Nikit Abhyankar

GREENING THE GRID: Pathways to Integrate 175 Gigawatts of Renewable Energy into India’s Electric Grid, Vol. I—National Study EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Author(s): Palchak, D; Cochran, J; Deshmukh, R; Ehlen, A; Soonee, S; Narasimhan, S; Joshi, M; McBennett, B; Milligan, M; Sreedharan, P; Chernyakhovskiy, I; Abhyankar, N | Abstract: The use of renewable energy (RE) sources, primarily wind and solar generation, is poised to grow significantly within the Indian power system. The Government of India has established an installed capacity target of 175 gigawatts (GW) RE by 2022 that includes 60 GW of wind and 100 GW of solar, up from current capacities of 29 GW wind and 9 GW solar. India’s contribution to global efforts on climate mitigation extends this ambition to 40% non-fossil-based generation capacity by 2030. Global experience demonstrates that power systems can integrate wind and solar at this scale; however, evidence-based planning is important to achieve wind and solar integration at least cost. The purpose of this analysis is to evaluate the operation of India’s power grid with 175 GW of RE in order to identify potential cost and operational concerns and actions needed to efficiently integrate this level of wind and solar generation.

GREENING THE GRID: Pathways to Integrate 175 Gigawatts of Renewable Energy into India’s Electric Grid, Vol. I—National Study

Author(s): Palchak, D; Cochran, J; Deshmukh, R; Ehlen, A; Soonee, R; Narasimhan, S; Joshi, M; McBennett, B; Milligan, M; Sreedharan, P; Chernyakhovskiy, I; Abhyankar, N | Abstract: The use of renewable energy (RE) sources, primarily wind and solar generation, is poised to grow significantly within the Indian power system. The Government of India has established a target of 175 gigawatts (GW) of installed RE capacity by 2022, including 60 GW of wind and 100 GW of solar, up from 29 GW wind and 9 GW solar at the beginning of 2017. Using advanced weather and power system modeling made for this project, the study team is able to explore operational impacts of meeting India’s RE targets and identify actions that may be favorable for integration. Our primary tool is a detailed production cost model, which simulates optimal scheduling and dispatch of available generation in a future year (2022) by minimizing total production costs subject to physical, operational, and market constraints. Our team comprises a core group from the Power System Operation Corporation, Ltd. (POSOCO), which is the national grid operator (with representation from the National, Southern, and Western Regional Load Dispatch Centers) under Ministry of Power, National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab), and a broader modeling team that includes Central Electricity Authority (CEA), POWERGRID (the central transmission utility, CTU), and State Load Dispatch Centers in Maharashtra, Gujarat, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Rajasthan, and Andhra Pradesh. Our model includes high-resolution wind and solar data (forecasts and actuals), unique properties for each generator, CEA/CTU’s anticipated buildout of the power system, and enforced state-to-state transmission flows. Assuming the fulfillment of current efforts to provide better access to the physical flexibility of the power system, we find that power system balancing with 100 GW of solar and 60 GW of wind is achievable at 15-minute operational timescales with minimal RE curtailment. This RE capacity meets 22% of total projected 2022 electricity consumption in India with annual RE curtailment of 1.4%, in line with experiences in other countries with significant RE penetrations (Bird et al. 2016). Changes to operational practice can further reduce the cost of operating the power system and reduce RE curtailment. Coordinating scheduling and dispatch over a broader area is the largest driver to reduce costs, saving INR 6300 crore (USD 980 million) annually when optimized regionally. Lowering minimum operating levels of coal plants (from 70% to 40%) is the biggest driver to reduce RE curtailment—from 3.5% down to 0.76%. In fact, this operating property is more influential than faster thermal generation ramp rates in lowering the projected levels of curtailment. While this study does not answer every question relevant to planning for India’s 2022 RE targets, it is an important step toward analyzing operational challenges and cost saving opportunities using state-of-the-art power system planning tools. Further analysis can build upon this basis to explore optimal renewable resource and intrastate transmission siting, system stability during contingencies, and the influence of total power system investment costs on customer tariffs.

All Electric Passenger Vehicle Sales in India by 2030: Value proposition to Electric Utilities, Government, and Vehicle Owners:

Author(s): Abhyankar, Nikit; Gopal, Anand R.; Sheppard, Colin; Park, Won Young; Phadke, Amol A. | Abstract: In India, there is growing interest among policymakers, planners, and regulators for aggressive electrification of passenger vehicles. For example, Piyush Goyal, the Minister of State for India’s Ministry of Coal, Power, New and Renewable Energy, announced an aspirational goal of converting all vehicle sales in India to battery electric vehicles (BEVs) by 2030 (Economic Times, 2016). In 2012, India has already announced the National Mission on Electric Mobility (NMEM) sets a countrywide goal of deploying 6 to 7 million hybrid and electric vehicles (EVs) by 2020 (DHI, 2012). A major policy motivation for transport electrification is to reduce India’s oil import dependency. The objective of this paper is to assess the effect of full electrification of vehicle sales in India by 2030 on the key stakeholders such as BEV owners, electric utilities, and the government. Specifically, we attempt to answer the following questions: (a) How does the total vehicle ownership cost of BEVs compare with the conventional vehicles? (b) What is the additional load due BEV charging? (c) What is the impact on the power sector investments, costs, and utility revenue? (d) How can smart BEV charging help renewable energy grid integration? (e) What is the impact on the crude oil imports? (f) What is the impact on the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions?

Technical and Economic Aspects of Designing an Efficient Room Air-Conditioner Program in India

Author(s): Abhyankar, N; Shah, N; Phadke, A; Park, W | Abstract: Several studies have projected a massive increase in the demand for air conditioners (ACs) over the next two decades in India. By 2030, room ACs could add 140 GW to the peak load, equivalent to over 30% of the total projected peak load. Therefore, there is significant interest among policymakers, regulators, and utilities in managing room AC demand by enhancing energy efficiency. Building on the historical success of the Indian Bureau of Energy Efficiency’s star-labeling program, Energy Efficiency Services Limited recently announced a program to accelerate the sale of efficient room ACs using bulk procurement, similar to their successful UJALA light-emitting diode (LED) bulk procurement program. This report discusses some of the key considerations in designing a bulk procurement or financial incentive program for enhancing room AC efficiency in India. We draw upon our previous research to demonstrate the overall technical potential and price impact of room AC efficiency improvement and its technical feasibility in India. We also discuss the importance of using low global warming potential (GWP) refrigerants and smart AC equipment that is demand response (DR) ready.

India's Energy Data: The Urgent Need to Move from Patchwork Systems to a National Energy Information Agency

We propose that India should create a national Energy Information Agency – an Indian EIA or “indEIA.” India urgently needs a dedicated, central agency to collect, collate, disseminate, and facilitate the analysis of all essential energy-related data. There are a number of government support programs, for everything from renewable energy to electricity access, in the billions of dollars. Their efficacy is rarely understood, in part because of data limitations. An entity like indEIA will be critical in helping India leverage the creative powers of the national and international research community to provide reliable, cost-effective, and clean energy to its citizens. In addition, granular data can enable the industry as well as policymakers to move towards more customized, dynamic, and nimble solutions, instead of relying on averaged, aggregated, and nongranular time-series or spatial data. Thus our proposal envisions indEIA as the primary vehicle for curating and maintaining India’s energy data, a vital national (and global) asset.

Cost-Benefit of Improving the Efficiency of Room Air Conditioners (Inverter and Fixed Speed) in India

Author(s): Phadke, A; Shah, N; Abhyankar, N; Park, W; Diddi, S; Ahuja, D; Mukherjee, P; Walia, A | Abstract: Improving efficiency of air conditioners (ACs) typically involves improving the efficiency of various components such as compressors, heat exchangers, expansion valves, refrigerant,and fans. We estimate the incremental cost of improving the efficiency of room ACs based on the cost of improving the efficiency of its key components. Further, we estimate the retail price increase required to cover the cost of efficiency improvement, compare it with electricity bill savings, and calculate the payback period for consumers to recover the additional price of a more efficient AC. The finding that significant efficiency improvement is cost effective from a consumer perspective is robust over a wide range of assumptions. If we assume a 50% higher incremental price compared to our baseline estimate, the payback period for the efficiency level of 3.5 ISEER is 1.1 years. Given the findings of this study, establishing more stringent minimum efficiency performance criteria (one-star level) should be evaluated rigorously considering significant benefits to consumers, energy security, and environment