Nikolaos Dritsakis

Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor: an empirical investigation for Greece using causality analysis

This paper empirically examines the impact of tourism on the long-run economic growth of Greece by using causality analysis of real gross domestic product, real effective exchange rate and international tourism earnings. A Multivariate Auto Regressive (VAR) model is applied for the period 1960:I-2000:IV. The results of co-integration analysis suggest that there is one co-integrated vector among real gross domestic product, real effective exchange rate and international tourism earnings. Granger causality tests based on Error Correction Models (ECMs), have indicated that there is a ‘strong Granger causal’ relationship between international tourism earnings and economic growth, a ‘strong causal’ relationship between real exchange rate and economic growth, and simply ‘causal’ relationships between economic growth and international tourism earnings and between real exchange rate and international tourism earnings.

Cointegration analysis of German and British tourism demand for Greece

Abstract Germany and Great Britain are traditionally two of the most important sources of tourism for Greece. The purpose of this paper is to investigate changes in the long-run demand for tourism to Greece by these two countries. In order to explain the demand for tourism, we are using a number of leading macroeconomic variables, including income in origin countries (Germany and Great Britain), tourism prices in Greece, and transportation cost and exchanges rates between the three countries. Annual data from the three countries, covering the period from 1960 to 2000, are employed. Augmented Dickey–Fuller test for unit root is examined in the univariate framework and Johansens maximum likelihood procedure is used to test the cointegration method and to estimate the number of cointegrating vectors of VAR model. Error correction models are estimated to explain German and British demand for tourism to Greece.

Financial development and economic growth in Greece: an empirical investigation with Granger causality analysis

This paper empirically examines the causal relationship between the degree of openness of the economy, financial development and economic growth by using a multivariate autoregressive VAR model in Greece for the examined period 1960:I-2000:IV. The results of cointegration analysis suggest that there is one cointegrated vector among GDP, financial development and the degree of openness of the economy. Granger causality tests based on error correction models show that there is a causal relationship between financial development and economic growth, but also between the degree of openness of the economy and economic growth.

Tourism Development and Economic Growth in Seven Mediterranean Countries: A Panel Data Approach

This paper examines the relationship between economic growth and tourism development in seven Mediterranean countries. The purpose is to investigate empirically the long-run relationship between economic growth and tourism development in a multivariate model with tourism real receipts per capita, the number of international tourist arrivals per capita, real effective exchange rate, and real GDP per capita using the new heterogeneous panel cointegration technique. In pursuit of this objective, the tests of panel cointegration and fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) are conducted, using panel data. The data used in this study are annual, covering the period 1980–2007.

A causal relationship between government spending and economic development: an empirical examination of the Greek economy

During the past few years, in many countries, both developed and developing, there has been a tendency to increase government spending. This article intends to examine this tendency of the public sector as well as the existing relationship between the extent of government spending and economic development. The data used cover a time period between 1960 and 2001. An effort is made to determine causal relationships between spending and economic development through the use of Wagners theory.

An econometric model of tourist demand: the case of Greece.

Abstract Tourism today includes a wide array of economic and social activities on an international scale and covers all social classes. It is directly related with the development of every modern society and aims at meeting human needs in a developed culture so as to create the conditions for advancing understanding and kinship among the different peoples in order to achieve a better future for mankind. The tourism sector does not constitute a specific sector in an economy, but includes goods and services from various sectors. The present study focuses on foreign tourism due to its primary influence on changes made in the social and economic structure of the tourist-host country. This study employs an econometric model of tourist demand in a developed tourist market such as that in Greece which aims to improve its tourist product.

Exports, investments and economic development of pre-accession countries of the European Union: an empirical investigation of Bulgaria and Romania

This paper attempts to analyse the relationship between exports, investments and economic development in two pre-accession countries of the European Union, Bulgaria and Romania. For investigation of this relationship a multivariate autoregressive VAR model is used. The results of cointegration analysis showed that there is one cointegrated vector among exports, investments and economic growth for the two countries. Granger causality tests based on error correction models (ECM) indicated that there is a ‘strong Granger causal’ relation between economic growth and exports as well as between investments and exports for the two countries. In addition, economic development and capital accumulation in an economy seem to have just as much of an influence on exports as exports have on capital accumulation and economic development.

Cointegration analysis of tourism revenues by the member countries of European Union to Greece.

The countries of Europe and especially European Union member countries are, traditionally, amongst the most important tourism markets for Greece. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the long-run changes in tourism revenues from European Union member countries to Greece. In order to explain tourism revenues we are using a number of leading macroeconomic variables, including the real income of 15 member-countries of EU, the exchange rate and some dummies, which examine the crises periods for tourism. The quarterly data that are used for this paper cover the period from 1960:1 to 2000:4. The augmented Dickey-Fuller for unit root is examined in the univariate framework and the Johansen’s maximum likelihood procedure is used to test the cointegration method and to estimate the number of cointegrated vectors of ‘VAR model’Vector autoregressive processes. Error correction model is estimated to explain tourism revenues from European Union member countries to Greece. The results of this paper have shown that the real income of 15 membercountries of EU and the exchange rate have a positive effect on the tourism revenues of Greece, whereas some political crises have a negative effect on them.

Selecting Value-at-Risk methods according to their hidden characteristics

The foremost concern of a modern risk manager is to estimate Value-at-Risk (VaR), that is the maximum loss likely to occur over the next two weeks for a given confidence level. Although widely spread as a standard measure for quantifying market risk, most of the techniques involved in measuring VaR are based on unrealistic assumptions. The purpose of this paper is to highlight the deficiencies of these techniques and to illustrate the exact steps for the estimation of portfolio-VaR according to all basic methods, namely, the variance-covariance (VC), the historical simulation method (HS) and the Monte Carlo simulation method (MC). Furthermore, the paper examines the accuracy of both the HS and the MC methods according to the Basel II regulatory framework.

Seasonal tourism demand models from USA to Greece.

Tourists from USA, which is Greeces third major market after the European Union and Japan, represent 6% of international tourist arrivals in Greece in 2002. The average annual growth rate of tourist arrivals from USA was 20% for the period 1960–2000. Despite the political, economic and military crises, which dominated in the examined period, tourist arrivals to Greece from USA have continued to grow slowly. Therefore, it is essential to consider the economic factors influencing this tourism demand. The purpose of the paper is to estimate the elasticities among origin countrys income, consumer price indices of both countries and transportation cost of inbound tourism from USA to Greece, exchange rate, and prices of goods and services of a competitive country using seasonally unadjusted quarterly data. Given Turkeys proximity to Greece, it is also useful to determine whether Greece and Turkey are substitute or complementary destinations using tourism demand models. In addition, vector error correction models (VECM) are examined in order to illustrate the seasonal effect of tourism demand in USA for Greece.