Nikolaus H. Buenning

Correlations between components of the water balance and burned area reveal new insights for predicting forest fire area in the southwest United States

We related measurements of annual burned area in the southwest United States during 1984-2013 to records of climate variability. Within forests, annual burned area correlated at least as strongly with spring-summer vapour pressure deficit (VPD) as with 14 other drought-related metrics, including more complex metrics that explicitly represent fuel moisture. Particularly strong correlations with VPD arise partly because this term dictates the atmospheric moisture demand. Additionally, VPD responds to moisture supply, which is difficult to measure and model regionally due to complex micrometeorology, land cover and terrain. Thus, VPD appears to be a simple and holistic indicator of regional water balance. Coupled with the well-known positive influence of prior-year cold season precipitation on fuel availability and connectivity, VPD may be utilised for burned area forecasts and also to infer future trends, though these are subject to othercomplicatingfactorssuchaslandcoverchangeandmanagement.Assuminganaggressivegreenhousegasemissions scenario, climate models predict mean spring-summer VPD will exceed the highest recorded values in the southwest in nearly40%ofyearsbythemiddleofthiscentury.Theseresultsforewarnofcontinuedincreasesinburnedforestareainthe southwest United States, and likely elsewhere, when fuels are not limiting. Additional keywords: fire danger, tree mortality, warming.

Causes and Implications of Extreme Atmospheric Moisture Demand during the Record-Breaking 2011 Wildfire Season in the Southwestern United States

AbstractIn 2011, exceptionally low atmospheric moisture content combined with moderately high temperatures to produce a record-high vapor pressure deficit (VPD) in the southwestern United States (SW). These conditions combined with record-low cold-season precipitation to cause widespread drought and extreme wildfires. Although interannual VPD variability is generally dominated by temperature, high VPD in 2011 was also driven by a lack of atmospheric moisture. The May–July 2011 dewpoint in the SW was 4.5 standard deviations below the long-term mean. Lack of atmospheric moisture was promoted by already very dry soils and amplified by a strong ocean-to-continent sea level pressure gradient and upper-level convergence that drove dry northerly winds and subsidence upwind of and over the SW. Subsidence drove divergence of rapid and dry surface winds over the SW, suppressing southerly moisture imports and removing moisture from already dry soils. Model projections developed for the fifth phase of the Coupled Mod...

Paired Oxygen Isotope Records Reveal Modern North American Atmospheric Dynamics During the Holocene

The Pacific North American (PNA) teleconnection has a strong influence on North American climate. Instrumental records and century-scale reconstructions indicate an accelerating tendency towards the positive PNA state since the mid-1850s, but much less is known about long-term PNA variability. Here we reconstruct PNA-like climate variability during the mid- and late Holocene using paired oxygen isotope records from two regions in North America with robust, anticorrelated isotopic response to the modern PNA. We identify mean states of more negative and positive PNA-like climate during the mid- and late Holocene, respectively. Superimposed on the secular change between states is a robust, quasi-200-year oscillation, which we associate with the de Vries solar cycle. These findings suggest the persistence of PNA-like climate variability throughout the mid- and late Holocene, provide evidence for modulation of PNA over multiple timescales and may help researchers de-convolve PNA pattern variation from other factors reflected in palaeorecords.

SPEEDY-IER: A fast atmospheric GCM with water isotope physics

The interpretation of variations in the global isotopic composition of precipitation and water vapor can be strengthened using an isotope-enabled atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM). Here we present a fast-physics atmospheric circulation model suitable for long ensemble integrations: the efficient AGCM Simplified Parameterizations, Primitive Equation Dynamics (SPEEDY), with newly added water isotope physics. The model (SPEEDY-isotope-enabled reconstructions (IER)) simulates the hydrological cycle and isotope ratios in atmospheric water at a fraction of the computational cost of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)-class GCMs. Despite its simplified physics, SPEEDY-IER captures many key features of the observed range of tropical, subtropical, and midlatitude isotope variability when compared to the Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation, Stable Water Isotope Intercomparison Group (SWING2) simulations, and satellite observations of isotopes in vapor. The incorporation of water isotopes in SPEEDY required two updates to the models physics: postcondensational exchange associated with falling rain and soil hydrology. It is evident that these physical processes are essential for a skillful simulation of isotopes in precipitation and vapor. We conduct a suite of sensitivity tests to constrain effective parameters in the rain exchange and land models and assess the impact of the new physics to isotope simulations. The strong sensitivity to parameter choice in these components reaffirms the importance of land-atmosphere interactions and rain-vapor exchange on stable water isotope ratios in the atmosphere and thus on the interpretation of paleoclimate records. The utility of SPEEDY-IER for climate applications is discussed.

Diagnosing Atmospheric Influences on the Interannual 18O/16O Variations in Western U.S. Precipitation

Many climate proxies in geological archives are dependent on the isotopic content of precipitation (δ18Op), which over sub-annual timescales has been linked to temperature, condensation height, atmospheric circulation, and post-condensation exchanges in the western U.S. However, many proxies do not resolve temporal changes finer than interannual-scales. This study explores causes of the interannual variations in δ18Op within the western U.S. Simulations with the Isotope-incorporated Global Spectral Model (IsoGSM) revealed an amplifying influence of post-condensation exchanges (i.e., raindrop evaporation and vapor equilibration) on interannual δ18Op variations throughout the western U.S. Mid-latitude and subtropical vapor tagging simulations showed that the influence of moisture advection on δ18Op was relatively strong in the Pacific Northwest, but weak over the rest of the western U.S. The vapor tags correlated well with interannual variations in the 18O/16O composition of vapor, an indication that isotopes in vapor trace atmospheric circulation. However, vertical-tagging simulations revealed a strong influence of condensation height on δ18Op in California. In the interior of the western U.S., a strong temperature effect was found only after annual mean temperatures were weighted by monthly precipitation totals. These multiple influences on δ18Op complicate interpretations of western U.S. climate proxies that are derived from isotopes in precipitation.

Solar cycle modulation of the Pacific–North American teleconnection influence on North American winter climate

We investigate the role of the 11-year solar cycle in modulating the Pacific‐North American (PNA) influence on North American winter climate. The PNA appears to play an important conduit between solar forcing and surface climate. The low solar (LS) activity may induce an atmospheric circulation pattern that resembles the positive phase of the PNA, resulting in a significant warming over northwestern North America and significant dry conditions in the Pacific Northwest, Canadian Prairies and the Ohio-Tennessee-lower Mississippi River Valley. The solar-induced changes in surface climate share more than 67% and 14% of spatial variances in the PNA-induced temperature and precipitation changes for 1950‐2010 and 1901‐2010 periods, respectively. These distinct solar signatures in North American climate may contribute to deconvolving modern and past continental-scale climate changes and improve our ability to interpret paleoclimate records in the region.

Recent contrasting winter temperature changes over North America linked to enhanced positive Pacific‐North American pattern

Recently enhanced contrasts in winter (December-January-February) mean temperatures and extremes (cold southeast and warm northwest) across North America have triggered intensive discussion both within and outside of the scientific community, but the mechanisms responsible for these contrasts remain unresolved. Here we use a combination of observations and reanalysis data sets to show that the strengthened contrasts in winter mean temperatures and extremes across North America are closely related to an enhancement of the positive Pacific-North American (PNA) pattern during the second half of the 20th century. Recent intensification of positive PNA events is associated with amplified planetary waves over North America, driving cold-air outbreaks into the southeast and warm tropical/subtropical air into the northwest. This not only results in a strengthened winter mean temperature contrast but increases the occurrence of the opposite-signed extremes in these two regions.

The role of soil processes in δ18O terrestrial climate proxies

A paleoclimate interpretation of a terrestrial hydrologic proxy such as the δ18O of tree cellulose or speleothem calcite may be biased or misinterpreted if the isotopic composition of the soil water from which the proxy originated undergoes isotopic exchange or fractionation. In this study, we use a global isotope-enabled land surface model to investigate how the δ18O of precipitation may be altered in a soil column due to evaporation and vertical moisture transport. In order to assess how precipitation and evaporation contribute to the soil water isotopic variability, we compare seasonal and interannual changes in simulated xylem water δ18O within a control simulation and in a suite of sensitivity experiments where the effects of precipitation δ18O, water vapor δ18O, and soil water evaporation are independently removed. The simulations, carried out for the period 1979 to 2004, reveal that in semiarid regions, such as the southwest United States, the seasonal cycle in xylem water δ18O is strongly affected by evaporative loss during the dry season and evaporation can also constitute as much as 50% of the interannual δ18O variance. Additional simulations, including soil water tagging experiments, indicate that upward fluxes of soil water occur during drier periods. For soil water δ18O profiles that are isotopically more depleted in 18O at depth, this imparts a low isotopic signature to xylem water δ18O during such dry intervals. Hence, without taking into account vertical moisture transport in the soils, low δ18O years could be misinterpreted as wet conditions (due to decreased evaporative enrichment) when instead drier conditions are equally as likely.

Evaluating hydrological influences on mid-latitude δ18Op in the Middle East

The oxygen isotope ratio of precipitation (δ18Op) in the mid-latitudes varies in response to multiple climate influences imposing significant challenges to the interpretation of climate proxies such as the oxygen isotope ratio of lake and speleothem calcite (δ18Oc) that incorporates an isotopic finger print of precipitation. This challenge is particularly acute for pre-historic time periods when climate forcings differed significantly from modern and consequently, internal feedbacks altered the transport of moisture as well as the rate of fractionation that determine the isotopic composition of atmospheric moisture. Here we investigate how δ18Op from the mid-Holocene was influenced by internal feedbacks in the Holocene with an isotope-enabled climate model that simulates the atmospheric response to changing boundary conditions and different climatic forcing. We find that δ18Op during the Mid-Holocene was lower than present day consistent with published proxy records. However, this lower value cannot be simply explained by basic isotope drivers such as precipitation amount or seasonality. Rather, we find that the combination of changes in local surface temperature, precipitation amount, upstream isotopic composition of vapor as well as the season can quantitatively explain the isotopic differences between the mid-Holocene and present day.

The response of winter Pacific North American pattern to strong volcanic eruptions

The impact of volcanic eruptions on large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns has been well studied, but very little effort has been made on relating the response of Pacific North American (PNA) pattern to strong volcanic eruptions. Here we investigate the response of winter PNA to the largest volcanic eruptions using three different reanalysis datasets. We demonstrate a significant positive PNA circulation response to strong volcanic forcing in the first winter following the eruptions. This circulation pattern is associated with enhanced southwesterly winds advecting warm air from the tropical/subtropical Pacific into northwestern North America and leads to a significant warming in the region. However, no significant PNA signal is found for the second post-eruption winter. The PNA responses to volcanic forcing depend partly upon the modulation of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. When the ENSO influence is linearly removed, this positive PNA signal is still robust during the first post-eruption winter, albeit with slightly decreased magnitude and significance. Our findings provide new evidence for volcanic forcing of the Pacific and North American climates. The results presented here may contribute to deconvolving modern and past continental-scale climate changes over North America.