Nisha Bansal

Incident Atrial Fibrillation and Risk of End-Stage Renal Disease in Adults With Chronic Kidney Disease

Background— Atrial fibrillation (AF) frequently occurs in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). However, the long-term impact of development of AF on the risk of adverse renal outcomes in patients with CKD is unknown. In this study, we determined the association between incident AF and risk of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) among adults with CKD. Methods and Results— We studied adults with CKD (defined as estimated glomerular filtration rate eGFR <60 mL/min per 1.73 m2 by the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration equation) enrolled in Kaiser Permanente Northern California who were identified between 2002 and 2010 and who did not have previous ESRD or previously documented AF. Incident AF was identified by using primary hospital discharge diagnoses or 2 or more outpatient visits for AF. Incident ESRD was ascertained from a comprehensive health plan registry for dialysis and renal transplant. Among 206 229 adults with CKD, 16 463 developed incident AF. During a mean follow-up of 5.1±2.5 years, there were 345 cases of ESRD that occurred after development of incident AF (74 per 1000 person-years) in comparison with 6505 cases of ESRD during periods without AF (64 per 1000 person-years, P<0.001). After adjustment for potential confounders, incident AF was associated with a 67% increase in the rate of ESRD (hazard ratio, 1.67; 95% confidence interval, 1.46–1.91). Conclusions— Incident AF is independently associated with increased risk of developing ESRD in adults with CKD. Further study is needed to identify potentially modifiable pathways through which AF leads to a higher risk of progression to ESRD.

Blood Pressure and Risk of All-Cause Mortality in Advanced Chronic Kidney Disease and Hemodialysis The Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort Study

Studies of hemodialysis patients have shown a U-shaped association between systolic blood pressure (SBP) and mortality. These studies have largely relied on dialysis-unit SBP measures and have not evaluated whether this U-shape also exists in advanced chronic kidney disease, before starting hemodialysis. We determined the association between SBP and mortality at advanced chronic kidney disease and again after initiation of hemodialysis. This was a prospective study of Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort participants with advanced chronic kidney disease followed through initiation of hemodialysis. We studied the association between SBP and mortality when participants (1) had an estimated glomerular filtration rate <30 mL/min/1.73 m2 (n=1705), (2) initiated hemodialysis and had dialysis-unit SBP measures (n=403), and (3) initiated hemodialysis and had out-of-dialysis-unit SBP measured at a Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort study visit (n=326). Cox models were adjusted for demographics, cardiovascular risk factors, and dialysis parameters. A quadratic term for SBP was included to test for a U-shaped association. At advanced chronic kidney disease, there was no association between SBP and mortality (hazard ratio, 1.02 [95% confidence interval, 0.98–1.07] per every 10 mm Hg increase). Among participants who started hemodialysis, a U-shaped association between dialysis-unit SBP and mortality was observed. In contrast, there was a linear association between out-of-dialysis-unit SBP and mortality (hazard ratio, 1.26 [95% confidence interval, 1.14–1.40] per every 10 mm Hg increase). In conclusion, more efforts should be made to obtain out-of-dialysis-unit SBP, which may merit more consideration as a target for clinical management and in interventional trials.

A Longitudinal Study of Left Ventricular Function and Structure from CKD to ESRD: The CRIC Study

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES Abnormal left ventricular structure and function are associated with increased risk of adverse outcomes among patients with CKD and ESRD. A better understanding of changes in left ventricular mass and ejection fraction during the transition from CKD to ESRD may provide important insights to opportunities to improve cardiac outcomes. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS This was a longitudinal study of a subset of participants of the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort who were enrolled from 2003 to 2007 and followed through January of 2011. Participants were included if they had serial echocardiograms performed at advanced CKD (defined as estimated GFR<20 ml/min per 1.73 m(2)) and again after ESRD (defined as need for hemodialysis or peritoneal dialysis). RESULTS A total of 190 participants (44% female, 66% black) had echocardiograms during advanced CKD and after ESRD. Mean (SD) estimated GFR at advanced CKD was 16.9 (3.5) ml/min per 1.73 m(2). Mean (SD) time between the advanced CKD echocardiogram and ESRD echocardiogram was 2.0 (1.0) years. There was no significant change in left ventricular mass index (62.3-59.5 g/m(2.7), P=0.10) between advanced CKD and ESRD; however, ejection fraction significantly decreased (53%-50%, P=0.002). Interactions for age, race, dialysis modality, and diabetes status were not significant (P>0.05). CONCLUSIONS Mean left ventricular mass index did not change significantly from advanced CKD to ESRD; however, ejection fraction declined during this transition period. Although left ventricular mass index is fixed by advanced stages of CKD, ejection fraction decline during more advanced stages of CKD may be an important contributor to cardiovascular disease and mortality after dialysis.

High-Sensitivity Troponin T and N-Terminal Pro-B-Type Natriuretic Peptide (NT-proBNP) and Risk of Incident Heart Failure in Patients with CKD: The Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) Study

High-sensitivity troponin T (hsTnT) and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) strongly predict heart failure (HF) in the general population. However, the interpretation of levels of these biomarkers as predictors of HF is uncertain among patients with CKD. Here, we investigated whether hsTnT and NT-proBNP are associated with incident HF among patients with CKD. In a prospective cohort analysis, we studied 3483 people with CKD in the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) Study recruited from June of 2003 to August of 2008 who were free of HF at baseline. We used Cox regression to examine the association of baseline levels of hsTnT and NT-proBNP with incident HF after adjustment for demographic factors, traditional cardiovascular risk factors, markers of kidney disease, pertinent medication use, and mineral metabolism markers. At baseline, hsTnT levels ranged from ≤5.0 to 738.7 pg/ml, and NT-proBNP levels ranged from ≤5 to 35,000 pg/ml. Compared with those who had undetectable hsTnT, participants in the highest quartile (>26.5 pg/ml) had a significantly higher rate of HF (hazard ratio, 4.77; 95% confidence interval, 2.49 to 9.14). Similarly, compared with those in the lowest NT-proBNP quintile (<47.6 pg/ml), participants in the highest quintile (>433.0 pg/ml) experienced a substantially higher rate of HF (hazard ratio, 9.57; 95% confidence interval, 4.40 to 20.83) [corrected]. In conclusion, hsTnT and NT-proBNP were strongly associated with incident HF among a diverse cohort of individuals with mild to severe CKD. Elevations in these biomarkers may indicate subclinical changes in volume and myocardial stress that subsequently contribute to clinical HF.

Trajectories of Kidney Function Decline in Young Black and White Adults With Preserved GFR: Results From the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) Study

BACKGROUND Strong racial discrepancies in end-stage renal disease exist. Whether there are race differences in kidney function loss in younger healthy persons is not well established. STUDY DESIGN Longitudinal. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS 3,348 black and white adults with at least 2 measurements of cystatin C-based estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFRcys) at scheduled Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) examinations (years 10, 15, and 20). PREDICTOR Race. OUTCOMES & MEASUREMENTS We used linear mixed models to examine race differences in annualized rates of eGFRcys decline, adjusting for age, sex, lifetime exposure to systolic blood pressure >120 mm Hg, diabetes, and albumin-creatinine ratio. We used Poisson regression to compare racial differences in rapid decline (eGFRcys decline >3% per year) by study period (10-15 years after baseline examination [defining period 1] and >15-20 years after baseline examination [defining period 2]). RESULTS Mean age was 35 ± 3.6 (SD) years, and mean eGFRcys was 110 ± 20 mL/min/1.73 m² for blacks and 104 ± 17 mL/min/1.73 m² for whites at baseline. For both blacks and whites, eGFRcys decline was minimal at younger ages (<35 years) and eGFRcys loss accelerated at older ages. However, acceleration of eGFRcys decline occurred at earlier ages for blacks than whites. Blacks had somewhat faster annualized rates of decline compared with whites, but differences were attenuated after adjustment in period 1 (0.13 mL/min/1.73 m² per year faster; P = 0.2). In contrast, during period 2, blacks had significantly faster annualized rates of decline, even after adjustment (0.32 mL/min/1.73 m² per year faster; P = 0.003). The prevalence of rapid decline was significantly higher for blacks versus whites, with prevalence rate ratios of 1.31 (95% CI, 1.04-1.63) for period 1 and 1.24 (95% CI, 1.09-1.41) for period 2. Differences were attenuated after full adjustment: adjusted prevalence rate ratios were 1.20 (95% CI, 0.95-1.49) for period 1 and 1.10 (95% CI, 0.96-1.26) for period 2. LIMITATIONS No measured GFR. CONCLUSIONS eGFRcys decline differs by race at early ages, with faster annualized rates of decline for blacks. Future studies are required to explain the observed differences.

Predictors of Recurrent AKI

Recurrent AKI is common among patients after hospitalized AKI and is associated with progressive CKD. In this study, we identified clinical risk factors for recurrent AKI present during index AKI hospitalizations that occurred between 2003 and 2010 using a regional Veterans Administration database in the United States. AKI was defined as a 0.3 mg/dl or 50% increase from a baseline creatinine measure. The primary outcome was hospitalization with recurrent AKI within 12 months of discharge from the index hospitalization. Time to recurrent AKI was examined using Cox regression analysis, and sensitivity analyses were performed using a competing risk approach. Among 11,683 qualifying AKI hospitalizations, 2954 patients (25%) were hospitalized with recurrent AKI within 12 months of discharge. Median time to recurrent AKI within 12 months was 64 (interquartile range 19-167) days. In addition to known demographic and comorbid risk factors for AKI, patients with longer AKI duration and those whose discharge diagnosis at index AKI hospitalization included congestive heart failure (primary diagnosis), decompensated advanced liver disease, cancer with or without chemotherapy, acute coronary syndrome, or volume depletion, were at highest risk for being hospitalized with recurrent AKI. Risk factors identified were similar when a competing risk model for death was applied. In conclusion, several inpatient conditions associated with AKI may increase the risk for recurrent AKI. These findings should facilitate risk stratification, guide appropriate patient referral after AKI, and help generate potential risk reduction strategies. Efforts to identify modifiable factors to prevent recurrent AKI in these patients are warranted.

Measured GFR as “Gold Standard”—All that Glitters Is Not Gold?

Glomerular filtration rate (GFR) is the parameter that has been used most commonly as the “overall index” of renal function. Historically, inulin has been considered the ideal filtration marker used to determine GFR. The classic procedure for measuring inulin clearance is rigorous and includes a

Development and Validation of a Model to Predict 5-Year Risk of Death without ESRD among Older Adults with CKD

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES CKD is associated with mortality. Accurate prediction tools for mortality may guide clinical decision-making, particularly among elderly persons with CKD. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS A prediction equation was developed for 5-year risk of mortality among participants with CKD in the Cardiovascular Health Study. Sixteen candidate predictor variables were explored, which included demographics, physical examination measures, comorbidity, medication use, and kidney function measures (eGFR calculated from serum creatinine and the CKD Epidemiology Collaboration equation and the urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio). Models were developed using Cox regression and evaluated using c statistics. A final parsimonious model was externally validated in an independent cohort of community-living elders with CKD in the Health, Aging, and Body Composition Study. RESULTS The development cohort included 828 participants who had a mean age of 80 (±5.6) years and an eGFR of 47 (±11) ml/min per 1.73 m(2), and median albumin-to-creatinine ratio of 13 (interquartile range 6-51) mg/g. The validation cohort included 789 participants who had a mean age of 74 (±2.8) years and an eGFR of 50 (±9) ml/min per 1.73 m(2), and median albumin-to-creatinine ratio of 13 (interquartile range 6-42) mg/g. The final model for 5-year mortality risk included age, sex, race, eGFR, urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio, smoking, diabetes mellitus, and history of heart failure and stroke (c statistic=0.72; 95% confidence interval, 0.68 to 0.74). When a point-based system was assigned for each of nine variables in the equation, the estimated risk of death within 5 years ranged from 3.8% among participants with the lowest scores to 83.6% among participants with nine points. The model performed fair in external validation (c statistic=0.69; 95% confidence interval, 0.64 to 0.74). CONCLUSIONS A simple prediction tool using nine readily available clinical variables can assist in predicting 5-year mortality risk in elderly patients with CKD, which may be useful in counseling patients and guiding clinical decision making.

Arterial Stiffness, Central Pressures, and Incident Hospitalized Heart Failure in the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort Study

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is independently associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease1;2. Patients with CKD are also at an increased risk of heart failure (HF), which is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in this population 3-6. Whereas several studies have been performed regarding predictors of overall cardiovascular risk in CKD (assessed using composite cardiovascular endpoints), the predictors of HF as a specific endpoint have not been adequately characterized in subjects with CKD. Of note, composite cardiovascular endpoints usually include several atherosclerotic and non-atherosclerotic events, for which risk factors may differ. HF in CKD has been proposed to be largely independent of atherosclerotic occlusive disease and more closely related to structural myocardial disease 3. Elevated blood pressure is a well-known risk factor for HF in the general population and a candidate mechanism for increased HF risk in CKD 7. However, a recent study reported that moderate CKD increases the risk of HF even in the absence of hypertension (defined from brachial pressure measurements) or diabetes mellitus at baseline 4. Central pressure profiles have been investigated in the prediction of cardiovascular risk in patients with end-stage kidney disease 8, but the relationship between central pressures and incident HF has never been examined in earlier stages of CKD. Similarly, increased large artery stiffness has been proposed as a major contributor to HF risk in CKD 3 due to its well-known effects on left ventricular pulsatile afterload 9, which promote left ventricular hypertrophy and myocardial dysfunction. Despite these important physiologic considerations, the relationship between large artery stiffness, central pressures and incident HF in CKD has not been investigated. In this study, we aimed to evaluate the role of large artery stiffness, brachial and central blood pressure as predictors of incident hospitalized HF in the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC), a multi-ethnic multi-center prospective observational study of patients with CKD10.Background—Chronic kidney disease is associated with an increased risk of heart failure (HF). We aimed to evaluate the role of large artery stiffness, brachial, and central blood pressure as predictors of incident hospitalized HF in the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC), a multiethnic, multicenter prospective observational study of patients with chronic kidney disease. Methods and Results—We studied 2602 participants who were free of HF at baseline. Carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity (CF-PWV; the gold standard index of large artery stiffness), brachial, and central pressures (estimated via radial tonometry and a generalized transfer function) were assessed at baseline. Participants were prospectively followed up to assess the development of new-onset hospitalized HF. During 3.5 years of follow-up, 154 participants had a first hospital admission for HF. CF-PWV was a significant independent predictor of incident hospitalized HF. When compared with the lowest tertile, the hazard ratios among subjects in the middle and top CF-PWV tertiles were 2.33 (95% confidence interval, 1.37–3.97; P=0.002) and 5.24 (95% confidence interval, 3.22–8.53; P<0.0001), respectively. After adjustment for multiple confounders, the hazard ratios for the middle and top CF-PWV tertiles were 1.95 (95% confidence interval, 0.92–4.13; P=0.079) and 3.01 (95% confidence interval, 1.45–6.26; P=0.003), respectively. Brachial systolic and pulse pressure were also independently associated with incident hospitalized HF, whereas central pressures were less consistently associated with this end point. The association between CF-PWV and incident HF persisted after adjustment for systolic blood pressure. Conclusions—Large artery stiffness is an independent predictor of incident HF in chronic kidney disease, an association with strong biological plausibility given the known effects of large artery stiffening of left ventricular pulsatile load.

Serum Parathyroid Hormone and 25‐Hydroxyvitamin D Concentrations and Risk of Incident Heart Failure: The Multi‐Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

Background Heart failure (HF) is common and is associated with high mortality. We aimed to determine associations of serum parathyroid hormone (PTH) and 25‐hydroxyvitamin D (25[OH]D) with incident HF and left ventricular mass. Methods and Results Among 6459 participants in the community‐based Multi‐Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis, all of whom were free of prevalent clinical cardiovascular disease, we measured serum concentrations of PTH and 25(OH)D at the baseline examination. In longitudinal analyses, we tested associations of PTH and 25(OH)D with incident HF events, adjudicated by a panel of physicians. In cross‐sectional analyses of a subset of 4763 participants, we tested associations of PTH and 25(OH)D with left ventricular mass, measured by cardiac magnetic resonance imaging at baseline. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard and linear regression models were adjusted for demographics, physical examination measures, comorbidity, kidney function, and other mineral metabolism markers. Mean age was 62 years and 53% of participants were female. There were 180 incident HF events over a median (interquartile range) follow‐up time of 8.46 (7.67 to 8.63) years. Compared with participants with PTH <65 pg/mL, PTH ≥65 pg/mL was associated with a 50% greater risk of incident HF (95% CI: 3% to 210%) and a 5.3 g higher left ventricular mass (95% CI: 2.6, 7.9 g). In contrast, there was no association of 25(OH)D with risk of incident HF or elevated left ventricular mass. Conclusions In a racially/ethnically diverse population without prevalent cardiovascular disease, higher serum PTH concentration was associated with increased left ventricular mass and increased risk of incident HF. Further studies should be pursued to determine whether PTH excess may be a modifiable risk factor for HF.