Nikolaus Gotsch

Fungicide use under risk in Swiss wheat production

The short-run effects of fungicide application on economic risk and the effects of risk on fungicide use in Swiss wheat production are empirically explored. A quadratic production function model is developed. With the help of the moment-based approach, marginal contributions of fungicides (representing controlled inputs) and of rain (representing uncontrolled inputs) to the variances of yield and revenue are analyzed. It is not possible to show risk-reducing effects of fungicides on yield or revenue. At low rain quantities during the vegetation period fungicides have a statistically significant risk-increasing effect on revenue. Increasing risk leads Swiss wheat growers to use more fungicide. This increase is statistically significant at higher levels of revenue. For example, when risk is doubled fungicide inputs are raised by 44% at the highest revenue quartile.

Cocoa biotechnology : Status, constraints and future prospects

Current status and future prospects of cocoa biotechnology are reviewed. Potential for improving and modifying cocoa bean yield and quality are discussed. Prospects for producing cocoa components in vitro and cocoa butter substitutes in crops other than cocoa are examined. Application of complementary research tools is expected to allow significant enhancements in cocoa bean yield. Furthermore, cocoa varieties with modified characteristics are likely to become available, in particular varieties with increased cocoa butter content and modified fatty acid patterns. In vitro production of cocoa components is less likely.

Future importance of biotechnology in arable farming

In agriculture, biotechnology and genetic engineering are expected to change production methods, the products themselves and the structure of the whole agricultural sector. We have conducted an international survey of plant and microbial biologists, plant breeders and experts in product development and management to gauge the likely directions and time-scales for such developments. The survey aims to provide useful data for realistic discussion on the extent, purpose and effects of future developments in arable agriculture.

Forecasting future developments in crop protection

Abstract An international survey using recognized crop protection experts has been carried out using the Delphi method. This has resulted in a forecast of the possible development of biological and chemical crop protection in arable farming within the next 20 years. The results of the survey show that progress will continue but no major breakthroughs can be expected that will cause discontinuities such as a dramatic improvement of resistance traits or the extended use of hyperparasites and predators to control pests and diseases. Public opinion, economic conditions and the political and legal framework are seen as the major factors that will influence the direction of research and development.

Problem Identification and Knowledge Acquisition for the Solution of Pest Problems: A Suggestion for a Comprehensive Approach

The reduction of pre- and post-harvest yield losses due to pest attack represents a substantial contribution to the increase in food supply which will be absolutely essential in future. Not only must more food be produced but, in addition, this must be accomplished in an ecologically, economically and socially sustainable manner in a broader concept of food security improvement and poverty alleviation. Integrated pest management can play a key role in this process. Firstly, constraints and anticipated global food production requirements are presented in an overview. This is followed by a discussion of the various knowledge acquisition techniques for identifying and eliminating knowledge gaps with a view to solving pest problems in a systematic manner. It is concluded that the development of better integrated approaches based on an expanding theoretical, methodological and empirical basis will produce solutions which are more effective, sustainable and competitive compared with the currently prevailing procedures for pest problem solution.