepness-incision scaling is set by the incision law exponent. Our results suggest that changes in climate variability cannot explain an increase in bedrock incision rates during the Late Cenozoic within the context of a detachment limited model.

Cover effect in bedrock abrasion: A new derivation and its implications for the modeling of bedrock channel morphology

The sediment load of a bedrock river plays an important role in the fluvial incision process by providing tools for abrasion (the tools effect) and by covering and thereby protecting the bed (the cover effect). We derive a new formulation for the cover effect, in which the fraction of exposed bed area falls exponentially with increasing sediment flux or decreasing transport capacity, and explore its consequences for the model of bedrock abrasion by saltating bed load. Erosion rates predicted by the model are higher than those predicted by earlier models. In a closed system, the maximum erosion rate is predicted to occur when sediment supply is equal to transport capacity for a flat bed. By optimizing the channel geometry to minimize the potential energy of the stream and using representative values for both discharge and grain size, we derive equations for the geometry of a bedrock river and explore how predictions for width, slope, and bed cover vary as functions of drainage area, rock uplift rate, and rock strength. The equations predict a dependence of channel width on drainage area similar to the relations using a simple shear stress incision law. The slope-area relationship is predicted to be concave up in a log-log regime, with a curvature dependent on uplift rate. However, this curvature does not deviate sufficiently from a straight line to allow discrimination between models using empirical data. Dependence of channel width and slope on rock uplift rate can be separated into two domains: for low uplift rates, channel geometry is largely insensitive to uplift rate due to a threshold effect. At high uplift rates, there is a power law dependence. Bed cover is predicted to increase progressively downstream and to increase with increasing uplift rate. In our model, the width-to-depth ratio is a function of both tectonic and climatic forcing. This indicates that the scaling between channel width and bed slope is neither a unique indicator of tectonic forcing at steady state nor a signature of transience or steady state. We conclude that sediment effects need to be taken into account when modeling bedrock channel morphology.

Erosion rates for Taiwan Mountain Basins: New determinations from suspended sediment records and a stochastic model of their temporal variation

We estimate erosion rates from suspended sediment records for 11 basins in the eastern Central Range (ECR) of Taiwan using methods based on mean measured sediment discharge, a rating curve of sediment and water discharge, and a rating curve corrected for periods of limited sediment due to the lack of landslide‐supplied sediment. The preferred method for any basin depends on record length and sampling frequency, with higher quality records being analyzed by the latter method. Erosion rate estimates range from 2.2 to 8.3 mm/yr for records with varying sampling frequencies and durations between 8 and 27 yr. This variation in erosion rates does not seem to reflect lithology, tectonic environment, or climate. We interpret the variation in terms of natural stochastic variation in water discharge and sediment supply. To assess the quality of the erosion rate estimates and to better understand the dependence of uncertainty on the duration and frequency of sampling, we construct a stochastic model of sediment supply and transport for the Chihpen River of the ECR. The model stochastically predicts the water discharge and sediment supply from landslides and calculates the transport of suspended sediment through application of a deterministic transport law. We determine that with a 27‐yr hydrograph with 780 suspended sediment load measurements for the Chihpen River, assuming an erosion rate of 5.1 mm/yr, there is a 68.3% probability of determining an erosion rate within \documentclass{aastex} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{bm} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{pifont} \usepackage{stmaryrd} \usepackage{textcomp} \usepackage{portland,xspace} \usepackage{amsmath,amsxtra} \usepackage[OT2,OT1]{fontenc} \newcommand\cyr{ \renewcommand\rmdefault{wncyr} \renewcommand\sfdefault{wncyss} \renewcommand\encodingdefault{OT2} \normalfont \selectfont} \DeclareTextFontCommand{\textcyr}{\cyr} \pagestyle{empty} \DeclareMathSizes{10}{9}{7}{6} \begin{document} \landscape

Hyperpycnal river flows from an active mountain belt

\pm 2.7/ 4.0

Response of bedrock channel width to tectonic forcing: Insights from a numerical model, theoretical considerations, and comparison with field data

\end{document} mm/yr of the actual erosion rate. We provide an estimate of the uncertainty associated with various sampling frequencies and record lengths and find that it is difficult to push uncertainties below ±2 mm/yr.