Nikolay V. Baranovskiy

Focused sun's rays and forest fire danger: new concept

Estimation of forest fire danger has traditionally been based on historical fire weather climatology. This presentation describes a new concept for an improved estimation of forest fire danger, which takes into account the possibility of forest fuel ignition as a result of focused sun’s light. For example, glass containers, their splinters and large drops of coniferous trees pitch can be a fire hazard due to their potential for focusing the sun’s rays (under favorable conditions) and, consequently for setting forest fuel ablaze. Our analysis of numerous observational reports suggests that the forest fuel ignition process can be described by system of the non-stationary nonlinear equations of heat conductivity and diffusion with corresponding initial and boundary conditions. To solve these equations, we apply well-established numerical methods. This presentation includes model results and their comparison with available observational constrains together with suggestions for using remote sensing data.

ArcGIS for assessment and display of the probability of forest fire danger

This paper describes geoinformation system that includes toolset for analysis of forest areas taxation aimed at quantitative evaluation of forest fire danger. The system takes into consideration such factors as anthropogenic load, storm activity and influence focused sunlight. Conceptual basis of GIS system is physically and mathematically proved methodic of forest fire danger assessment. Computational formulae of probability of forest fire initiation are derived from basic statement of probability theory. The system is implemented in specialized software ArcGIS. The system uses standard user interface with additional functionality for assessment of probability of fire incidents in the forest quarters area due to action of caused sunlight. Received information is displayed on the map. For extra capabilities in evaluating forest fire danger unique instruments were developed in built-in Python programming language. The system is capable of evaluating probability and classification of fire danger and can be used for early detection and prediction of disasters of natural and technogenic origin.

Geoinformation system for prediction of forest fire danger caused by solar radiation using remote sensing data

This article reviews the project of subsystem that reflects the Earth remote sensing data from the space in order to monitor the forest fire danger, caused by the focused solar radiation effect. This subsystem is based on the use of sensing data from the MODIS instrument aboard the Terra satellite. We consider the Timiryazevsky Forestry of Tomsk region to be a typical territory of the boreal forest zone. To estimate the forest fire danger level, we use an original method to classify the forest areas according to their characteristics (the ground mensuration data) and the main meteorological parameters, namely, the cloud cover on this territory, obtained from the MODIS satellite data.

A Web-Oriented Geoinformation System Application for Forest Fire Danger Prediction in Typical Forests of the Ukraine

A web-oriented geoinformation system for forest fire danger prediction based on a probabilistic fire danger criteria is described in this chapter. A new method for determining the probabilistic fire danger criteria is described. A new formula for fire danger assessment for the j-th time interval of forest fire season is obtained using the basic principles of probability theory. A definition of probability using frequency of events is used to calculate fire danger. Statistical data for certain forests is used to determine all the multipliers in the formula for fire danger. The system is developed in the Django platform in the programming language Python. The system architecture, based on Django’s Model-View-Template, is described. The software package that runs on the server allows a set of parameters describing forest fire danger to be obtained and used for visualisation. A part of forest fire risk map which correspond to certain value of fire danger is depicted. Estimation of fire risk helps to identify the areas most prone to fire ignition, so as to efficiently allocate forest fire fighting resources.

Methods to estimate lightning activity using WWLLN and RS data

The aim of the work is to develop a comprehensive method for assessing thunderstorm activity using WWLLN and RS data. It is necessary to group lightning discharges to solve practical problems of lightning protection and lightningcaused forest fire danger, as well as climatology problems using information on the spatial and temporal characteristics of thunderstorms. For grouping lightning discharges, it is proposed to use clustering algorithms. The region covering Timiryazevskiy forestry (Tomsk region, borders (55.93 - 56.86)x(83.94 - 85.07)) was selected for the computational experiment. We used the data on lightning discharges registered by the WWLLN network in this region on July 23, 2014. 273 lightning discharges were sampling. A relatively small number of discharges allowed us a visual analysis of solutions obtained during clustering.

Web-GIS platform for forest fire danger prediction in Ukraine: prospects of RS technologies

There are many different statistical and empirical methods of forest fire danger use at present time. All systems have not physical basis. Last decade deterministic-probabilistic method is rapidly developed in Tomsk Polytechnic University. Forest sites classification is one way to estimate forest fire danger. We used this method in present work. Forest fire danger estimation depends on forest vegetation condition, forest fire retrospective, precipitation and air temperature. In fact, we use modified Nesterov Criterion. Lightning activity is under consideration as a high temperature source in present work. We use Web-GIS platform for program realization of this method. The program realization of the fire danger assessment system is the Web-oriented geoinformation system developed by the Django platform in the programming language Python. The GeoDjango framework was used for realization of cartographic functions. We suggest using of Terra/Aqua MODIS products for hot spot monitoring. Typical territory for forest fire danger estimation is Proletarskoe forestry of Kherson region (Ukraine).

Joint processing of RS and WWLLN data for forest fire danger estimation: new concept

The present article describes a new concept of lightning-caused forest fire danger using a probabilistic criterion. The assessment of forest fire danger is made on the basis of the algorithm that classifies the forest territory by vegetation conditions. Lightning activity is processed by the MODIS spectroradiometer according to the World Wide Lightning Location Network data and remote sensing data for the Timiryazevskiy forestry in the Tomsk Region. The cluster analysis of the WWLLN and MOD06_L2 product data are used in the present paper.

Focused sunlight factor of forest fire danger assessment using Web-GIS and RS technologies

Timiryazevskiy forestry of Tomsk region (Siberia, Russia) is a study area elaborated in current research. Forest fire danger assessment is based on unique technology using probabilistic criterion, statistical data on forest fires, meteorological conditions, forest sites classification and remote sensing data. MODIS products are used for estimating some meteorological conditions and current forest fire situation. Geonformation technologies are used for geospatial analysis of forest fire danger situation on controlled forested territories. GIS-engine provides opportunities to construct electronic maps with different levels of forest fire probability and support raster layer for satellite remote sensing data on current forest fires. Web-interface is used for data loading on specific web-site and for forest fire danger data representation via World Wide Web. Special web-forms provide interface for choosing of relevant input data in order to process the forest fire danger data and assess the forest fire probability.

Mathematical Modeling of Thermal Influence from Forest Fire Front on a Coniferous Tree Trunk

Numerical research results of heat transfer in layered tree trunk influenced by heat flux from forest fire presented. The problem solved in two-dimensional statement in Cartesian system of co-ordinates. The typical range of influence parameters of heat flux from forest fire considered. Temperature distributions in different moments of time obtained. Condition of tree damage by forest fire influence is under consideration in this research.

Information-algorithmic basis of a program complex for forest fire danger estimation

Present work is devoted to the description of information and algorithmic support for creation of a program complex for an assessment of forest fire danger. The assessment of forest fire danger is made on the basis of algorithm for classification of the forest territory by vegetation conditions and the modified Nesterovs index. Meteorological data (air temperature and cloudiness) and also the data on thermal anomalies received from satellite measurements by MODIS spectroradiometer for the territory of the Timiryazevskiy forestry of the Tomsk region are used as information on the Environment state.