Nigel Bruce

Global burden of acute lower respiratory infections due to respiratory syncytial virus in young children: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Summary Background The global burden of disease attributable to respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) remains unknown. We aimed to estimate the global incidence of and mortality from episodes of acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) due to RSV in children younger than 5 years in 2005. Methods We estimated the incidence of RSV-associated ALRI in children younger than 5 years, stratified by age, using data from a systematic review of studies published between January, 1995, and June, 2009, and ten unpublished population-based studies. We estimated possible boundaries for RSV-associated ALRI mortality by combining case fatality ratios with incidence estimates from hospital-based reports from published and unpublished studies and identifying studies with population-based data for RSV seasonality and monthly ALRI mortality. Findings In 2005, an estimated 33·8 (95% CI 19·3–46·2) million new episodes of RSV-associated ALRI occurred worldwide in children younger than 5 years (22% of ALRI episodes), with at least 3·4 (2·8–4·3) million episodes representing severe RSV-associated ALRI necessitating hospital admission. We estimated that 66 000–199 000 children younger than 5 years died from RSV-associated ALRI in 2005, with 99% of these deaths occurring in developing countries. Incidence and mortality can vary substantially from year to year in any one setting. Interpretation Globally, RSV is the most common cause of childhood ALRI and a major cause of admission to hospital as a result of severe ALRI. Mortality data suggest that RSV is an important cause of death in childhood from ALRI, after pneumococcal pneumonia and Haemophilus influenzae type b. The development of novel prevention and treatment strategies should be accelerated as a priority. Funding WHO; Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Indoor Air Pollution in Developing Countries: A Major Environmental and Public Health Challenge

Around 50% of people, almost all in developing countries, rely on coal and biomass in the form of wood, dung and crop residues for domestic energy. These materials are typically burnt in simple stoves with very incomplete combustion. Consequently, women and young children are exposed to high levels of indoor air pollution every day. There is consistent evidence that indoor air pollution increases the risk of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and of acute respiratory infections in childhood, the most important cause of death among children under 5 years of age in developing countries. Evidence also exists of associations with low birth weight, increased infant and perinatal mortality, pulmonary tuberculosis, nasopharyngeal and laryngeal cancer, cataract, and, specifically in respect of the use of coal, with lung cancer. Conflicting evidence exists with regard to asthma. All studies are observational and very few have measured exposure directly, while a substantial proportion have not dealt with confounding. As a result, risk estimates are poorly quantified and may be biased. Exposure to indoor air pollution may be responsible for nearly 2 million excess deaths in developing countries and for some 4% of the global burden of disease. Indoor air pollution is a major global public health threat requiring greatly increased efforts in the areas of research and policy-making. Research on its health effects should be strengthened, particularly in relation to tuberculosis and acute lower respiratory infections. A more systematic approach to the development and evaluation of interventions is desirable, with clearer recognition of the interrelationships between poverty and dependence on polluting fuels.

Indoor air pollution in developing countries and acute lower respiratory infections in children

BACKGROUND A critical review was conducted of the quantitative literature linking indoor air pollution from household use of biomass fuels with acute respiratory infections in young children, which is focused on, but not confined to, acute lower respiratory infection and pneumonia in children under two years in less developed countries. Biomass in the form of wood, crop residues, and animal dung is used in more than two fifths of the worlds households as the principal fuel. METHODS Medline and other electronic databases were used, but it was also necessary to secure literature from colleagues in less developed countries where not all publications are yet internationally indexed. RESULTS The studies of indoor air pollution from household biomass fuels are reasonably consistent and, as a group, show a strong significant increase in risk for exposed young children compared with those living in households using cleaner fuels or being otherwise less exposed. Not all studies were able to adjust for confounders, but most of those that did so found that strong and significant risks remained. CONCLUSIONS It seems that the relative risks are likely to be significant for the exposures considered here. Since acute lower respiratory infection is the chief cause of death in children in less developed countries, and exacts a larger burden of disease than any other disease category for the world population, even small additional risks due to such a ubiquitous exposure as air pollution have important public health implications. In the case of indoor air pollution in households using biomass fuels, the risks also seem to be fairly strong, presumably because of the high daily concentrations of pollutants found in such settings and the large amount of time young children spend with their mothers doing household cooking. Given the large vulnerable populations at risk, there is an urgent need to conduct randomised trials to increase confidence in the cause-effect relationship, to quantify the risk more precisely, to determine the degree of reduction in exposure required to significantly improve health, and to establish the effectiveness of interventions.

An Integrated Risk Function for Estimating the Global Burden of Disease Attributable to Ambient Fine Particulate Matter Exposure

Background: Estimating the burden of disease attributable to long-term exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in ambient air requires knowledge of both the shape and magnitude of the relative risk (RR) function. However, adequate direct evidence to identify the shape of the mortality RR functions at the high ambient concentrations observed in many places in the world is lacking. Objective: We developed RR functions over the entire global exposure range for causes of mortality in adults: ischemic heart disease (IHD), cerebrovascular disease (stroke), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and lung cancer (LC). We also developed RR functions for the incidence of acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) that can be used to estimate mortality and lost-years of healthy life in children < 5 years of age. Methods: We fit an integrated exposure–response (IER) model by integrating available RR information from studies of ambient air pollution (AAP), second hand tobacco smoke, household solid cooking fuel, and active smoking (AS). AS exposures were converted to estimated annual PM2.5 exposure equivalents using inhaled doses of particle mass. We derived population attributable fractions (PAFs) for every country based on estimated worldwide ambient PM2.5 concentrations. Results: The IER model was a superior predictor of RR compared with seven other forms previously used in burden assessments. The percent PAF attributable to AAP exposure varied among countries from 2 to 41 for IHD, 1 to 43 for stroke, < 1 to 21 for COPD, < 1 to 25 for LC, and < 1 to 38 for ALRI. Conclusions: We developed a fine particulate mass–based RR model that covered the global range of exposure by integrating RR information from different combustion types that generate emissions of particulate matter. The model can be updated as new RR information becomes available. Citation: Burnett RT, Pope CA III, Ezzati M, Olives C, Lim SS, Mehta S, Shin HH, Singh G, Hubbell B, Brauer M, Anderson HR, Smith KR, Balmes JR, Bruce NG, Kan H, Laden F, Prüss-Ustün A, Turner MC, Gapstur SM, Diver WR, Cohen A. 2014. An integrated risk function for estimating the global burden of disease attributable to ambient fine particulate matter exposure. Environ Health Perspect 122:397–403; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1307049

UK health performance: findings of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND The UK has had universal free health care and public health programmes for more than six decades. Several policy initiatives and structural reforms of the health system have been undertaken. Health expenditure has increased substantially since 1990, albeit from relatively low levels compared with other countries. We used data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 (GBD 2010) to examine the patterns of health loss in the UK, the leading preventable risks that explain some of these patterns, and how UK outcomes compare with a set of comparable countries in the European Union and elsewhere in 1990 and 2010. METHODS We used results of GBD 2010 for 1990 and 2010 for the UK and 18 other comparator nations (the original 15 members of the European Union, Australia, Canada, Norway, and the USA; henceforth EU15+). We present analyses of trends and relative performance for mortality, causes of death, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE). We present results for 259 diseases and injuries and for 67 risk factors or clusters of risk factors relevant to the UK. We assessed the UKs rank for age-standardised YLLs and DALYs for their leading causes compared with EU15+ in 1990 and 2010. We estimated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for all measures. FINDINGS For both mortality and disability, overall health has improved substantially in absolute terms in the UK from 1990 to 2010. Life expectancy in the UK increased by 4·2 years (95% UI 4·2-4·3) from 1990 to 2010. However, the UK performed significantly worse than the EU15+ for age-standardised death rates, age-standardised YLL rates, and life expectancy in 1990, and its relative position had worsened by 2010. Although in most age groups, there have been reductions in age-specific mortality, for men aged 30-34 years, mortality rates have hardly changed (reduction of 3·7%, 95% UI 2·7-4·9). In terms of premature mortality, worsening ranks are most notable for men and women aged 20-54 years. For all age groups, the contributions of Alzheimers disease (increase of 137%, 16-277), cirrhosis (65%, ?15 to 107), and drug use disorders (577%, 71-942) to premature mortality rose from 1990 to 2010. In 2010, compared with EU15+, the UK had significantly lower rates of age-standardised YLLs for road injury, diabetes, liver cancer, and chronic kidney disease, but significantly greater rates for ischaemic heart disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, lower respiratory infections, breast cancer, other cardiovascular and circulatory disorders, oesophageal cancer, preterm birth complications, congenital anomalies, and aortic aneurysm. Because YLDs per person by age and sex have not changed substantially from 1990 to 2010 but age-specific mortality has been falling, the importance of chronic disability is rising. The major causes of YLDs in 2010 were mental and behavioural disorders (including substance abuse; 21·5% [95 UI 17·2-26·3] of YLDs), and musculoskeletal disorders (30·5% [25·5-35·7]). The leading risk factor in the UK was tobacco (11·8% [10·5-13·3] of DALYs), followed by increased blood pressure (9·0 % [7·5-10·5]), and high body-mass index (8·6% [7·4-9·8]). Diet and physical inactivity accounted for 14·3% (95% UI 12·8-15·9) of UK DALYs in 2010. INTERPRETATION The performance of the UK in terms of premature mortality is persistently and significantly below the mean of EU15+ and requires additional concerted action. Further progress in premature mortality from several major causes, such as cardiovascular diseases and cancers, will probably require improved public health, prevention, early intervention, and treatment activities. The growing burden of disability, particularly from mental disorders, substance use, musculoskeletal disorders, and falls deserves an integrated and strategic response. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Indoor air pollution from biomass fuel smoke is a major health concern in the developing world

Summary One-third of the worlds population burn organic material such as wood, dung or charcoal (biomass fuel) for cooking, heating and lighting. This form of energy usage is associated with high levels of indoor air pollution and an increase in the incidence of respiratory infections, including pneumonia, tuberculosis and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, low birthweight, cataracts, cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality both in adults and children. The mechanisms behind these associations are not fully understood. This review summarises the available information on biomass fuel use and health, highlighting the current gaps in knowledge.

Indoor air pollution from unprocessed solid fuel use and pneumonia risk in children aged under five years: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Reduction of indoor air pollution (IAP) exposure from solid fuel use is a potentially important intervention for childhood pneumonia prevention. This review updates a prior meta-analysis and investigates whether risk varies by etiological agent and pneumonia severity among children aged less than 5 years who are exposed to unprocessed solid fuels. Searches were made of electronic databases (including Africa, China and Latin America) without language restriction. Search terms covered all sources of IAP and wide-ranging descriptions of acute lower respiratory infections, including viral and bacterial agents. From 5317 studies in the main electronic databases (plus 307 African and Latin American, and 588 Chinese studies, in separate databases), 25 were included in the review and 24 were suitable for meta-analysis. Due to substantial statistical heterogeneity, random effects models were used. The overall pooled odds ratio was 1.78 (95% confidence interval, CI: 1.45-2.18), almost unchanged at 1.79 (95% CI: 1.26-2.21) after exclusion of studies with low exposure prevalence (< 15%) and one high outlier. There was evidence of publication bias, and the implications for the results are explored. Sensitivity subanalyses assessed the impact of control selection, adjustment for confounding, exposure and outcome assessment, and age, but no strong effects were identified. Evidence on respiratory syncytial virus was conflicting, while risk for severe or fatal pneumonia was similar to or higher than that for all pneumonia. Despite heterogeneity, this analysis demonstrated sufficient consistency to conclude that risk of pneumonia in young children is increased by exposure to unprocessed solid fuels by a factor of 1.8. Greater efforts are now required to implement effective interventions.

Public health benefits of strategies to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions: overview and implications for policy makers

This Series has examined the health implications of policies aimed at tackling climate change. Assessments of mitigation strategies in four domains-household energy, transport, food and agriculture, and electricity generation-suggest an important message: that actions to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions often, although not always, entail net benefits for health. In some cases, the potential benefits seem to be substantial. This evidence provides an additional and immediate rationale for reductions in greenhouse-gas emissions beyond that of climate change mitigation alone. Climate change is an increasing and evolving threat to the health of populations worldwide. At the same time, major public health burdens remain in many regions. Climate change therefore adds further urgency to the task of addressing international health priorities, such as the UN Millennium Development Goals. Recognition that mitigation strategies can have substantial benefits for both health and climate protection offers the possibility of policy choices that are potentially both more cost effective and socially attractive than are those that address these priorities independently.

Effect of reduction in household air pollution on childhood pneumonia in Guatemala (RESPIRE): a randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND Pneumonia causes more child deaths than does any other disease. Observational studies have indicated that smoke from household solid fuel is a significant risk factor that affects about half the worlds children. We investigated whether an intervention to lower indoor wood smoke emissions would reduce pneumonia in children. METHODS We undertook a parallel randomised controlled trial in highland Guatemala, in a population using open indoor wood fires for cooking. We randomly assigned 534 households with a pregnant woman or young infant to receive a woodstove with chimney (n=269) or to remain as controls using open woodfires (n=265), by concealed permuted blocks of ten homes. Fieldworkers visited homes every week until children were aged 18 months to record the childs health status. Sick children with cough and fast breathing, or signs of severe illness were referred to study physicians, masked to intervention status, for clinical examination. The primary outcome was physician-diagnosed pneumonia, without use of a chest radiograph. Analysis was by intention to treat (ITT). Infant 48-h carbon monoxide measurements were used for exposure-response analysis after adjustment for covariates. This trial is registered, number ISRCTN29007941. FINDINGS During 29,125 child-weeks of surveillance of 265 intervention and 253 control children, there were 124 physician-diagnosed pneumonia cases in intervention households and 139 in control households (rate ratio [RR] 0·84, 95% CI 0·63-1·13; p=0·257). After multiple imputation, there were 149 cases in intervention households and 180 in controls (0·78, 0·59-1·06, p=0·095; reduction 22%, 95% CI -6% to 41%). ITT analysis was undertaken for secondary outcomes: all and severe fieldworker-assessed pneumonia; severe (hypoxaemic) physician-diagnosed pneumonia; and radiologically confirmed, RSV-negative, and RSV-positive pneumonia, both total and severe. We recorded significant reductions in the intervention group for three severe outcomes-fieldworker-assessed, physician-diagnosed, and RSV-negative pneumonia--but not for others. We identified no adverse effects from the intervention. The chimney stove reduced exposure by 50% on average (from 2·2 to 1·1 ppm carbon monoxide), but exposure distributions for the two groups overlapped substantially. In exposure-response analysis, a 50% exposure reduction was significantly associated with physician-diagnosed pneumonia (RR 0·82, 0·70-0·98), the greater precision resulting from less exposure misclassification compared with use of stove type alone in ITT analysis. INTERPRETATION In a population heavily exposed to wood smoke from cooking, a reduction in exposure achieved with chimney stoves did not significantly reduce physician-diagnosed pneumonia for children younger than 18 months. The significant reduction of a third in severe pneumonia, however, if confirmed, could have important implications for reduction of child mortality. The significant exposure-response associations contribute to causal inference and suggest that stove or fuel interventions producing lower average exposures than these chimney stoves might be needed to substantially reduce pneumonia in populations heavily exposed to biomass fuel air pollution. FUNDING US National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences and WHO.

Global and regional burden of hospital admissions for severe acute lower respiratory infections in young children in 2010: a systematic analysis.

Summary Background The annual number of hospital admissions and in-hospital deaths due to severe acute lower respiratory infections (ALRI) in young children worldwide is unknown. We aimed to estimate the incidence of admissions and deaths for such infections in children younger than 5 years in 2010. Methods We estimated the incidence of admissions for severe and very severe ALRI in children younger than 5 years, stratified by age and region, with data from a systematic review of studies published between Jan 1, 1990, and March 31, 2012, and from 28 unpublished population-based studies. We applied these incidence estimates to population estimates for 2010, to calculate the global and regional burden in children admitted with severe ALRI in that year. We estimated in-hospital mortality due to severe and very severe ALRI by combining incidence estimates with case fatality ratios from hospital-based studies. Findings We identified 89 eligible studies and estimated that in 2010, 11·9 million (95% CI 10·3–13·9 million) episodes of severe and 3·0 million (2·1–4·2 million) episodes of very severe ALRI resulted in hospital admissions in young children worldwide. Incidence was higher in boys than in girls, the sex disparity being greatest in South Asian studies. On the basis of data from 37 hospital studies reporting case fatality ratios for severe ALRI, we estimated that roughly 265 000 (95% CI 160 000–450 000) in-hospital deaths took place in young children, with 99% of these deaths in developing countries. Therefore, the data suggest that although 62% of children with severe ALRI are treated in hospitals, 81% of deaths happen outside hospitals. Interpretation Severe ALRI is a substantial burden on health services worldwide and a major cause of hospital referral and admission in young children. Improved hospital access and reduced inequities, such as those related to sex and rural status, could substantially decrease mortality related to such infection. Community-based management of severe disease could be an important complementary strategy to reduce pneumonia mortality and health inequities. Funding WHO.