Nikolay Kiryanov

Hazardous alcohol drinking and premature mortality in Russia: a population based case-control study

BACKGROUND The reason for the low life expectancy in Russian men and large fluctuations in mortality are unknown. We investigated the contribution of alcohol, and hazardous drinking in particular, to male mortality in a typical Russian city. METHODS Cases were all deaths in men aged 25-54 years living in Izhevsk occurring between Oct 20, 2003, to Oct 3, 2005. Controls were selected at random from the city population and were frequency matched to deaths by age. Interviews with proxy informants living in the same household as cases were done between Dec 11, 2003, and Nov, 16 2005, and were obtained for 62% (1750/2835) of cases and 57% (1750/3078) of controls. We ascertained frequency and usual amount of beer, wine, and spirits consumed and frequency of consumption of manufactured ethanol-based liquids not intended to be drunk (non-beverage alcohol), and markers of problem drinking. Complete information on markers of problem drinking, frequency of alcohol consumption, education, and smoking was available for 1468 cases and 1496 controls. FINDINGS 751 (51%) cases were classed as problem drinkers or drank non-beverage alcohol, compared with 192 (13%) controls. The mortality odds ratio (OR) for these men, compared with those who either abstained or were non-problematic beverage drinkers, was 6.0 (95% CI 5.0-7.3) after adjustment for smoking and education. The mortality ORs for drinking non-beverage alcohol in the past year (yes vs no) was 9.2 (7.2-11.7) after adjustment for age. Adjustment for volume of ethanol consumed from beverages lowered the OR to 8.3 (6.5-10.7), and further adjustment for education and smoking reduced it to 7.0 (5.5-9.0). A strong direct gradient with mortality was seen for frequency of non-beverage alcohol drinking independent of volume of beverage ethanol consumed. 43% of mortality was attributable to hazardous drinking (problem drinking or non-beverage alcohol consumption, or both) adjusted for smoking and education. INTERPRETATION Almost half of all deaths in working age men in a typical Russian city may be accounted for by hazardous drinking. Our analyses provide indirect support for the contention that the sharp fluctuations seen in Russian mortality in the early 1990s could be related to hazardous drinking as indicated by consumption of non-beverage alcohol.

Prevalence and socio-economic distribution of hazardous patterns of alcohol drinking: study of alcohol consumption in men aged 25–54 years in Izhevsk, Russia

Aim To estimate the prevalence of hazardous drinking and its socio-economic distribution among Russian men. Design Participants were an age-stratified, population-based random sample of men aged 25–54 years living in Izhevsk, a city in the Urals, Russia. Interviewers administered questionnaires to cohabiting proxy respondents about behavioural indicators of hazardous drinking derived from frequency of hangover, frequency of drinking beverage spirits, episodes in the last year of extended periods of drunkenness during which the participant withdraws from normal life (zapoi), consumption of alcoholic substances not intended to be drunk (surrogates) and socio-economic position. Logistic regression was used to examine associations between socio-economic position and indicators of hazardous drinking in the past year. Findings Of 1750 men, 79% drank spirits and 8% drank surrogates at least sometimes in the past year; 25% drank spirits and 4% drank surrogates at least weekly and 10% had had an episode of zapoi in the past year. After adjustment for other socio-economic factors, education was strongly associated with indicators of hazardous drinking. Men with the lowest level of education compared to the highest level of education had an odds ratio of surrogate drinking of 7.7 (95% CI 3.2–18.5), of zapoi of 5.2 (2.3–11.8) and of frequent hangover of 3.7 (1.8–7.4). These indicators of hazardous drinking were also independently strongly associated with being unemployed (versus employed) and with levels of household wealth/amenities. Associations of all these variables with daily consumption of beverage spirits were weaker. Conclusion Using a novel range of indicator variables of hazardous drinking, this paper shows that the prevalence of these behaviours is high among working-age men in this Russian city. Moreover, these hazardous behaviours show very clear socio-economic patterns, with particularly high prevalence among those who have had the least education and are not in employment. In contrast, more conventional measures of heavy drinking, based on frequency of consumption of beverage spirits, are less prevalent and show much weaker associations with socio-economic position.

Alcohol increases circulatory disease mortality in Russia: acute and chronic effects or misattribution of cause?

Background There is a consensus that the large fluctuations in mortality seen in Russia in the past two decades can be attributed to trends in alcohol consumption. However, the precise mechanisms linking alcohol to mortality from circulatory disease remain unclear. It has recently been argued that a substantial number of such deaths currently ascribed to cardiovascular disorders are misclassified cases of acute alcohol poisoning. Methods Analysis of routine mortality data and of a case–control study of mortality among working-age (25–54 years) men occurring in the Russian city of Izhevsk, west of the Ural mountains, 2003–05. Interviews were carried out with proxy informants for both the dead cases (N = 1750) and the controls (N = 1750) selected at random from a population register. Mortality was analysed according to indicators of alcohol problems. Results Hazardous drinking was associated with an increased risk of death from circulatory diseases as a whole [odds ratio (OR) = 4.14, 95% confidence interval (CI) 3.23, 5.31] adjusted for age, smoking and education. The association with alcoholic cardiomyopathy was particularly strong (OR = 15.7, 95% CI 9.5, 25.9). Although there was no association with deaths from myocardial infarction (MI; OR = 1.17, 95% CI 0.59, 2.32), there was a strong association with the aggregate of all other ischaemic heart disease (IHD; OR = 4.04, 95% CI 2.79, 5.84). Stronger associations for each of these causes (other than MI) were seen with whether or not the man had drunk very heavily in the previous week. However, associations also remained when analyses were restricted to subjects with no evidence of recent heavy drinking, suggesting that misclassification of acute alcohol poisonings is unlikely to explain these overall associations. Conclusion Taken as a whole, the available evidence suggests that the positive association of alcohol with increased cardiovascular disease mortality may be best explained as being the result of a combination of chronic and acute alcohol consumption resulting in alcohol-related cardiac disorders, especially cardiomyopathy, rather than being due to misclassification of acute alcohol poisoning. Further work is required to understand the mechanisms underlying the link between heavy alcohol consumption and deaths classified as being due to IHD (other than MI).

Hazardous alcohol consumption is a major factor in male premature mortality in a typical Russian city: prospective cohort study 2003-2009.

Introduction Russia has experienced massive fluctuations in mortality at working ages over the past three decades. Routine data analyses suggest that these are largely driven by fluctuations in heavy alcohol drinking. However, individual-level evidence supporting alcohol having a major role in Russian mortality comes from only two case-control studies, which could be subject to serious biases due to their design. Methods and Findings A prospective study of mortality (2003–9) of 2000 men aged 25–54 years at recruitment was conducted in the city of Izhevsk, Russia. This cohort was free from key limitations inherent in the design of the two earlier case-control studies. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate hazard ratios of all-cause mortality by alcohol drinking type as reported by a proxy informant. Hazardous drinkers were defined as those who either drank non-beverage alcohols or were reported to regularly have hangovers or other behaviours related to heavy drinking episodes. Over the follow-up period 113 men died. Compared to non-hazardous drinkers and abstainers, men who drank hazardously had appreciably higher mortality (HR = 3.4, 95% CI 2.2, 5.1) adjusted for age, smoking and education. The population attributable risk percent (PAR%) for hazardous drinking was 26% (95% CI 14,37). However, larger effects were seen in the first two years of follow-up, with a HR of 4.6 (2.5, 8.2) and a corresponding PAR% of 37% (17, 51). Interpretation This prospective cohort study strengthens the evidence that hazardous alcohol consumption has been a major determinant of mortality among working age men in a typical Russian city. As such the similar findings of the previous case-control studies cannot be explained as artefacts of limitations of their design. As Russia struggles to raise life expectancy, which even in 2009 was only 62 years among men, control of hazardous drinking must remain a top public health priority.

A case–control analysis of socio-economic and marital status differentials in alcohol- and non-alcohol-related mortality among working-age Russian males

BACKGROUND We examined the role of socio-economic status (SES) and marital status in premature mortality among working-age Russian males. Life expectancy among this group dropped sharply following the collapse of the Soviet Union and has yet to recover despite the relative economic and political stability of the last decade. METHODS We employed individual-level data from a large-scale, population-based, case-control study (n = 3500). Adjusting for age group, hazardous drinking and smoking status, we estimated mortality odds ratios to determine the impact of SES and marital status on premature mortality due to all, alcohol- and non-alcohol-related causes of death. RESULTS Results revealed clear protective effects of SES and marital status against premature mortality. Although the effects for marital status were significant across alcohol- and non-alcohol-related causes of death, the effects of SES were largely limited to non-alcohol-related causes of death. When heavy drinkers were excluded from the analysis, however, SES was found to protect against premature mortality for alcohol-related causes. CONCLUSION While hazardous drinking is known to be a leading cause of premature mortality among working-age Russian males, it is unwise to ignore other factors. Given the substantial social and economic impacts in Russia of the dissolution of the Soviet Union, it is important to examine the health effects of SES and marital status and other social forces in the nation. Our results reveal that while Russia has a very different past in terms of medicine, public health and economic institutions, it currently faces public health threats that follow similar patterns to those found in Western nations.

Identifying the determinants of premature mortality in Russia: overcoming a methodological challenge

BackgroundIt is thought that excessive alcohol consumption is related to the high mortality among working age men in Russia. Moreover it has been suggested that alcohol is a key proximate driver of the very sharp fluctuations in mortality seen in this group since the mid-1980s. Designing an individual-level study suitable to address the potential acute effects of alcohol consumption on mortality in Russia has posed a challenge to epidemiologists, especially because of the need to identify factors that could underlie the rapid changes up and down in mortality rates that have been such a distinctive feature of the Russian mortality crisis. In order to address this study question which focuses on exposures acting shortly before sudden death, a cohort would be unfeasibly large and would suffer from recruitment bias.MethodsAlthough the situation in Russia is unusual, with a very high death rate characterised by many sudden and apparently unexpected deaths in young men, the methodological problem is common to research on any cause of death where many deaths are sudden.ResultsWe describe the development of an innovative approach that has overcome some of these challenges: a case-control study employing proxy informants and external data sources to collect information about proximate determinants of mortality.ConclusionThis offers a set of principles that can be adopted by epidemiologists studying sudden and unexpected deaths in other settings.

Socio-demographic Predictors of Dimensions of the AUDIT Score in A Population Sample of Working-age Men in Izhevsk, Russia

Aims: To investigate the relationship between socio-demographic factors and alcohol drinking patterns identified through a formal analysis of the factor structure of the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) score in a population sample of working-age men in Russia. Methods: In 2008–2009, a sample of 1005 men aged 25–59 years living in Izhevsk, Russia were interviewed and information collected about socio-demographic circumstances. Responses to the AUDIT questions were obtained through a self-completed questionnaire. Latent dimensions of the AUDIT score were determined using confirmatory factor analysis and expressed as standard deviation (SD) units. Structural equation modelling was used to estimate the strength of association of these dimensions with socio-demographic variables. Results: The AUDIT was found to have a two-factor structure: alcohol consumption and alcohol-related problems. Both dimensions were higher in men who were unemployed seeking work compared with those in regular paid employment. For consumption, there was a difference of 0.59 SDs, (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.23, 0.88) and for alcohol-related problems one of 0.66 SD (95% CI: 0.31, 1.00). Alcohol-related problems were greater among less educated compared with more educated men (P-value for trend = 0.05), while consumption was not related to education. Similar results were found for associations with an amenity index based on car ownership and central heating. Neither dimension was associated with marital status. While we found evidence that the consumption component of AUDIT was underestimated, this did not appear to explain the associations of this dimension with socio-demographic factors. Conclusions: Education and amenity index, both measures of socio-economic position, were inversely associated with alcohol-related problems but not with consumption. This discordance suggests that self-reported questions on frequency and volume may be less sensitive markers of socio-economic variation in drinking than are questions about dependence and harm. Further investigation of the validity of the consumption component of AUDIT in Russia is warranted as it appears that the concept of a standard ‘drink’ as used in the instrument is not understood.

Alcohol-related dysfunction in working-age men in Izhevsk, Russia : an application of structural equation models to study the association with education

Background Acute alcohol-related dysfunctional behaviours, such as hangover, are predictive of poor health and mortality. Although much is known about the association of education with alcohol consumption, little is known about its association with these dysfunctional behaviours. Methods The study population was 1,705 male drinkers aged 25–54 years resident in the city of Izhevsk, Russia who participated in a cross-sectional survey (2003–6). Structural equation modelling was used to examine the relationships between education, beverage and non-beverage alcohol intake, drinking patterns, and acute alcohol-related dysfunction score among these drinkers. Results Dysfunction was related to all other drinking variables, with the strongest predictors being spirit intake, non-beverage alcohol consumption and drinking patterns. There was a strong relationship between education and acute dysfunction which was not explained by adjusting for alcohol intake and drinking patterns (mean adjusted dysfunction score 0.35 SD (95% CI 0.10, 0.61) lower in men with higher versus secondary education). Conclusions Although by definition one or more aspects of alcohol consumption should explain the educational differences in alcohol-related dysfunction, detailed information on drinking only partly accounted for the observed patterns. Thus beyond their intrinsic interest, these results illustrate the challenges in constructing statistical models that convincingly identify the pathways that link educational differences to health-related outcomes.

Comparative performance of biomarkers of alcohol consumption in a population sample of working-aged men in Russia: the Izhevsk Family Study.

Aims To assess the performance of a range of biomarkers of alcohol consumption in a heavy-drinking population of working-aged Russian men. Design Cross-sectional study of men originally sampled at random from a population register. Setting Izhevsk, a Russian city with a population of 650 000 people. Participants A total of 1023 men aged 27–59 years living in Izhevsk who took part in a health check examination in 2008–2009. Measurements Self-reported alcohol consumption, hazardous drinking behaviours, socio-economic position, anthropometric measurements plus blood levels of alcohol biomarkers [carbohydrate-deficient transferrin (CDT, gamma-glutamyl transferase (GGT), alanine aminotransferase (ALT), aspartate aminotransferase (AST) and mean cell volume of erythrocytes (MCV)] and hepatitis B and C status. Findings In the year before interview there was a high prevalence of high-risk alcohol consumption indicated by consumption of non-beverage alcohols (5%), problem drinking behaviours (4.4%) and alcohol consumption exceeding an average 40 g per day (12.6%). All biomarkers were associated strongly with total beverage alcohol consumption even after adjustment for confounders. CDT performed best as an alcohol biomarker, with a sensitivity of 67% and specificity of 71% for detecting an average consumption of more than 40 g per day versus less. For all biomarkers sensitivity was considerably lower than specificity. Hazardous drinking patterns per se were not well detected by any of the biomarkers, all with sensitivity below 60%. Conclusions In a Russian population with high levels of alcohol consumption, carbohydrate-deficient transferrin (CDT) might be the most sensitive and specific biomarker for detecting ethanol consumption above 40 g/day. A biomarker reflecting hazardous drinking patterns has yet to be established.

ALCOHOL-INDUCED DAMAGE TO HEART MUSCLE RATHER THAN ATHEROSCLEROSIS MAY DRIVE THE ASSOCIATION OF CIRCULATORY DISEASE WITH HAZARDOUS DRINKING IN RUSSIA

Background Circulatory disease mortality in Russia is associated with hazardous drinking. Over the past 40 years there have been major fluctuations in mortality from circulatory disease that are closely correlated with deaths from acute alcohol poisoning (r=0.8 among working-age men). In a case-control study (2003–2005) hazardous drinking was associated with deaths attributed to ischaemic heart disease. However, rather than hazardous alcohol consumption increasing risk of atherosclerotic disease and subsequent myocardial infarction, these effects could be due to misclassified non-atherosclerotic damage to the heart induced by heavy drinking as occurs in extreme form in alcoholic cardiomyopathy. Methods A population-based sample of 1052 men aged 30–60 years living in Izhevsk (a medium-sized Russian city) were examined (2008–2009). Information about drinking was obtained by interview of proxy informants (mainly spouses or partners). Levels of B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP—a sensitive and highly specific marker of heart muscle stress) and an atherogenic index (ApoB to ApoA1 ratio) were measured in blood. Results Compared to abstainers, men who drank hazardously had an increased risk of being in the top 20% of BNP (OR 4.80, 95% CI 2.29 to 10.1) adjusted for age and BMI, with non-hazardous drinkers being intermediate in risk. The equivalent association for the ApoB/ApoA1 ratio was in the opposite direction (OR 0.31, 0.16 to 0.61). Conclusion Hazardous drinkers show a lipoprotein profile associated with a reduced risk of atherosclerotic disease. However, they have raised levels of BNP. Taken together these results support the hypothesis that hazardous drinking among Russian men may induce non-atherosclerotic heart muscle damage.