Nikolaos Giannellis

Asymmetric volatility spillovers between stock market and real activity: Evidence from the UK and the US

This paper examines the short-run dynamic relationships between stock market and real activity, within a country, for the UK and the US. The Cross Correlation Function testing procedure is applied to test for causality in mean and in variance between the stock market and the real economic sector. Besides variance causation, volatility spillover effects are examined through the multivariate specification form of the Exponential GARCH model. There is evidence of significant reciprocal volatility spillovers between the two sectors within a country, implying stronger interdependencies in the UK rather than in the US and asymmetric behavior only in the case of the UK.

Nonlinear Exchange Rate Adjustment in the Enlarged Eurozone: Evidence and Implications for Candidate Countries

This paper sheds light on the importance of the validity of PPP hypothesis for the accessing process of the candidate countries towards EMU. The evidence of nonlinear adjustment in real exchange rates suggests the estimation of a nonlinear SETAR model. While linear half-life estimates are biased upward (five years on average), SETAR half-life estimates imply a faster reverting process (1.5 years on average). Moreover, we found that TPI-based real exchange rates are more appropriate than CPI-based real exchange rates in testing for PPP hypothesis. For the cluster of EMU countries and for the pre-EMU period, our nonlinear model confirms stationarity for the majority of the TPI-based real exchange rates with half-life estimates less than a year.