Nikolaus Wolf

History and Industry Location: Evidence from German Airports

A central prediction of a large class of theoretical models is that industry location is not uniquely determined by fundamentals. Despite the theoretical prominence of this idea, there is little systematic evidence in support of its empirical relevance. This paper exploits the division of Germany after World War II and the reunification of East and West Germany as an exogenous shock to industry location. Focusing on a particular economic activity, an air hub, we develop a body of evidence that the relocation of Germanys air hub from Berlin to Frankfurt in response to division is a shift between multiple steady states.

Tear Down this Wall: On the Persistence of Borders in Trade

Why do borders still matter for economic activity? The reunification of Germany in 1990 provides a unique natural experiment for examining the effect of political borders on trade. With the fall of the Berlin Wall and the rapid formation of a political and economic union, strong and strictly enforced administrative barriers to trade between East Germany and West Germany were eliminated completely within a very short period of time. Remarkable persistence in intra‐German trade patterns along the former East‐West border suggests that border effects are neither statistical artefacts nor driven by administrative barriers to trade, but arise from economic fundamentals. Pourquoi est‐ce que les frontieres ont encore de l’importance dans les activites economiques? La reunification de l’Allemagne en 1990 a donne l’occasion d’une experience naturelle unique pour examiner les effets des frontieres sur le commerce. Avec la chute du Mur de Berlin, et la formation rapide d’une union economique et politique forte, il y a eu elimination stricte et complete des barrieres administratives au commerce entre l’Allemagne de l’Est et l’Allemagne de l’Ouest en un court laps de temps. La persistance remarquable des patterns de commerce intra‐allemands autour de la frontiere Est‐Ouest suggere que ces effets de frontieres ne sont ni le resultat d’artefacts statistiques ni le resultat de barrieres administratives, mais qu’ils emergent de certains facteurs economiques fondamentaux.

Economic nationalism and economic integration: the Austro‐Hungarian Empire in the late nineteenth century

This paper seeks to reconcile two seemingly contradictory strands in the literature on economic development in the late nineteenth century Habsburg Empire - one emphasizing the centrifugal impact of rising intra-empire of nationalism, the other stressing significant improvements in market integration across the empire. We argue that the process of market integration was systematically asymmetric, shaped by intensifying intra-empire nationality conflicts. While grain markets in Austria-Hungary became overall more integrated over time, they also became systematically biased: regions with a similar ethno-linguistic composition of their population came to display significantly smaller price gaps between each other than regions with different compositions. The emergence and persistence of this differential integration cannot be explained by changes in infrastructure and transport costs, simple geographical features or asymmetric integration with neighbouring regions abroad. Instead, differential integration along ethno-linguistic lines was driven by the formation of ethno-linguistic networks. Finally, the analysis shows that the emerging pre-war regional integration patterns – shaped by nationalist sentiment – effectively anticipated the post-war settlement: the fault lines along which the Habsburg Empire was to break up eventually are evident in the price data about a quarter of a century or so before the outbreak of the First World War.

Shooting on a Moving Target: Explaining European Bank Rates during the Interwar Period

This paper describes the monetary policy response of countries during the inter-war period. How did central banks react to the Great Depression? How did countries balance the externals demands of the gold standard with domestic policy pressures? What was the optimal level of international policy coordination? We use weekly data over the period 1925-1936 to estimate central bank rate reaction functions for a panel of 22 countries during the inter-war gold standard. The estimates suggest to us changing objectives for monetary policy. Countries moved away from the sole objective of convertibility and towards a more ‘modern’ monetary policy based on exchange rate stabilization, but not yet output stabilization or even modern price level targeting. Importantly, this move to exchange rate stabilization was accompanied by the formation of monetary policy blocs around pre-existing economic relations. Countries’ interwar policy choices offer lessons for countries remaining in or choosing to join the European Monetary Union today.

Was Germany Ever United? Evidence from Intra- and International Trade, 1885–1933

When did Germany become economically integrated? Within the framework of a gravity model, based on a new data set of about 40,000 observations on trade flows within and across the borders of Germany over the period 1885 – 1933, I explore the geography of trade costs across Central Europe. There are three key results. First, the German Empire before 1914 was a poorly integrated economy, both relative to integration across the borders of the German state and in absolute terms. Second, this internal fragmentation resulted from cultural heterogeneity, from administrative borders within Germany, and from geographical barriers that divided Germany along natural trade routes into eastern and western parts. Third, internal integration improved, while external integration worsened after World War I and again with the Great Depression, in part because of border changes along the lines of ethno-linguistic heterogeneity. By the end of the Weimar Republic in 1933, Germany was reasonably well integrated.

Endogeneity of Currency Areas and Trade Blocs: Evidence from the Inter-War Period

Empirical research on the gravity model of international trade in the wake of Rose (2000) affirms that currency union formation doubles or triples trade. However, currency unions could also be established precisely because trade among their members was already high. In OLS estimation, this would cause endogeneity bias. The present paper employs both fixed effects and binary choice methods to trace endogeneity in the formation of historical currency arrangements. Studying the formation of currency blocs in the 1930s, we find strong evidence of endogeneity. We work with country group fixed effects and find that already in the 1920s, trade within the later currency blocs was up to three times higher than on average. The formal establishment of these blocs had only insignificant or even negative effects on the coefficients. We also employ a probit approach to predict membership in these later arrangements on the basis of data from the 1920s. Results are remarkably robust and again indicate strong self-selection bias. Evaluated against the control groups, treatment effects in the 1930s were mostly absent. Even the post-war currency arrangements are visible in the inter-war data. In line with the theory of optimum currency areas, our results caution against optimism about trade creation by currency unions.

Endogeneity of Currency Areas and Trade Blocs: Evidence from a Natural Experiment

This paper draws on a natural experiment to examine the effects of policy arrangements on international trade. We study data on trade and currency bloc formation in Europe after the Great Depression. Far removed from being customs or currency unions, these blocs could not create much trade and should be mere placebos. Yet under conventional approaches to the gravity equation, they exhibit highly significant and sometimes very large trade effects. We employ treatment effect methods from labor econometrics to identify endogeneity both along the time axis and in the cross section. We find pervasive evidence of such endogeneity, which standard estimates of the gravity equation fail to detect. These findings are confirmed by matching models designed to eliminate the endogeneity of bloc formation itself. Our results caution against the significant and high trade creation effects of political arrangements often reported in the gravity literature.

The frequency of wars

Wars are increasingly frequent, and the trend has been steadily upward since 1870. The main tradition of Western political and philosophical thought suggests that extensive economic globalization and democratization over this period should have reduced appetites for war far below their current level. This view is clearly incomplete: at best, confounding factors are at work. Here, we explore the capacity to wage war. Most fundamentally, the growing number of sovereign states has been closely associated with the spread of democracy and increasing commercial openness, as well as the number of bilateral conflicts. Trade and democracy are traditionally thought of as goods, both in themselves, and because they reduce the willingness to go to war, conditional on the national capacity to do so. But the same factors may also have been increasing the capacity for war, and so its frequency.(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

The Location of the UK Cotton Textiles Industry in 1838: A Quantitative Analysis

We examine the geography of cotton textiles in Britain in 1838 to test claims about why the industry came to be so heavily concentrated in Lancashire. Our analysis considers both first and second nature aspects of geography including the availability of water power, humidity, coal prices, market access and sunk costs. We show that some of these characteristics have substantial explanatory power. Moreover, we exploit the change from water to steam power to show that the persistent effect of first nature characteristics on industry location can be explained by a combination of sunk costs and agglomeration effects.

Agricultural Productivity Across Prussia During the Industrial Revolution: A Thünen Perspective

This paper explores the pattern of agricultural productivity across 19th century Prussia to gain new insights on the causes of the OLittle DivergenceO between European regions. We argue that access to urban demand was the dominant factor explaining the gradient of agricultural productivity as had been suggested much earlier theoretically by von ThŸnen (1826) and empirically by Engel (1867). This is in line with recent findings on a limited degree of interregional market integration in 19th century Prussia.