Nils Christian Stenseth

The genome sequence of Atlantic cod reveals a unique immune system

Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) is a large, cold-adapted teleost that sustains long-standing commercial fisheries and incipient aquaculture. Here we present the genome sequence of Atlantic cod, showing evidence for complex thermal adaptations in its haemoglobin gene cluster and an unusual immune architecture compared to other sequenced vertebrates. The genome assembly was obtained exclusively by 454 sequencing of shotgun and paired-end libraries, and automated annotation identified 22,154 genes. The major histocompatibility complex (MHC) II is a conserved feature of the adaptive immune system of jawed vertebrates, but we show that Atlantic cod has lost the genes for MHC II, CD4 and invariant chain (Ii) that are essential for the function of this pathway. Nevertheless, Atlantic cod is not exceptionally susceptible to disease under natural conditions. We find a highly expanded number of MHC I genes and a unique composition of its Toll-like receptor (TLR) families. This indicates how the Atlantic cod immune system has evolved compensatory mechanisms in both adaptive and innate immunity in the absence of MHC II. These observations affect fundamental assumptions about the evolution of the adaptive immune system and its components in vertebrates.

Ecosystem oceanography for global change in fisheries

Overexploitation and climate change are increasingly causing unanticipated changes in marine ecosystems, such as higher variability in fish recruitment and shifts in species dominance. An ecosystem-based approach to fisheries attempts to address these effects by integrating populations, food webs and fish habitats at different scales. Ecosystem models represent indispensable tools to achieve this objective. However, a balanced research strategy is needed to avoid overly complex models. Ecosystem oceanography represents such a balanced strategy that relates ecosystem components and their interactions to climate change and exploitation. It aims at developing realistic and robust models at different levels of organisation and addressing specific questions in a global change context while systematically exploring the ever-increasing amount of biological and environmental data.

Evolution of Optimal Group Attack, with Particular Reference to Bark Beetles (Coleoptera: Scolytidae)

A general model for the benefits and costs of group attack by small predators that kill large prey was developed, and provided support for the hypothesis that bark beetles infesting pine trees have evolved group attack behavior that maximizes individual fitness. The model also provides a basis for evaluating the conditions under which social hunting behavior is likely to evolve, and provides insights on the population dynamics of animals that hunt in groups. See full-text article at JSTOR

Dynamics of coastal cod populations: intra- and intercohort density dependence and stochastic processes

Skagerrak populations of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua L.) have been surveyed at several fixed stations since 1919. These coastal populations consist of local stocks with a low age of maturity and a short life span. We investigated 60 time–series of 0–group juveniles (i.e. young of the year) sampled annually from 1945 to 1994. An age–structured model was developed which incorporates asymmetrical interactions between the juvenile cohorts (0–group and 1–group; i.e. one–year–old juveniles) and stochastic reproduction. The model was expressed in delay coordinates in order to estimate model parameters directly from the time–series and thereby test the model predictions. The autocovariance structure of the time–series was consistent with the delay coordinates model superimposed upon a long–term trend. The model illustrates how both regulatory (density–dependent) and disruptive (stochastic) forces are crucial in shaping the dynamics of the coastal cod populations. The age–structured life cycle acts to resonance the stochasticity inherent in the recruitment process.

Convergent temporal dynamics of the human infant gut microbiota

Temporal dynamics of the human gut microbiota is of fundamental importance for the development of proper gut function and maturation of the immune system. Here we present a description of infant gut ecological dynamics using a combination of nonlinear data modeling and simulations of the early infant gut colonization processes. Principal component analysis of infant microbiota 16S rRNA gene microarray data showed that the main directions of variation were defined by three phylum-specific probes targeting Bacteroides, Proteobacteria and Firmicutes. Nonlinear regression analysis identified several dynamic interactions between these three phyla. Simulations of the early phylum-level colonization process showed the relatively rapid establishment of an equilibrium community after an unstable initial phase. In general, varying the initial composition of phyla in the simulations had little bearing on the final equilibrium. The dynamic interaction model was found to maintain its predictive ability for Proteobacteria and Firmicutes well into the simulation, whereas Bacteroides densities tended to be underestimated, possibly due to host top-down selection for Bacteroides. In accordance with our model, initial perturbation of the microbiota by different mode of delivery (vaginal and C-section) did not affect the later phylum composition in the infants investigated. Considering the predictive ability and convergence of our phylum-level model, we now propose that deterministic bacterial–bacterial interactions are more important for shaping the human infant gut microbiota than previously anticipated.

Spawning stock and recruitment in North Sea cod shaped by food and climate

In order to provide better fisheries management and conservation decisions, there is a need to discern the underlying relationship between the spawning stock and recruitment of marine fishes, a relationship which is influenced by the environmental conditions. Here, we demonstrate how the environmental conditions (temperature and the food availability for fish larvae) influence the stock–recruitment relationship and indeed what kind of stock–recruitment relationship we might see under different environmental conditions. Using unique zooplankton data from the Continuous Plankton Recorder, we find that food availability (i.e. zooplankton) in essence determines which model applies for the once large North Sea cod (Gadus morhua) stock. Further, we show that recruitment is strengthened during cold years and weakened during warm years. Our combined model explained 45 per cent of the total variance in cod recruitment, while the traditional Ricker and Beverton–Holt models only explained about 10 per cent. Specifically, our approach predicts that a full recovery of the North Sea cod stock might not be expected until the environment becomes more favourable.

Modelling non–additive and nonlinear signals from climatic noise in ecological time series: Soay sheep as an example

Understanding how climate can interact with other factors in determining patterns of species abundance is a persistent challenge in ecology. Recent research has suggested that the dynamics exhibited by some populations may be a non–additive function of climate, with climate affecting population growth more strongly at high density than at low density. However, we lack methodologies to adequately explain patterns in population growth generated as a result of interactions between intrinsic factors and extrinsic climatic variation in non–linear systems. We present a novel method (the Functional Coefficient Threshold Auto–Regressive (FCTAR) method) that can identify interacting influences of climate and density on population dynamics from time–series data. We demonstrate its use on count data on the size of the Soay sheep population, which is known to exhibit dynamics generated by nonlinear and non–additive interactions between density and climate, living on Hirta in the St Kilda archipelago. The FCTAR method suggests that climate fluctuations can drive the Soay sheep population between different dynamical regimes—from stable population size through limit cycles and non–periodic fluctuations.

Small-scale genetic structure in a marine population in relation to water circulation and egg characteristics

Until the last decade it was assumed that most marine species have pronounced gene flow over vast areas, largely because of their potential for dispersal during early life stages. However, recent genetic, modeling, and field studies have shown that marine populations may be structured at scales that are inconsistent with extensive dispersal of eggs and larvae. Such findings have stimulated the birth of new studies explaining the mechanisms that promote population structure and isolation in the oceans, in the face of high potential for dispersal. Here we study the vertical and horizontal distribution of cod (Gadus morhua) eggs in relation to small-scale circulation and water column hydrography in a coastal location of southern Norway. Previous studies conducted in this region have shown that cod populations inhabiting fjord locations, which are on average 30 km apart, are genetically differentiated, a remarkable outcome considering that Atlantic cod have pelagic egg stages and long pelagic larval duration. We document that cod eggs are found in greater abundance in shallow water layers, which on average are flowing up the fjord (away from the open ocean), and in the inner portion of the fjord, which is subject to lower current speeds compared to the outer or mouth of the fjord. Eggs were found to be neutrally buoyant at shallow depths, a trait that also favors local retention, given the local circulation. The same patterns held during two environmentally contrasting years. These results strongly suggest that population structure of Atlantic cod is favored and maintained by a balance between water circulation and egg characteristics.

Predator transitory spillover induces trophic cascades in ecological sinks

Understanding the effects of cross-system fluxes is fundamental in ecosystem ecology and biological conservation. Source-sink dynamics and spillover processes may link adjacent ecosystems by movement of organisms across system boundaries. However, effects of temporal variability in these cross-system fluxes on a whole marine ecosystem structure have not yet been presented. Here we show, using 35 y of multitrophic data series from the Baltic Sea, that transitory spillover of the top-predator cod from its main distribution area produces cascading effects in the whole food web of an adjacent and semi-isolated ecosystem. At varying population size, cod expand/contract their distribution range and invade/retreat from the neighboring Gulf of Riga, thereby affecting the local prey population of herring and, indirectly, zooplankton and phytoplankton via top-down control. The Gulf of Riga can be considered for cod a “true sink” habitat, where in the absence of immigration from the source areas of the central Baltic Sea the cod population goes extinct due to the absence of suitable spawning grounds. Our results add a metaecosystem perspective to the ongoing intense scientific debate on the key role of top predators in structuring natural systems. The integration of regional and local processes is central to predict species and ecosystem responses to future climate changes and ongoing anthropogenic disturbances.

Phase- and density-dependent population dynamics in Norwegian lemmings: interaction between deterministic and stochastic processes

We analysed two 26–year long (1970 to 1995) time–series on annual population growth rates of Norwegian lemmings (Lemmus lemmus) from Finse, south Norway, using a threshold autoregressive (TAR) approach. We demonstrate that the population dynamics is both phase– and density–dependent. The phase–dependence accounts for the observed nonlinearity. We used the deduced stochastic model structure as a basis for evaluating the dynamic properties of this system. The dynamics is characterized either by limit cycles or chaos (the latter with a strong semi–periodic component). Stochasticity is seen to play an important role in the determination of the periodicity. The ecological implications of these statistical and mathematical results are discussed.