Niku Kivekäs

Global observations of aerosol‐cloud‐precipitation‐climate interactions

Cloud drop condensation nuclei (CCN) and ice nuclei (IN) particles determine to a large extent cloud microstructure and, consequently, cloud albedo and the dynamic response of clouds to aerosol-induced changes to precipitation. This can modify the reflected solar radiation and the thermal radiation emitted to space. Measurements of tropospheric CCN and IN over large areas have not been possible and can be only roughly approximated from satellite-sensor-based estimates of optical properties of aerosols. Our lack of ability to measure both CCN and cloud updrafts precludes disentangling the effects of meteorology from those of aerosols and represents the largest component in our uncertainty in anthropogenic climate forcing. Ways to improve the retrieval accuracy include multiangle and multipolarimetric passive measurements of the optical signal and multispectral lidar polarimetric measurements. Indirect methods include proxies of trace gases, as retrieved by hyperspectral sensors. Perhaps the most promising emerging direction is retrieving the CCN properties by simultaneously retrieving convective cloud drop number concentrations and updraft speeds, which amounts to using clouds as natural CCN chambers. These satellite observations have to be constrained by in situ observations of aerosol-cloud-precipitation-climate (ACPC) interactions, which in turn constrain a hierarchy of model simulations of ACPC. Since the essence of a general circulation model is an accurate quantification of the energy and mass fluxes in all forms between the surface, atmosphere and outer space, a route to progress is proposed here in the form of a series of box flux closure experiments in the various climate regimes. A roadmap is provided for quantifying the ACPC interactions and thereby reducing the uncertainty in anthropogenic climate forcing.

Commercial Arctic shipping through the Northeast Passage: routes, resources, governance, technology, and infrastructure

The Russian and Norwegian Arctic are gaining notoriety as an alternative maritime route connecting the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans and as sources of natural resources. The renewed interest in the Northeast Passage or the Northern Sea Route is fueled by a recession of Arctic sea ice coupled with the discovery of new natural resources at a time when emerging and global markets are in growing demand for them. Driven by the expectation of potential future economic importance of the region, political interest and governance has been rapidly developing, mostly within the Arctic Council. However, this paper argues that optimism regarding the potential of Arctic routes as an alternative to the Suez Canal is overstated. The route involves many challenges: jurisdictional disputes create political uncertainties; shallow waters limit ship size; lack of modern deepwater ports and search and rescue (SAR) capabilities requires ships to have higher standards of autonomy and safety; harsh weather conditions and free-floating ice make navigation more difficult and schedules more variable; and more expensive ship construction and operation costs lessen the economic viability of the route. Technological advances and infrastructure investments may ameliorate navigational challenges, enabling increased shipping of natural resources from the Arctic to global markets.

Atmospheric new particle formation at Uto, Baltic Sea 2003-2005

Nearly 3 yr (March 2003–December 2005) of continuous particle number size distribution measurements have been conducted at the island of Utö in the Baltic Sea. The measured particle size range was from 7 to 530 nm. During the measurement period, a total of 103 regional new-particle formation events were observed. The characteristics of the nucleation events at Utö were similar to those reported in the literature in other Nordic sites, though measured condensation sinks were rather high (geometric mean of 3.8 × 10-3 s-1) during event days. Clear evidence was found that new particles nucleate regionally near Utö, rather than are transported from greater distances. However, the Baltic Sea seems to have an inhibiting effect on new-particle formation. The boreal forest areas in the continental Finland were found to have an enhancing effect on the nucleation probability in Utö, suggesting that at least some of the precursor gases for nucleation and/or condensational growth of particles originate from these forests. In addition to regional new-particle formation events, a total of 94 local events were observed in Utö. These are short-lived events with a small footprint area, and can at least partly be tracked down to the emissions of ship traffic operating at Utö.

Coupling an aerosol box model with one-dimensional flow: a tool for understanding observations of new particle formation events

Field observations of new particle formation and the subsequent particle growth are typically only possible at a fixed measurement location, and hence do not follow the temporal evolution of an air parcel in a Lagrangian sense. Standard analysis for determining formation and growth rates requires that the time-dependent formation rate and growth rate of the particles are spatially invariant; air parcel advection means that the observed temporal evolution of the particle size distribution at a fixed measurement location may not represent the true evolution if there are spatial variations in the formation and growth rates. Here we present a zero-dimensional aerosol box model coupled with one-dimensional atmospheric flow to describe the impact of advection on the evolution of simulated new particle formation events. Wind speed, particle formation rates and growth rates are input parameters that can vary as a function of time and location, using wind speed to connect location to time. The output simulates measurements at a fixed location; formation and growth rates of the particle mode can then be calculated from the simulated observations at a stationary point for different scenarios and be compared with the ‘true’ input parameters. Hence, we can investigate how spatial variations in the formation and growth rates of new particles would appear in observations of particle number size distributions at a fixed measurement site. We show that the particle size distribution and growth rate at a fixed location is dependent on the formation and growth parameters upwind, even if local conditions do not vary. We also show that different input parameters used may result in very similar simulated measurements. Erroneous interpretation of observations in terms of particle formation and growth rates, and the time span and areal extent of new particle formation, is possible if the spatial effects are not accounted for.

Using Aerosol Number to Volu me Ratio in Predicting Cloud Droplet Number Concentration

In this work we present a parameterization for estimating cloud droplet number concentration from the submicron particle volume concentration, soluble fraction, updraft velocity, and a size distribution shape parameter R(0.1 µm). The parameterization will also be tested against measured values.

Analysis of particle size distribution changes between three measurement sites in Northern Scandinavia

Measured aerosol size distributions from three measurement stations and modeled air mass trajectory data were combined to study aerosol dynamics in the boreal forest zone in Northern Scandinavia. Three approaches were used: investigation of new particle formation events, analysis of air masses arriving from ocean to continent, and study of changes in the aerosol size distributions when air masses travel from one measurement site to another. The statistical analysis of air masses travelling either from the Atlantic Ocean to measurement sites or from one site to another showed that on average the condensational growth was present during the summer season, and it was not restricted only to the days when evident new particle formation was observed. The rate of this average apparent growth of particle diameter was 3-7 times smaller than the growth rate of nucleation mode particles during the new particle formation events.